According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market has stabilized at a low level. From May 22nd to 26th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market increased from 2190 yuan/ton to 2194 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 0.15%, with a maximum amplitude of 2.51%, a month on month decrease of 15.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 21.67%.
The domestic methanol market continued to be weak, the futures price fell below the 200 yuan/ton mark, the raw coal market continued to be depressed, and the market sentiment became increasingly lack of confidence. The downstream demand has been weak for a long time, the social inventory in the methanol market has been accumulating, and the source of import goods has also been pouring in. The spot market price of methanol has fallen again and again. Towards the weekend, there was a wave of bargain hunting, and the market rebounded in a narrow range.
As of the close on May 26th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated upwards. The MA2309 contract opened at 1988 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2055 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 1953 yuan/ton. It closed at 2049 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. As of the closing date, the position of the MA2309 contract was 2021800 hands, an increase of 121800 hands compared to the previous trading day.
On the cost side, there is a clear contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The price of raw coal is mainly weak. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.
On the demand side, the demand for methanol is mixed.
On the supply side, Inner Mongolia Dongri’s 200000 ton/year device has been put into operation. Inner Mongolia and Baitai, Xinjiang Xinye, Northwest Energy, Jiangsu Sopu, Pucheng Clean Energy, and a set of equipment maintenance in Shanxi. Shandong Mingshui, Xianyang Petroleum, Shenhua Ningmei, Inner Mongolia Dongneng, Jinmei Huayu, and a set of equipment maintenance in Inner Mongolia. The overall recovery exceeds the loss, so the capacity utilization rate has increased this week. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 25th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $325.00- $327.00 per ton, a decrease of $3 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 80.00-83.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 2700.00-272.00 euros/ton.
According to future forecasts, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs continue to be weak. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to be weak.
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