Plasticizer prices fell sharply in September

DOP prices fell sharply in September

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell sharply in September, and DOP prices fell against the trend. As of September 29, the DOP price was 12475.00 yuan / ton, down 15.35% from 14737.50 yuan / ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. DOP prices continued to fall in September, and the DOP market went green to the end.

DOP industry chain Market

According to the price monitoring of business club, the raw materials of DOP industrial chain, phthalic anhydride and isooctanol, performed differently in September, and the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 7.93%; The price of isooctanol plummeted, down 30.9%. The proportion of comprehensive costs and the range of price changes, DOP prices fell sharply in September, down 15.35%. Overall, the market of DOP industrial chain fell sharply in September, and the market of DOP in September was obviously bad.

DOP price “cliff high” in 2021

According to the monitoring data of business society, the DOP commodity index on September 28 was 90.91, down 3.79 points from yesterday, down 19.87% from the highest point 113.46 in the cycle (2021-08-04), and up 121.03% from the lowest point 41.13 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). It can also be seen from the annual price comparison chart that the DOP price in 2021 is significantly higher than that in previous years. In most of the time, the DOP price in 21 years is twice the price in the same period in 19 and 20 years, resulting in a “cliff like” high price. In the absence of significant benefits on the demand side, the high level of DOP is more “castles in the air” and no customers pay. In the case of falling raw material prices, DOP lost the only support of high prices. The sharp drop in DOP prices in September is the specific manifestation of the “castle in the air” market.

In September, many DOP enterprises stopped production or limited production due to the double control and limitation of energy consumption. By the end of September, the overall operating rate of the plasticizer industry was about 40%, the lowest operating rate in the year. The start-up is low and the market supply is reduced, but the production of Qilu plasticizer equipment is normal, and the plasticizer inventory has a certain support for the market, and there are many DOP substitutes, so there is no shortage in the market. Moreover, the decline of DOP production reduced the demand for raw material isooctanol, increased the decline of isooctanol to a certain extent, and the decline of raw material price further stimulated the decline of DOP price.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that under the environment of dual control of energy consumption, the plasticizer market fell against the market in September, mainly due to the sharp decline in the price of raw material isooctanol, the historically high DOP lost its only support, the “castle in the air” collapsed and the DOP price fell sharply. In the future, due to the impact of energy consumption double control limit film, the operating rate of plasticizer in September was the lowest in the year. In October, the operation of DOP industry resumed one after another, the supply of DOP increased, and the decline of DOP in the future is expected to continue. However, with the increase of DOP operation, the demand for isooctanol increased, which stimulated the price of isooctanol to stop falling and rebound. DOP may resume rising due to the rise of raw material prices, but the virtual high price of DOP in 21 years is obvious, There is limited room for DOP to rise again. DOP prices are expected to stabilize after falling in October.