In May 2026, the domestic nitrile rubber market continued to decline at a high level. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 21, the price was at 20200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.11% from 22225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The cost side market has fallen from a high level, weakening support for nitrile rubber. As of May 21st, the price of butadiene was 12700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.79% from 13200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 21st, the price of acrylonitrile was 10283 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37% from 10533 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
The tight supply situation has eased to some extent. Since May, the operating rate of domestic nitrile rubber plants has remained at 70% -75%, with early maintenance units gradually resuming production and spot supply gradually easing; The easing of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to a slight increase in the volume of imported rubber from Japan and South Korea compared to the previous period. Port inventories have slowly accumulated, easing the tight domestic spot market situation; The manufacturer’s inventory is low, and the trader’s inventory has slightly increased. The overall inventory pressure is controllable, and there is no obvious risk of inventory accumulation.
The weak demand has a bearish impact on nitrile rubber. Although the increase in penetration rate of new energy vehicles has driven certain demand in downstream industries such as seals and rubber hoses, the demand for traditional fuel vehicles is sluggish, and the overall recovery is slow. Large transactions of nitrile rubber are rare. On the one hand, the engineering and industrial products industry has weak domestic demand, and on the other hand, exports are under pressure due to India’s anti-dumping policies, resulting in limited demand growth. Overall, in May, the downstream demand for nitrile rubber was mainly small orders, and high price acceptance was weak.
As of May 20th, the nitrile rubber spread index showed a trend from strong to weak since mid April, and continued to weaken after falling below the 0 axis. Although it briefly recovered in early May, it turned downwards again in mid May, and the current negative direction has expanded, restarting the downward trend. Combining supply and demand with cost, raw material support has weakened, demand recovery is weak, and the market is in a weakly balanced pattern. Short term prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise, with the center of gravity shifting downwards in the medium term and operating under pressure throughout the year.
From the fundamental perspective of the industrial chain, the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile are fluctuating at a high level with a narrow range, and cost support is still present; But downstream demand is weak, with rigid procurement as the main focus, increasing pressure on manufacturers to ship, and prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise.
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