The price of chloroform fell sharply in November. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 30, the price of chloroform in Shandong was 3100 yuan / ton, down 50% from 6200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since the beginning of winter in November, the market performance of chloroform has been depressed, mainly due to three reasons: first, the price of raw materials has fallen, and the cost support has collapsed; 2、 The supply side increased, the early maintenance enterprises gradually resumed production, and the overall operating rate of the industry was higher than that in the early stage; 3、 Winter comes, air conditioning is mainly off-season, and the downstream demand is low. To sum up, the negative factors in the three aspects of the industrial chain have become the three mountains that overwhelm chloroform.

Since November, the price of methanol has fallen sharply, and the cost has been dragged by chloroform. According to the business agency, as of November 30, the price of methanol was 2775 yuan / ton, down 12.09% from 3156 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The start-up of domestic methane chloride plant is 60 ~ 70%, and the supply side is higher than that in October.

Downstream refrigerants are generally delivered in the off-season, and the demand for chloroform is reduced; The consumption of downstream fine chemicals is small, and they are basically purchased on demand. On the whole, the downstream demand for chloroform is not strong.

Future forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the supply of chloroform is relatively loose, the cost is low, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the chloroform market will continue to be weak in the short term. However, due to the sharp release of market sentiment due to the decline in the early stage, it will be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 30, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic high-class power product, was 89000.00 yuan / ton. This month, the market price of lithium iron phosphate was mainly stable, rising in a narrow range, and the price increased by 3.49% compared with the same period last month. The overall market negotiation focus was high, the inventory was normal, and the downstream just needed to purchase.

In the first ten days of November, the price of lithium iron phosphate operated stably, the mainstream price was 89000 yuan / ton, the manufacturer shipped actively, the supply side was normal, the negotiation focus was stable, the downstream just needed procurement, the procurement atmosphere was general, the upstream market focus was high, the price rose, the lithium iron phosphate market was stable, medium and strong, and the downstream just needed procurement was mainly.

The price of upstream lithium carbonate rises slightly, the center of gravity is high, the lithium carbonate market is still in the demand range, the market inventory is still good, and most practitioners are in a wait-and-see state and operate cautiously.

In the middle of November, the price of lithium iron phosphate operated stably, the mainstream price was 89000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer shipped actively. At present, the supply side is normal, the focus of negotiation is stable, the downstream just needs procurement, the procurement atmosphere is general, the focus of the upstream market is high, the price rises, the lithium iron phosphate Market has certain support, and the overall market is stable and small.

The price of upstream lithium carbonate rises slightly, and the center of gravity is on the high side. The lithium carbonate market is still in the demand range, the market inventory is still good, most practitioners are in a wait-and-see state, and the future mentality and confidence remain.

In late November, the price of lithium iron phosphate operated stably, the mainstream price was 89000 yuan / ton, the supply side was normal, and the manufacturers shipped actively. At present, the negotiation focus was stable, the downstream just needed procurement, the procurement atmosphere was general, the focus of the upstream market was high, the price rose, the lithium iron phosphate market had certain support, and the overall market was strong.

The price of upstream lithium carbonate rises slightly, the focus is high, the lithium carbonate market is still in the demand range, the market inventory is still good, most practitioners are in a wait-and-see state, and the short-term lithium carbonate price is still in a strong consolidation state, continuing the upward trend.

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that it is expected that lithium iron phosphate will continue to operate stably in December, with a narrow range higher. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

Data monitoring shows that on the 29th, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China was about 18025 yuan / ton. Recently, the market demand was weak, the transaction was general, the manufacturer’s price was slightly adjusted, and the fluctuation range in the past three days was 0.14%, which was very small.

From the perspective of industry, the market trend of petrochemical raw materials has weakened recently, and the cost pressure of raw materials related to water treatment has decreased; Due to the influence of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, the production is limited and stopped in many places, the commencement of basic chemicals is affected, the market price difference is large, limited by the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products is stable, some are adjusted, and the adjustment range is small. Among them, the market of raw material acrylonitrile has been maintained at about 15250 yuan / ton in the past three days, and the decline rate is about 200 yuan / ton so far this month; It is reported that in the fourth quarter, major manufacturers conducted centralized accidental maintenance of devices, and the output did not increase significantly as scheduled. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. At present, Sinopec East China implements 15100 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last month.

Raw acrylic acid: the recent acrylic acid Market stopped falling and rose. As of the 29th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 17000 yuan / ton, up 0.79% from 16866.67 yuan / ton on the 26th. Driven by the rising price of raw propylene, the cost of acrylic acid is rising, and the plant unit is gradually entering the maintenance stage. It is expected that the short-term market of acrylic acid may be stable and upward.

As for the future market, the support of raw materials is insufficient and the downstream demand is general. At present, the polyacrylamide market mainly fluctuates slightly, and the overall market is slightly weak; Subject to the environmental protection in winter and the dual control policies of many provinces, cities and regions in China, the market generally predicts that the market price will rise after the manufacturer’s production is limited in the later stage.

Spot aluminum prices rose 3.67% during the week

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on November 26 was 19233.33 yuan / ton, up 3.67% from the average market price of 18553.33 yuan / ton on November 19.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. At the peak of this year (October 19, 2021), the average price of aluminum ingot Market is 124240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 20.65% recently. Based on the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021), the cumulative increase rate was reduced to 22.30%.

Production data in October

According to the data of the International Aluminum Association, the global primary aluminum output in October 2021 was 5689kt, compared with 5617000t in the same period last year, with a year-on-year increase of 1.28%. From January to October, the global primary aluminum output reached 56295000 tons, up from 54121 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.02%.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in October 2021 was 3.132 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 32.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%.

In October, the aluminum output was 4.84 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 49.669 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%.

In October, the output of aluminum alloy was 911000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 9.245 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%.

In October, China’s alumina output was 6.291 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 65.153 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%.

List of import and export data in October

According to the new data of the General Administration of customs, in October 2021, China exported 479600 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%; From January to October, the cumulative export was 4.547 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%.

In October, China imported 297000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8%; From January to October, the total import was 2572300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%.

In October, China imported 9.54 million tons of aluminum ore and its concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%; From January to October, the cumulative import of aluminum ore and its concentrate was 91.06 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%.

Positive factors this week

In China, the real estate policy is relaxed, and the news is good for market expectations; On the international news front, the rising US inflation combined with the Indonesian President’s reiteration of the ban on bauxite export in 2022 boosted market sentiment.

At present, in the domestic spot market, the overall trading is weak. Although the cargo holders are active in shipping, the downstream procurement is cautious and mainly bargain hunting and on-demand procurement. Recent inventory is at a high level year-on-year, with a slight decline in ring ratio.

Future forecast

In the early stage, the aluminum price fell rapidly, and recently the price began to bottom and stabilize. However, at present, the actual demand is still relatively general, and the social inventory is still high. It is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the rising space is narrowed, and the operation range is 18800-19500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (November 25): 9330 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, the opening price of PVC main contract 2201 rose on November 25, with the closing price of 9069 yuan / ton. The futures price rose, which continued to boost the rising atmosphere in the spot market. The price rose by 0.11% compared with the previous day. The increase range of enterprises was about 50-150 yuan / ton. The increase range of offer of cargo holders was small and cautious. Downstream procurement continued to maintain rigid demand, Bargain hunting, trading atmosphere is OK.

Forecast: the PVC market is expected to run in a strong shock in the short term.