Cost driven cyclohexanone market trend tends to be strong

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from January 29th to February 2nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market increased from 9518 yuan/ton to 9675 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.64% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 1.57%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.78%. The domestic cyclohexanone market is on the rise, and the raw material pure benzene market is operating strongly. The cost pressure is constantly increasing, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone market is not high. Downstream solvents are gradually on vacation, and chemical fibers are purchased on demand. Due to cost pressure, the market low price is continuously decreasing.


On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has significantly increased, the increase in pure benzene production is limited, and downstream factories have low inventory. They actively picked up goods from ports before the year. As of February 2nd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 7967.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.


On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 66.13%, which is+0.33% higher than last week. The weekly production is 101600 tons, which is+01300 tons compared to last week. The supply of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.


On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market has remained strong and organized, with upstream pure benzene prices continuing to rise recently and strong cost support. Although the caprolactam plant has restarted and resumed supply, the overall inventory of the enterprise is low, and the selling price is mainly firm. The downstream PA6 polymerization factory is operating steadily and replenishing as needed. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.


In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene is operating at a high level, with good cost support. The spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are weak, and the cyclohexanone analyst from Business Society predicts that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly experience a slight consolidation in the short term.