This week, the trend of domestic propane market is strong, and the price focus of propane in Shandong market is moving upward. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane Market in Shandong was 5830.75 yuan / ton on August 29 and 5963.25 yuan / ton on September 2, with a weekly increase of 2.27%, up 19.55% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 2, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., September 2nd

Central China., 6000-6200 yuan / ton

North China., 5900-6000 yuan / ton

Shandong region., 5900-6100 yuan / ton

Northeast China., 5900-6050 yuan / ton

This week, the trend of domestic propane market is strong. Shandong propane market rose first and then fell, and the center of gravity has moved upward. In the early part of the week, driven by the rise of international crude oil, the ex factory price of propane rose one after another, and the average price broke through the 6000 yuan / ton barrier on the 31st. Downstream buyers are more active in entering the market under the rising mentality, manufacturers’ shipments are smooth, and inventories are reduced. However, in the later period, the international crude oil weakened one after another, and the cost support was insufficient. In addition, with the end of replenishment, downstream companies withdrew from the market one after another to wait and see. The propane Market lacked the power to continue to rise, and the price fell at the weekend.

Saudi Aramco’s CP announced in September 2022 that propane and butane both fell. Propane was US $650 / T, down US $20 / T from the previous month; Butane was US $630 / T, down US $30 / T from last month.

At present, the international crude oil trend is weak, and the support brought by the cost side is insufficient. After the replenishment in the downstream, most of them withdraw from the market to wait and see, and the market trading atmosphere is general. However, there is no pressure on the supply side of Shandong market at present, and most of the upstream inventory is under control. In terms of demand, it will take some time to improve. It is expected that the propane market will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend in August

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business agencies, the price trend of cryolite in August fell first and then rose. On August 31, the average market price in Henan was 7675 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.33% over the price of 7650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and an increase of 18.53% over the previous year.

In August, the domestic cryolite market was put into operation on a wait-and-see basis. The supply and demand in the market were relatively balanced. The price of cryolite fluctuated little, and the overall price was high. In terms of supply, the raw materials were tight, the fuel cost was high, the enterprise cost pressure was high, the cryolite manufacturer’s inventory was tight, and the downstream demand was acceptable. The purchase in the market was mainly based on demand, and the enterprise’s shipment was relatively smooth. The manufacturer’s quotation in the month was slightly adjusted according to its own shipment situation. As of 31st, The ex factory price of cryolite in Henan is 7200-8700 yuan / ton, and the range price is increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous month; The ex factory quotation in Shandong is about 8000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

Upstream and downstream market analysis

On the upstream side, the domestic soda ash price declined as a whole and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. On August 31, the average price of soda ash was 2620 yuan / ton, which was 6.09% lower than the price of 2790 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. During the month, soda ash was mainly operated in a weak way, and the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing was not high. Most of them followed up on demand, and the manufacturers negotiated shipment. The trading atmosphere on the site was weak, and the market focus moved downward.

The downstream aluminum market experienced wide fluctuations in August. On August 31, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18453.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.75% over the average price of 18316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In August, the overall price fluctuated, the domestic downstream consumption of aluminum was weak, the regional epidemic, high temperature and power limitation interfered with the downstream construction, the aluminum rod and aluminum profile factories in Sichuan were basically shut down, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots was relatively stable. Recently, there was a slight accumulation of stocks, and the price of aluminum ingots mainly fluctuated.

Future forecast

At present, the cryolite market is operating at a high level, the supply of raw materials is tight, the production pressure of enterprises is large, the downstream demand is stable, and the purchase in the market is followed up on demand. From the supply and demand performance, the supply and demand in the market are relatively balanced. It is expected that the cryolite market will mainly wait and see in the later period, and the cryolite price will temporarily operate stably.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on August 31, the average p value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 4133.33 yuan / ton, down 16.67 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

From the perspective of cost, the price of international crude oil futures market fell sharply yesterday, and traders took profits after the sharp rise of oil price in the previous trading day. Because the global economic recession under high inflation continues to weaken the prospects of global oil demand, and Iraq’s oil supply has not been affected by the domestic turmoil. Driven by the rise of crude oil futures market, the spot valuation of light distillate oil in Asia rose. The spot price of naphtha rose to $70.47/barrel, and the spot price difference of naphtha rose to + 2.57/barrel.

The power limitation policy caused by weak demand and high temperature makes polyester production at a low level and the demand side is weak. At the end of the month, as the temperature dropped slightly, some cities relaxed the power limit, and the operating rate of looms in the lower reaches of Zhejiang and Jiangsu increased. Supply side restart and maintenance coexist. Weihe Binzhou chemical was overhauled at the end of August, Tongliao Jinmei chemical was shut down on August 26, Hubei sanning 600000 tons unit was restarted and discharged, and Zhongyan hongsifang 300000 tons / year ethylene glycol unit was restarted on August 28. In terms of inventory, as of August 29, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.0431 million tons, a decrease of 39800 tons or 3.68% compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 35500 tons or 3.29% compared with last Thursday. The main port inventory continued to be removed, and the pressure on the supply side was reduced.

3、 Forecast: the fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that the low-level shock consolidation will continue.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on August 30, the average price of petroleum asphalt manufacturers in Shandong was 4450 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day and 31.16% year-on-year. On August 30, the closing price of domestic asphalt futures was 3959 yuan / ton, up 0.92%.

The international crude oil rose strongly, and the asphalt futures market followed the rise, but the range was not large. In terms of spot goods, the quotations of most manufacturers are stable, and the quotations of a few enterprises are increased by 20-30 yuan / ton. The market demand performance is different, and the overall trading is general.

The short-term domestic asphalt market is dominated by high-level consolidation.

On the cost side, the delivery of pure benzene at the end of the month was basically completed, and the downstream demand was not improved well. The price of pure benzene refined in Shandong Province fell by a wide margin at the weekend. Today, the domestic price of pure benzene is 7350-7550 yuan / ton.

The cost side is soft, but the operating rate of aniline is decreasing, the supply and demand side is temporarily stable, and the price continues to be stable. Today, the price in Shandong is 10000-10200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 10000-11000 yuan / ton.