This week, the lead market (5.12-5.19) fell first and then rose. The average price in the domestic market was 15155 yuan/ton over the weekend, and 15230 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 0.49%.
The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated weakly after the holiday.
In terms of the futures market, Shanghai lead fell first and then rose this week. Since Wednesday, prices have been rising for three consecutive days. On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai lead 2306 rose by 125 yuan/ton per day. However, in the case of continuous price increases in the spot market, the overall market atmosphere is wait-and-see, and actual trading is slightly cold. The trend of the spot market closely follows the trend of futures, with long-term market cooperation as the main focus and limited individual trading. There has been little change in supply and demand. In terms of supply, maintenance companies have recently resumed production, with sufficient supply compared to the previous period, and social inventory has also increased to a certain extent. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in April 2023, China’s lead production reached 614000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a month on month decrease of 19.53%. Mainly affected by the maintenance of major production areas such as Henan and Yunnan in March, the total production has significantly decreased. Overall, there has been a slight increase in market supply after the holiday, while demand remains weak. In the future, the business community predicts that the trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season.
On May 19, 2023, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory remained unchanged at 33925 tons
On May 20th, the base metal index stood at 1170 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.24% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to January 2011)