Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week, from 2930.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2938.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.27%, up 39.02% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On April 14, the urea commodity index was 136.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.60% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 145.45% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is sufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3150 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2880 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2920 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 7216.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 6804.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 5.71%, a year-on-year increase of 100.71% compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have been stable recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4953.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4986.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.67%, a year-on-year increase of 28.30% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 11766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11233.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.53%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is weakened and industrial demand is normal. At the end of spring ploughing, sporadic subsidies are made in the downstream. At present, the shipment of urea in some areas is blocked, the freight rate rises sharply, and the transportation situation will improve in the later stage. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea has returned to more than 160000 tons. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is high, the transportation is limited, and the future urea mainly fluctuates and falls in a narrow range.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle and late April, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the upstream market fell slightly and the cost support was general. Spring ploughing has entered the end, mainly sporadic procurement. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant and plate plant is high, and the downstream demand is normal. On the whole, the cost support of urea is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is sufficient. In the future, the urea mainly fluctuates and falls slightly.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (April 14): 8970 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 14, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8970 yuan / ton, up 0.22% from the previous trading day and 2.22% year-on-year. The disk fluctuated, the futures price fell after rising, the quotation of PVC spot market was stable and small, and the cautious wait-and-see attitude remained unchanged. The low-end price of the market was close to the high-end, but the transaction atmosphere was not warm. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4150-4250 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8800-9400 yuan / ton.

PVC market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range.

441# silicon price trend

Market analysis

Today, the price of metal silicon is weak and stable. According to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of domestic 441# metal silicon is 20920 yuan / ton, and 441# Huangpu port offers 20800-21000 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton; The quotation of Tianjin port is 20800-21100 yuan / ton, flat; Kunming quoted 20500-20700 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton; Sichuan’s quotation is 20500-20600 yuan / ton, flat; Shanghai quoted 21500-21700 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton.

There are signs that the metal silicon market has stopped falling and stabilized. Yesterday, multiple departments of the management issued a notice on doing a good job in the prevention and control of highway traffic epidemic and ensuring smooth traffic, which will alleviate the import and export of enterprises to a certain extent. In addition, the silicon price is close to the cost line, the bargaining space is small, the trading atmosphere in the silicone DMC venue has warmed up, the recent market has increased slightly, there are still many enterprises that reduce production and stop production in the aluminum alloy industry, and the epidemic still continues to affect the consumption of aluminum alloy.

Business analysts believe that the impact of the epidemic and weak demand. Although silicon manufacturers intend to stabilize, the overall trend is still weak.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (April 12): 19175 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is 0.39% lower than that of the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market is weak. Shanghai TDI factory has reduced the negative operation, and the market supply is tight. However, due to the impact of public health events, the transportation and logistics are blocked, and the shipment of manufacturers is not smooth. In addition, the downstream demand of terminals is weak, the market purchase is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. The mentality of cargo holders is mainly wait-and-see, and individual offers are sorted out downward. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 18800-19000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19000-19500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: the TDI market is weak in the later stage, and the specific attention shall be paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the APR 11th, with the spot price of 73720 yuan / ton, down 0.1% from the previous day, up 5.42% from the beginning of the year and up 10.47% year-on-year.

Oil prices rose, and Lun copper rebounded the following week, closing up 0.43%. Some smelters have entered the centralized maintenance period, and the import window has been closed for a long time, and the import volume of refined copper will also be low. Affected by the epidemic in the downstream, logistics and transportation are blocked, and the operating rate of copper processing enterprises in some areas has decreased significantly. With the outbreak of domestic epidemic, Limited Logistics and transportation, poor downstream transactions and weak supply and demand, copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate.