According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market fluctuated this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell in an arc. As of March 25, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8990 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 5,39% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: the domestic market of raw propylene is running this week. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market is 8000-8200 yuan / ton. Supported by the cost, the propylene market stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of propylene industry declined. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the transportation was not smooth, the downstream operation was limited, and the demand was not driven enough. The propylene market is expected to be weak and volatile in the near future.

Crude oil in the upstream of the far end continues to increase, and the price of propylene, the direct raw material of PP, has not increased significantly. At present, there is no substantial change in the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the resulting market uncertainty remains. The market also has differences on stopping the decline and returning the rise of crude oil. Generally speaking, the downstream cost side is stronger, but the benefit transmission is not smooth, and PP is still subject to narrow shock consolidation. In terms of supply, the current supply of PP continues the abundant pattern in the early stage, there are many inventories in enterprises and midstream, and enterprises take the initiative to reduce the burden, which does not reach the expected scale. The operating rate of the industry is still high, and the profit of petrochemical plants is under pressure. The inventory pressure of merchants is the same, and buyers are more resistant to high price goods, so they are more cautious in taking goods. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises have not taken goods in a centralized manner before. Superimposed on the recent domestic rebound in health events, logistics and production in some areas have been affected. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, enterprises are blocked from going to the warehouse, businesses reduce prices and take orders, and the market is tangled.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of March 25, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was similar to that of wire drawing materials. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8916.67 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.49% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 3,78%. The demand of downstream textile enterprises is relatively stable this week. Terminal enterprises tend to take goods just to maintain production, but the market is abundant and competitive. The current demand for medical fiber products has increased, and the increase of downstream orders has also boosted the operating rate of fiber enterprises. On the whole, the current supply of PP fiber material is abundant, and the cost side has bottomed out. It is expected that the operation will still be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market was generally strong this week. As of March 25, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10216.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 5.15% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. At present, the health events in various countries are still not optimistic. China has a large number of local confirmed cases in March, and the epidemic prevention situation can not be relaxed. At the same time, it has a certain pulling effect on the demand for medical meltblown cloth materials. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation pattern of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may be strong, mainly finishing and operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that: the domestic polypropylene market is generally in a narrow range this week, the change of raw material propylene market is limited, the cost side of crude oil is positive and the downward transmission is poor, and the support of PP raw material side is general. The demand of terminal enterprises remains weak, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the goods are taken carefully. PP enterprises and businesses have accumulated stock in stock, and their offer confidence is not strong. In the short term, the domestic market is intertwined, and it is expected that the PP market may continue to operate in a narrow range.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (March 24): 5110 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid price is relatively upward, and the average market price in East China has increased by 2.82% in a single day. Due to the maintenance of Nanjing acetyl and Shanghai Huayi acetic acid plants, the tight supply in East China has boosted the mentality of the industry, the quotation in other parts of China has increased, the downstream demand has been followed up rationally, the mentality of the industry is optimistic, and the market atmosphere is mainly wait-and-see.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will wait and see consolidation or rise slightly, with specific attention to the market supply.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 23): 10200 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on March 23, the market price of phosphoric acid was 10200 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 94.29%. Recently, the raw material yellow phosphorus rose to 37000 yuan / ton, and the cost support was improved. However, the increase of phosphoric acid market was not obvious. The buyer and the seller continued to keep a cautious wait-and-see state, and the market rose steadily. Up to now, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 35000-37000 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid is about 9800-11000 yuan / ton.

The phosphoric acid market is expected to be stable in the short term.

Trade name: diammonium phosphate

Latest price: 3640 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of diammonium phosphate was stable on March 22, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. At present, there are sufficient orders for diammonium, the raw materials operate at a high level, the cost support is good, and the diammonium market is strong. Most enterprises suspend quotation and do not receive payment for the time being, and mainly issue early-stage orders. Today, the mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3600-3650 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

Future forecast: diammonium phosphate will run at a high level in the short term.

Product Name: dimethyl carbonate

Latest price (March 21): 5833 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on March 21, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market fell. The average ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was 5833 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.23%. On the 21st, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was weak and operated downward, the logistics and transportation were limited, the delivery of dimethyl carbonate was slow, and the inventory gradually accumulated.

Future forecast: at present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate is general, the overall operating load of the downstream is not high, and the consumption capacity of raw materials is limited. The DMC data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic DMC market will continue to be weak, mainly through narrow adjustment, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes on the supply and demand side.