441# silicon price trend

Market analysis

Driven by the pressure of raw material cost and the mismatch between supply and demand, the rise of electricity price delayed the commencement of silicon plants, and the reluctance to sell silicon plants at the supply side appeared. 441# metal silicon prices continued to rise. Today, the average price in the domestic market is 23750 yuan / ton, which has risen all the way back to the market since, with an increase of nearly 3000 yuan / ton.

With the rising price of silicon, downstream and traders have been cautious about the rising price. Recently, silicone began to cool down. The quotation of DMC was 38000 yuan / ton, the number of closed orders in the field increased, the downstream inquiry was ok, and the actual transaction operation was cautious. Polysilicon remained at a high level, with an average market price of 196000 yuan / ton. On the whole, the demand for silicon materials was stable, but the increase released by the expansion of large factories was less than expected, and the future market may rise weakly.

Future forecast

On the whole, the price of metallic silicon is rising rapidly at this stage, and the downstream has different tolerance to high prices. It is expected that the rising trend of metallic silicon will narrow and tend to be cautious in the short term.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 14033 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam rose on March 8, up 0.98% compared with the previous trading day. As the international oil price continues to rise, the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise. Due to excessive cost pressure, caprolactam enterprises are in a state of loss, and manufacturers have raised prices one after another. In the short term, the raw material market may continue the upward trend, and caprolactam will continue to operate under pressure. Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam quoted 14600 yuan / ton today.

Future forecast: the price of caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (March 7): 4322 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the price of acetic acid is up, and the average market price in East China rose by 0.93% in a single day. Last weekend, individual manufacturers in the domestic acetic acid market rose. On Monday, the industry waited and waited for the market news. The rise of upstream raw material methanol has a great impact on the rise of domestic acetic acid price. The upward adjustment range is about 50-100 yuan / ton, and the market is up. The operating rate of acetic acid industry is on the high side, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is gradually restored, and the market is mainly negotiated.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market may rise slightly, with specific attention to the market supply.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong market was 1087.5 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of Shandong market was about 1022.5 yuan / ton. The price fell by 5.98%, and the price increased by 121.08% compared with the same period last year. On March 3, the caustic soda commodity index was 147.12, down 4.32 points from yesterday, down 44.58% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 125.96% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices are weak this week. The average price in Shandong is about 1050-900 tons / market. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 870-1200 yuan / ton. The market supply pressure is large, and the shipment of enterprises is slower than before.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 8th week of 2022 (2.21-2.25), there were 1 kind of goods rising, 2 kinds of goods falling and 2 kinds of goods falling to 0. The main commodities rising are: hydrochloric acid (1.53%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 2.43%) and PVC (- 2.31%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.64%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the inventory pressure of caustic soda manufacturers is large, the demand of downstream alumina enterprises is weaker than before, and the demand of downstream alumina is general. It is comprehensively expected that the follow-up weak operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the demand of downstream market.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (March 3): 10040 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on March 3, the market price of phosphoric acid was 10040 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 97.42%. At present, the price of raw yellow phosphorus has increased and the cost support has been strengthened, but the downstream demand has been slow, so the market has been restrained. Up to now, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 38000-40000 yuan / ton, The market price of phosphoric acid is about 10000-12000 yuan / ton.

The phosphoric acid market is expected to be stable and bullish in the short term.