1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by business agency, the spot market price of PVC SG5 fell in July. The average price of domestic PVC was 7348.75 yuan / ton on July 1 and 6775.71 yuan / ton on July 30, with the price falling by 7.8% in the month.
2、 Market analysis
In July, the market price of PVC carbide SG5 first fell and then rose, with the overall price mainly falling. The spot price of PVC continued to fall in the first and middle of this month. Since late last decade, the futures market price has rebounded, and the atmosphere of the spot market has also improved, and the price has continued to rise. At present, PVC spot market confidence is good. Traders’ enthusiasm for taking goods is acceptable, and downstream manufacturers purchase on demand. As of the 30th, the quotation range of domestic PVC 5 electric stone is mostly around 6550-7000 yuan / ton.
In terms of international crude oil, international crude oil futures rose and fell on July 28. U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was $96.42 / barrel, down $0.84 or 0.86%; Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was $101.83 / barrel, up $0.16 or 0.16%. Under the background of the global central bank raising interest rates, the expectation of economic recession may drag down the expected game between energy demand and supply tightening, and the oil price is deadlocked.
In terms of calcium carbide, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose first and then fell this month. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3800.00 yuan / ton on July 1 to 3850.00 yuan / ton on July 6, up 1.32%, and then fell to 3816.67 yuan / ton on July 28, down 0.87%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 25.65% year-on-year. In the middle and early August, the calcium carbide market may decline slightly, mainly consolidation. The price of upstream raw material blue carbon has been adjusted at a low level recently, and calcium carbide cost support is insufficient. The downstream 1,4 butanediol and PVC market fell sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. In the aftermarket, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early August, mainly finishing.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
PVC analysts of business club believe that the current rebound in PVC futures prices is good for the spot market, and the transaction is improving. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is improving, and the inventory is declining slightly. It is expected that the PVC market will be stable and positive in the short term.