1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong market was 1087.5 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of Shandong market was about 1022.5 yuan / ton. The price fell by 5.98%, and the price increased by 121.08% compared with the same period last year. On March 3, the caustic soda commodity index was 147.12, down 4.32 points from yesterday, down 44.58% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 125.96% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices are weak this week. The average price in Shandong is about 1050-900 tons / market. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 870-1200 yuan / ton. The market supply pressure is large, and the shipment of enterprises is slower than before.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 8th week of 2022 (2.21-2.25), there were 1 kind of goods rising, 2 kinds of goods falling and 2 kinds of goods falling to 0. The main commodities rising are: hydrochloric acid (1.53%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 2.43%) and PVC (- 2.31%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.64%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the inventory pressure of caustic soda manufacturers is large, the demand of downstream alumina enterprises is weaker than before, and the demand of downstream alumina is general. It is comprehensively expected that the follow-up weak operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the demand of downstream market.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 3): 10040 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on March 3, the market price of phosphoric acid was 10040 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 97.42%. At present, the price of raw yellow phosphorus has increased and the cost support has been strengthened, but the downstream demand has been slow, so the market has been restrained. Up to now, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 38000-40000 yuan / ton, The market price of phosphoric acid is about 10000-12000 yuan / ton.

The phosphoric acid market is expected to be stable and bullish in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, spot nickel rose slightly on the 2nd. The spot price of nickel was reported at 183216.67 yuan / ton, up 1.83% from the previous trading day and 31.81% year-on-year.

The situation in Russia and Ukraine was chaotic, the interruption of transportation exacerbated supply concerns, and Lun nickel soared 4.64% overnight. Lun nickel inventory is low, and Russian nickel has shifted from Europe and the United States to China. In the spot market, the carrier ships at a high price, the receiver purchases on demand, the trading atmosphere is light, and the transaction is biased. The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine has intensified, raising the risk of inflation and supply interruption, boosting the price of non-ferrous commodities, while the domestic economy remains flexible and boosting market expectations. It is expected that the nickel price will still fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 1): 8480 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8480 yuan / ton on March 1, up 0.36% from the previous trading day and down 3.09% year-on-year. At present, the macro atmosphere has weakened, and the fundamentals of PVC have not changed greatly. The low-end price of PVC market has increased, and the market is stable as a whole. The transaction atmosphere has improved with the continuous recovery of demand, but the transaction at high prices is still not smooth. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4050-4150 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8250-8750 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to be stable with small fluctuation.

The market of ammonium chloride is stable. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic ammonium chloride and dry ammonium chloride was 1257 yuan / ton on the 28th, which was stable compared with the previous day. The price of raw liquid ammonia fluctuated slightly, basically stable, and the cost side was weakly supported. The price of urea has been strong recently, which supports ammonium chloride. The start of spring ploughing and tight supply mainly promote the strong market of ammonium chloride.

It is predicted that the domestic chemical fertilizer market is basically in the stage of strong demand. Due to the impact of the international environment, the supply of chemical fertilizer is expected to be tight in the near future. If the international market is tight in the later stage and the price rises, the domestic chemical fertilizer market will be stimulated to a certain extent. At that time, the ammonium chloride market may continue to rise; At present, affected by the domestic demand in the peak season, the ammonium chloride market will maintain a strong trend in the short term.