1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on September 12 was 12316 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on September 19 was 12400 yuan/ton. Caprolactam prices rose 0.68% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene fluctuated slightly, and the cost side of caprolactam was stable. Downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing and take goods as needed. At present, the spot market of caprolactam is in consolidation and operation, and the industry is mainly wait-and-see. As of September 19, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12900 yuan/ton, which was withdrawn by acceptance. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 12900 yuan/ton, and the 300000 ton/year unit is normally started, and the acceptance is self raised. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 12900 yuan/ton, and the 450000 ton/year unit is normally started, and the acceptance is self raised.

This week, the raw material pure benzene rose and then fell back in a narrow range. Affected by the typhoon weather, the arrival of the ship was delayed, and the shipment in Shandong was good, so the pure benzene rose after the festival. However, the crude oil fell sharply, coupled with the softening of styrene, driving the center of gravity of pure benzene to weaken, and near the weekend, pure benzene fell back slightly. This week, the port inventory of pure benzene in East China increased by 5000 tons to 64600 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene stabilized at 7750 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the recent price rise of caprolactam spot market has been postponed. The market of raw material pure benzene fluctuates, and the cost side waits and sees. Before the festival, the downstream stock began to increase one after another. Caprolactam manufacturers offered firm prices and played a game of supply and demand on the market. It is expected that the short-term caprolactam market price will be dominated by narrow fluctuations.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, from September 9 to 16, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market rose from 9740 yuan/ton to 9760 yuan/ton, up 0.21% in the week, and the price remained stable month on month, down 23.63% year on year.

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market was reorganized after rising, mainly in shock. The raw material pure benzene is slightly favorable. The downstream chemical fiber steel needs to be purchased. There is no obvious pressure on cyclohexanone for the time being. The manufacturer’s low price is reduced, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of September 16:

Region, price

In East China, 9700-9900 yuan/ton is sent by spot exchange

In South China, 9950-10050 yuan/ton of spot exchange will be sent to

In Shandong Province, 9500-9600 yuan/ton in cash

Raw material pure benzene: the price of domestic pure benzene market rose and fell, and spot transactions were active. However, the demander has obvious resistance to the high price, and the styrene market has declined, and the high price of East China pure benzene market has fallen back.

Downstream caprolactam: caprolactam is coiled and operated. At present, the spot price of caprolactam in China is firm, but the downstream PA6 chip market sales are weak, and some prices have declined. The atmosphere of raw material procurement in polymerization plants is cautious, and the high price caprolactam lacks follow-up.

Pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, the cost support was stable, the pressure of cyclohexanone plant remained unchanged, and the supply and demand of cyclohexanone were weak. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expected that the short-term cyclohexanone market would be mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3133 yuan/ton on September 9, and the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3133 yuan/ton on September 15. The market price of monoammonium phosphate was stable this week.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate on September 9 was 4300 yuan/ton, and on September 15, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4016 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell 6.59% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market quotation of monoammonium phosphate was firm, and the center of gravity of diammonium phosphate continued to decline. The raw material market is stable and good, and the cost is good. The fertilizer market started in autumn, and the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises mainly purchase on demand. There is a large supply of ammonium phosphate on the site. Although the purchasing enthusiasm of monoammonium downstream has improved, the turnover is relatively small. Downstream demand for diammonium was insufficient, and the price was lowered one after another for the purpose of digesting inventory. The market was weak. As of September 15, 55% of the factory price of powdered monoammonium in Hubei was 2750-2900 yuan/ton, that in Sichuan was 2900-3400 yuan/ton, and that in 73% of the monoammonium market was 6100 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3500-3700 yuan/ton, the quotation of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 4200 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou is 4150 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur in East China rose this week, with an average price of 1143.33 yuan/ton on September 15. The sulfur quotation of refinery enterprises in Shandong is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 1130-1220 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1030-1170 yuan/ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual transaction price shall prevail. The port market continues to rise, the cargo holders have a positive attitude, and it is difficult to find low prices on the site. The downstream follows up on sulfur procurement as needed. The local refineries mainly supply sulfuric acid manufacturers around. There is no inventory pressure for the time being, and the quotation is mainly stable. At present, the domestic market is not obviously good, and the short-term sulfur market is waiting for operation.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic market for medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore continues to operate stably as a whole, the supply of phosphorus ore in the yard is still tight, and the supply side continues to provide some support to the market. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand. As of September 15, the reference price of phosphate rock was 1064 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts from the business community believe that the recent raw material market has stabilized and cost support has increased. With the gradual release of fertilizer market in autumn, the demand for ammonium phosphate has increased, and the trading atmosphere has improved. It is expected that the market price of ammonium phosphate will be stable in the short term.

Trend Chart of Average Acetone Price in National Mainstream Market

Under the influence of the expected typhoon in East China, some related products rose well, especially phenol, which was hard to find. The East China market of acetone also took the lead in pushing up. In the morning, the holders of the East China acetone market pushed up 100 yuan/ton. Although the trading was limited, the atmosphere of the on-site negotiation was still good. In other regions, due to the influence of East China, acetone also rose in a narrow range. On the whole, the closing in the morning was very few, which was less than expected. It is expected that the market offer will be firm in the afternoon.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China is as follows:

Region, quotation, weekly rise and fall

East China., 5250., 100

Shandong Province., 5450., 50

Yanshan Prefecture., 5500., 50

South China., 5400., 0

Recent trend of urea price

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week. The urea price rose from 2400.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2525.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 5.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.00%. On September 12, the urea commodity index was 117.44, which was the same as yesterday, down 22.90% from 152.33 points (May 15, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 111.22% from 55.60 points, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Increased cost support, better downstream demand and increased urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of domestic urea rose slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2680 yuan/ton this weekend, up 80 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2490 yuan / ton this weekend, up 130 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2495 yuan/ton this weekend, up 135 yuan/ton compared with last weekend;

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea has increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas has decreased slightly, from 5994.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5930.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.07%, a year-on-year increase of 2.42%; The price of anthracite rose slightly. By the end of September 13, the price of anthracite had risen by 180-250 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of September. Upstream raw materials had risen significantly, providing sufficient support for urea prices. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly, from 7933.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 8266.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 4.20%.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is gradually expanding. Rubber sheet factory enterprises start at a low level, and just need to purchase; The shipment of compound fertilizer plant is good, and it has been started to improve. The price of melamine rose slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. From the perspective of supply: environmental protection and production restriction in Shanxi Province, plant maintenance in northwest China, and urea production reduction are expected. Internationally: on September 9, the printed label landed, and a total of 2.251 million tons were received. The lowest price of the west coast is 668.15 US dollars / ton CFR, and the lowest price of the east coast is 675.25 US dollars / ton CFR.

Urea price or small increase

In mid September, the domestic urea market may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business club believe that the prices of anthracite and liquefied natural gas in the upstream of urea have increased slightly, and the cost of urea has increased. The downstream agricultural demand is general, while the industrial demand increases. The daily output of urea is expected to decline, which is stimulated by the stamp. The recent urea or narrow range shock rise is the main one.