The domestic liquefied gas market rose sharply in September. The average price of Shandong civil gas market exceeded 5000 yuan / ton in the middle of the month. The current rise is still continuing, and the price may exceed 5500 yuan / ton in October. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 4760.00 yuan / ton on September 1 and 5273.33 yuan / ton on September 29, with an increase of 10.78% during the month and 89.92% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 29, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Automobile transportation North China 5100-5300 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation East China 5000-5350 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation South China 5220-5320 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation Shandong region 5200-5320 yuan / ton

Since this year (2021), the overall trend of domestic liquefied gas has been strong, and the price is at a relatively high level. With the arrival of the traditional sales peak season in September, the price of liquefied gas civil market continues to rise, and the overall focus has shifted upward. At present, the civil ex factory quotation of liquefied gas in Shandong is mostly above 5200 yuan / ton, rising to the highest point in the year.

In September, Shandong civil gas can be divided into two parts: the first half of the month and the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, it was adjusted horizontally, then it rose rapidly, and the rise continued to the middle of the month. In the second half of the month, the price fluctuated higher. Although the fluctuation was frequent, the overall fluctuation range was limited. At the beginning of the month, as the off-season just passed, the terminal demand did not increase significantly, the market benefits were limited, and the price was mainly adjusted in a narrow range. Since September 5, dominated by favorable market factors, Shandong civil gas market has ushered in a sharp rise. During this period, the sharp rise of international crude oil has boosted the market mentality, and some maintenance enterprises have not recovered, so the supply in the region is relatively tight. In addition, affected by the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream before the festival, the market entry is relatively positive, the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is good, the manufacturer’s mentality is strong, and the price continues to rise.

In the second half of the month, Shandong civil gas market fluctuated and rose. During the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, affected by traffic and transportation restrictions, downstream delisting and inventory digestion, manufacturers’ shipments were not smooth, profits were made one after another, and prices fell. In the later stage, with the end of the holiday, the rise of international crude oil has significantly boosted the market, and the supply in the region has not fully recovered. The market entry is more active in the downstream buying mentality. The overall transaction atmosphere in the market is mild, the manufacturer’s shipment situation improves, and the rising market will be welcomed again within the month. In September, the overall transaction atmosphere of Shandong civil gas market was mild.

In September, the LPG futures market rose violently and the trend was strong, which brought some positive support to the spot market. On September 28, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2111 was 5963, the highest price was 6260, the lowest price was 5880, the closing price was 6250, the former settlement price was 5874, the settlement price was 6046, up 376, or 6.40%, the trading volume was 234972, the position was 82530, and the daily position was increased by 9410. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Although the golden nine has ended, the silver ten is about to open. The demand for liquefied gas in the civil market is still expected to improve in the later stage, and the high operation of international crude oil has brought obvious support to the market. CP will be issued in October, and it is expected to continue to rise, boosting the market mentality. It is expected that the LPG market in Shandong will continue to rise in October and is expected to rise above 5500 yuan / ton.

According to the statistics of business agency: on September 30, the market of potassium carbonate was consolidated and operated. The mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate was about 7600-8300 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions. The supply of potash market has increased compared with the previous period, the supply has increased, the traders have delivered goods stably, the demand of downstream factories is general, and the just needed procurement has been maintained. The market trading atmosphere is cold and the actual transaction is limited. The market is relatively stable.

In the near future, the supply of potash fertilizer market is relatively stable, the operating rate of downstream factories is poor, and the demand is limited. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly fall in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (September 30): 17300 yuan / ton

On September 30, the melamine market was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, and the price increased by 19.31% compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the price of upstream urea is temporarily stable, the cost side has certain support, the export support on the demand side is stable, the domestic trade demand is insufficient, the market trading atmosphere is general, and enterprises mainly execute pending orders.

It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market may wait and see.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of TDI in East China decreased in September. At the beginning of the month, the average price of TDI market was 14333.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of TDI was 13925.00 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 2.85% in the month. As of September 30, the reference value of domestic goods with tickets is around 13400-13700 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is around 13600-13900 yuan / ton.

In September, the overall market of TDI fluctuated downward. In the first ten days, the trend was weak and stable. Although the TDI unit of many factories in the site was shut down for maintenance, the supplier’s inventory was not under pressure, and the traders intended to increase the price, but the downstream consumption of the terminal was slow, the purchase just needed to be followed up, the market trading was light, and the rise was weak. In late September, under the dual control policy of energy consumption, the downstream power and production were limited, and the demand continued to be weak. In addition, there was no significant increase in foreign trade export orders. Under the supply-demand game, the market offer continued to decline, and the market maintained a weak and stable operation at the end of the month.

The upstream toluene market first fell and then rose. In September, the price fell to 5600.20 yuan / ton and began to rebound. As of the 30th, the toluene rose to 5700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.24% compared with the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the downstream demand for toluene followed up generally, toluene declined slightly, gasoline blending and related aromatics prices rose sharply in the later stage, external news supported well, and toluene rose continuously. However, due to weak toluene market demand, negative on-site mentality, weak downstream follow-up and weak domestic spot market demand, it is expected that the toluene market will run weakly in the later stage.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the TDI market has been sorted and operated. At the end of the month, large factories have successively announced the closing price. The atmosphere in the field is mainly wait-and-see, the downstream demand is weak, and the market trading is weak. In addition, the market learned that the restart time of Canghua unit is uncertain due to steam supply problems. It is expected that the market trend in the short-term future will be stable and wait-and-see operation, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

DOP prices fell sharply in September

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell sharply in September, and DOP prices fell against the trend. As of September 29, the DOP price was 12475.00 yuan / ton, down 15.35% from 14737.50 yuan / ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. DOP prices continued to fall in September, and the DOP market went green to the end.

DOP industry chain Market

According to the price monitoring of business club, the raw materials of DOP industrial chain, phthalic anhydride and isooctanol, performed differently in September, and the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 7.93%; The price of isooctanol plummeted, down 30.9%. The proportion of comprehensive costs and the range of price changes, DOP prices fell sharply in September, down 15.35%. Overall, the market of DOP industrial chain fell sharply in September, and the market of DOP in September was obviously bad.

DOP price “cliff high” in 2021

According to the monitoring data of business society, the DOP commodity index on September 28 was 90.91, down 3.79 points from yesterday, down 19.87% from the highest point 113.46 in the cycle (2021-08-04), and up 121.03% from the lowest point 41.13 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). It can also be seen from the annual price comparison chart that the DOP price in 2021 is significantly higher than that in previous years. In most of the time, the DOP price in 21 years is twice the price in the same period in 19 and 20 years, resulting in a “cliff like” high price. In the absence of significant benefits on the demand side, the high level of DOP is more “castles in the air” and no customers pay. In the case of falling raw material prices, DOP lost the only support of high prices. The sharp drop in DOP prices in September is the specific manifestation of the “castle in the air” market.

In September, many DOP enterprises stopped production or limited production due to the double control and limitation of energy consumption. By the end of September, the overall operating rate of the plasticizer industry was about 40%, the lowest operating rate in the year. The start-up is low and the market supply is reduced, but the production of Qilu plasticizer equipment is normal, and the plasticizer inventory has a certain support for the market, and there are many DOP substitutes, so there is no shortage in the market. Moreover, the decline of DOP production reduced the demand for raw material isooctanol, increased the decline of isooctanol to a certain extent, and the decline of raw material price further stimulated the decline of DOP price.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that under the environment of dual control of energy consumption, the plasticizer market fell against the market in September, mainly due to the sharp decline in the price of raw material isooctanol, the historically high DOP lost its only support, the “castle in the air” collapsed and the DOP price fell sharply. In the future, due to the impact of energy consumption double control limit film, the operating rate of plasticizer in September was the lowest in the year. In October, the operation of DOP industry resumed one after another, the supply of DOP increased, and the decline of DOP in the future is expected to continue. However, with the increase of DOP operation, the demand for isooctanol increased, which stimulated the price of isooctanol to stop falling and rebound. DOP may resume rising due to the rise of raw material prices, but the virtual high price of DOP in 21 years is obvious, There is limited room for DOP to rise again. DOP prices are expected to stabilize after falling in October.