On January 19, the rare earth index was 855 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 14.50% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 215.50% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The domestic rare earth index is rising, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series is rising, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising by 20000 yuan / ton to 920000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is rising by 32500 yuan / ton to 1127500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 915000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 1020000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1170000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal neodymium is 1240000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide is 3 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.98 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.8 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is temporarily stable, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market rises, the price of terbium series rises, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise in the later stage.

Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price: 6050 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable on January 18, which was stable compared with the previous trading day. Today, the price of raw liquid chlorine is generally reduced. The market of raw liquid wax was generally stable, and some manufacturers increased sporadically. The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is poor, and the on-site trading of chlorinated paraffin is cold. At present, the operating rate of enterprises is low, and the quotation varies greatly among regions. The chlorinated paraffin market is generally stable, with sporadic adjustment in the short term.

Future forecast: it is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will fluctuate steadily in the short term.

In mid January, domestic dimethyl ether prices plunged sharply, the market returned to weakness, and the price in Henan fell back to 3600 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4083.33 yuan / ton on January 14 and 3653.33 yuan / ton on January 17, with a decrease of 10.53% and 11.49% compared with December 1.

As of January 17, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region 4080 yuan / ton

Hebei region 3850 yuan / ton

Henan region 3650-3660 yuan / ton

In the middle of January, dimethyl ether ushered in a sharp decline, and the early increase was basically reversed. Only one weekend, the dimethyl ether market fell sharply, and the price on the 17th was still weak. Although the international crude oil price rose slightly, it brought limited support to the market. The weakening of the civil LPG market brought some bad news to the market. The cost methanol market fluctuates mainly in a narrow range, and the market lacks obvious benefits. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, the mentality is cautious, and it is mainly wait-and-see. Henan market fell back to 3600 yuan / ton over the weekend, and Hebei and Shandong also followed the downward trend, falling back below 4000 yuan / ton.

The methanol market first fell and then rose this week. The main reason is that the transportation is blocked due to various reasons, the upstream warehouse discharge slows down, and forced to reduce the price for sales. Although there are few goods arriving at the port, the southwest gas head devices have been restored one after another, and the mentality of the operators is general. According to the monitoring data of business society, from January 7 to January 14, 2022, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 2387 yuan / ton to 2382 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.21% during the cycle, a price month on month decrease of 9.06% and a year-on-year increase of 0.63%.

At present, the price of liquefied gas market is weak and downward, and the raw material methanol market fluctuates in a narrow range, which brings some bad news to the dimethyl ether Market. The downstream has a cautious mentality, low enthusiasm to enter the market, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is poor. Near the Spring Festival, the manufacturers have a certain inventory discharge demand. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will still be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 14, 2022, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 30600 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 9, 2022 (organosilicon DMC reference price of 26840 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 3840 yuan / ton, or 14.01%. Compared with January 1, 2022 (the reference price of silicone DMC is 25800 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 4800 yuan / ton, an increase of 18.60%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that this week, the domestic silicone DMC market showed an upward trend as a whole. At the beginning of the week (10th), Shandong large chemical factory increased the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC by 2400 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC of the factory was adjusted to 30000 yuan / ton. The market situation of organosilicon DMC returned to the 30000 era. Then, driven by the price increase of large factories, the overall rising atmosphere in the venue was strong, the operators also increased confidence in the future trend, and the reluctance to sell gradually rose, With the support of early orders, some factories received orders in limited quantities and the supply pressure was small. The organosilicon suppliers in the field also raised the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC by 500-1000 yuan / ton. On the 13th and 14th, Shandong big factory continued to raise the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC to 31600 yuan / ton. This week, the factory has increased by 4000 yuan / ton. As of the 14th, the ex factory price of silicone DMC was around 30000-31600 yuan / ton, and the average price was 30600 yuan / ton, an increase of 14% this week. At present, the phenomenon of plate sealing in the field is common. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream goods preparation has been opened one after another, and the demand side is optimistic.

In terms of index, the silicone DMC commodity index on January 13 was 153.51, up 2.48 points from yesterday, down 53.37% from the highest point of 329.21 in the cycle (2021-10-10), and up 118.05% from the lowest point of 70.40 on July 27, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream metal silicon, at present, the metal silicon market is relatively light, and the silicon price fell slightly this week. On January 14, the transaction price of 441# metal silicon in East China was 20500-20700 yuan / ton, and the average spot price of silicon was 20990 yuan / ton, down 0.95% on a weekly basis and 7.06% over the same period last month. The price of 441# silicon in various regions on the 14th is as follows: the price range of #441 metal silicon in Huangpu port is 20600-20800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20700 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 20500-20700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20600 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 20300-20500 yuan / ton, with an average of 20400 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 20300-20400 yuan / ton, with an average of 20350 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 21800-22000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 21900 yuan / ton.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

Future forecast: at present, the on-site supply of silicone DMC is tight and continues to support the market. Many large factories have closed their plates and received orders in limited quantities. The silicone DMC data division of business society believes that in the short term, the silicone DMC market is mostly strong and mainly operated. Specifically, more attention should be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of business agency, 99.9% of the factory price including tax in mainstream areas was 48000 yuan / ton on the 13th, down 5.57% from the beginning of the week.

In the early stage, affected by environmental protection policies, the price rise led to more cautious orders from downstream users. In the past three days, the operation of magnesium city was chaotic and there were signs of correction. The overall spot on the supply side remained low. Considering that the factory inventory and capital pressure were small, many traders had a strong willingness to stabilize prices.

However, this morning, shenmulan charcoal group issued a notice on the price increase of orchid charcoal. Due to the recent rise in coal prices, environmental protection inspectors and the closure and rectification of some enterprises, the total operating rate of orchid charcoal is less than 60%. From 0:00 on January 16, the factory tax included Guide price of orchid charcoal is reported as 1850 yuan / ton. The market is worried about the production of blue carbon in Shaanxi and has certain expectations for the rising cost of magnesium ingots. It is not ruled out that the price of magnesium ingots will rise in the future.

Future forecast

On the whole, the price of magnesium ingots is high in the short term. We will wait and see the follow-up of future transactions and policy news.