1、 Price data
According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major local refiners in China in May was 5172.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4812.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 359.75 yuan / ton during the month and a monthly decrease of 6.96%.
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On May 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 374.31, down 6.43 points from yesterday, down 8.41% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (May 11, 2022), and up 459.59% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: in May, the price of locally refined petroleum coke fluctuated and rose, and the market trading was general. In late May, the imported coke was concentrated in Hong Kong, and the petroleum coke market supply increased. The refinery actively reduced the price and shipped the coke actively.
Upstream: in May, international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.
Downstream: the price of calcined coke fell as a whole in May; Metal silicon market fell; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated. As of May 31, the price was 20760.00 yuan / ton. Downstream carbon enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood and mainly purchase on demand.
3、 Aftermarket forecast
The petroleum coke analyst of business agency predicted that: the international crude oil price is high, and the price cost of petroleum coke for local refining is supported; However, recently, the inventory of imported coke has increased, the supply of petroleum coke in the market has increased, the refinery has actively shipped, and the downstream carbon enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly on demand. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may continue to decline in the near future.
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