The price of maleic anhydride rebounded after falling in August

1、 Price trend

Business agency: the price of maleic anhydride rebounded after falling in August

According to the data of business agency, as of August 31, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 11766.67 yuan / ton (including tax), an increase of 2.32% compared with 11500.00 yuan / ton on August 1.

On August 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 110.85, down 0.31 points from yesterday, down 10.37% from the highest point 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 116.59% from the lowest point 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In August, the market price of maleic anhydride rebounded after falling, and the international crude oil rebounded at the end of the month, resulting in an increase in the domestic chemical price, an increase in the operating rate of downstream unsaturated resin, mainly weak consolidation in the resin market and just needed procurement. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11600 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 11500 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 12000 yuan / ton.

The recent sharp rebound in crude oil has basically recovered the previous decline. On the one hand, the weakening of the US dollar exchange rate supports the strength of crude oil. On the other hand, market participants believe that the US government had previously urged OPEC to increase production to curb oil prices, and the market sold oil prices too short. Under the current situation of relatively stable supply and demand fundamentals, China’s epidemic peak passed, and the economic acceleration brought demand growth. Superimposed on the decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, oil prices rose in a revised manner.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the hydrobenzene market fluctuated downward in August. The ex factory price in North China was 8137.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7520 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 7.59%. In August, Sinopec’s listing price of pure benzene was lowered three times, with a cumulative reduction of 600 yuan / ton. At present, it is 7550 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7500 yuan / ton. In August, the start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises declined, and the start-up in northern China was slightly lower. The start-up and shutdown cost of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was lower than that of pure benzene, and most manufacturers arranged their production according to their profits. In terms of n-butane, Shandong price is 5300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that: at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market supply is limited, some factories are pre sold to late September, and the downstream resin market just needs to be purchased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.