The focus of negotiation in the domestic MIBK market has declined, continued to be in a downturn, and the overall change is limited. The reference value of the East China market is 10800-11000 yuan / ton.

This week, the upstream of domestic MIBK continued to decline, the industrial operating rate remained at about 80%, the supply was sufficient, the social inventory was high, the demand was sluggish and difficult to change, there were still many negative factors for the market, the short-term MIBK market changes were limited, and the short-term market is expected to be dominated by weak operation.

The raw material side continued to decline, the cost support fell, acetone continued to fall, and the market negotiated to 4950-5050 yuan / ton. The raw material side factory also lowered for many times, and the demand side still showed no signs of improvement. The mentality of the shippers was bad, the focus of trading and investment continued to decline, and it was difficult to mention terminal procurement.

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

The terminal demand is general, and the downstream orders are dominated by rigid demand. The short-term demand changes are limited. At present, it is difficult to make major changes in costs. The operation enthusiasm of the cargo carriers is general, and the mentality is mainly wait-and-see. Short term weak adjustment operation

According to the bulk commodity list data of business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1270.00 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1246.67 yuan / ton, down 1.84%. The current price fell by 1.84% month on month, and the current price fell by 8.16% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. From the above figure, we can see that the market fluctuation of formaldehyde in the past two months is not large, and the market fell this week. As of July 7, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1230-1260 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has fallen, the cost support is poor, the formaldehyde market has fallen under the influence of methanol, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. It is hard to maintain the rigid demand for procurement. The formaldehyde market is generally traded, and the market has weakened slightly.

Upstream methanol situation: the domestic methanol market fell, the mainland transaction volume again, while the coastal market performed in general. Under the background of stable cost support, replenishment demand and mainland rigid demand, the volume of transactions in the main production areas is large; The terminal receiving price is subject to high inventory and general price performance.

This week, the methanol market was difficult to cope with the pressure and began to decline. The downstream plate factories are generally operating at present, and they are more wait-and-see about the formaldehyde market. The bargaining mood is strong, and the market inventory digestion is poor. In order to ship, the formaldehyde manufacturers reduced their quotations, and the formaldehyde market is weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has declined, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants has continued to be poor. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of shanghaishe predict that the recent decline in formaldehyde prices in Shandong is mainly weak.

On July 6, the mainstream quotation range of 1 × tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 189000-194000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 191500 yuan / ton, down 12250 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 5th, the US dollar hit another 20-year high, non-ferrous metals fell across the board under pressure, and Shanghai tin closed down 5.34%. From the fundamental point of view, the current downstream demand performance is general, and the overall market performance is weak. Although the tin price has been declining, there is no sign of demand improvement in the downstream, and the purchase on demand is still maintained. It is expected that the future market will continue to be under pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium on June 1 was 4266 yuan / ton, and the average market price of powdered monoammonium on June 30 was 4666 yuan / ton. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 9.37% this month.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4200 yuan / ton on June 1 and 4366 yuan / ton on June 30. The price of diammonium phosphate rose 3.97% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise at a high level this month. In early June, due to the shortage of raw phosphorus ore, the price rose, and the price of monoammonium phosphate rose again under cost pressure. The manufacturer’s inventory is tight, there is no sales pressure for the time being, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing. The quotation of some enterprises was suspended and the receipt of orders was restricted. Since mid June, the rise of monoammonium phosphate has been suspended. The price of raw sulfur and synthetic ammonia fell, and the cost support weakened. In late June, the raw sulfur continued to decline, and the price of monoammonium phosphate began to loosen and fell slightly. As of June 30, the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan is about 4700 yuan / ton, the market quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 4550 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Anhui is about 4750 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

The price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise at a high level this month. In the first half of June, the domestic market spot of diammonium chloride was relatively small, and the downstream purchase was on demand, and there was still resistance to high prices. Most manufacturers suspended their quotation and restricted the receipt of orders. They mainly issued early orders, and the quotation of dealers increased. In the second half of June, the supply of raw phosphate rock was in short supply, the price continued to run at a high level, and diammonium phosphate continued to rise. Downstream procurement is cautious, domestic demand is weakened, the focus is shifted to the export market, and dealers are cautious to wait and see. As of June 30, the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou was about 4700 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Yunnan was about 4700 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

The price of raw phosphate rock rose this month. The market price of 30% phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1066 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% phosphorus ore is around 920-970 yuan / ton. At present, a mining enterprise in Guizhou has resumed construction, with only a small amount of goods for external sales. Some mining enterprises in Guangxi mainly receive orders in advance, and the orders are scheduled to the middle of July. Recently, phosphorus ore of Hebei mining enterprises is mainly supplied to shareholders and customers, and there is no external supply source for the time being.

The price of raw sulfur fell this month. The domestic sulfur quotation is on the high side, and there is resistance in the downstream. Some operators buy at a low price when entering the market, and the pressure of high price sulfur increases. In addition, the downstream sulfuric acid market is weak, and the demand is limited. The negative purchasing sentiment in the market led to an increase in the inventory of sulfur refineries. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, domestic refineries lowered their quotations, and the overall market atmosphere was weak.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of business agency, the supply of ammonium phosphate raw material phosphate rock is tight recently, the price of raw sulfur is reduced, and the cost pressure is weakened. The market is in the off-season of phosphate fertilizer demand, with weak demand side and weak trading on the floor. It is expected that the high price of ammonium phosphate will run downward in the short term.

1、 Price summary on July 1:

Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company quoted 8750 yuan / ton, Qilu Petrochemical Company quoted 8750 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 9000 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 9000 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery quoted 9000 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, many oil fields in Libya suffered from force majeure, and the oil supply fell sharply, adding to market concerns about the insufficient production capacity of opec+, and the international oil price rose last Friday.

Sinopec East China toluene cut 150 yuan / ton today.

The rise of crude oil has certain support for the market, but there is no good news on the demand side, and toluene is weak and volatile.