According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market in June fluctuated, and the spot prices of various brands fluctuated. As of July 1, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8600.00 yuan / ton, up 0.98% from the average price level in early June and 10.02% from the same period last year.
Cause analysis
PP upstream propylene domestic (Shandong) market entered June to stop falling and pull up, followed by shock operation. During the first ten days of the year, propylene prices in the United States and Asia remained stable, with no significant impact on the propylene market. Some of them restart the production line and start to quote for shipment. But the propylene market inventory position is not high, and the international crude oil market price rise is objective, which is good for the propylene cost side. In the second half of the month, propylene upstream products showed moderate performance, with no significant rise or fall. The lower reaches showed signs of warming up, and the rising products increased. With stable supply and demand in the market and better downstream demand, the propylene market is expected to rise in the near future.
Upstream propylene market stopped falling in June, PP cost side support is acceptable. At present, the average operating rate of the industry has picked up compared with that in May. Due to the influence of the traditional off-season demand, the demand in the first half of the month is lower, and the consumption of terminal enterprises is low. Power rationing in some areas affects production, but the overall supply situation is relatively stable. In the second half of the month, the high international oil price supported the products related to the chemical industry chain, coupled with the low inventory of petrochemical plants, which were good for offsetting the bad effects such as weak demand. The price of polypropylene wire drawing products was strengthened. However, the transaction resistance of high price goods is still large, and the export market is under pressure, which hinders the rise of PP to a certain extent. At the same time, in the second half of the year, the new production line involves more production capacity, and the effect of capacity expansion may gradually appear in the medium and long term, aggravating the contradiction between domestic supply and demand. However, in the short term, the market is generally stable, or will continue to run with strong shocks.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of July 1, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with a price of about 8716.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.58% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 11.04% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the month, the consumption of fiber PP was also weak, the profit situation of direct downstream non-woven enterprises was poor, the purchasing was passive and just need operation, and the consumption of diaper products was also at the off-season level. In the second half of the month, the proportion of fiber PP production was stable at about 9%. The market of spunbonded non-woven fabric and Spunlaced non-woven fabric industry gradually returned to stable, and the price gradually stopped falling and warmed up.
Meltblown materials, meltblown PP market in June fell larger, spot prices fell below the 10000 yuan mark. As of July 1, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 9733.33 yuan / ton. The saturation of domestic melt blown fabric manufacturing market is high. Recently, the situation of melt blown PP production enterprises leaving the market is more prominent. At present, there are few devices still in shipment. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the situation of saturated demand for medical protective equipment is relatively stable. In terms of overseas epidemic situation, the epidemic situation in some neighboring countries in Asia Pacific region of China is deep and long-term, forming a certain epidemic prevention pressure on neighboring countries and regions. During this period, the demand of overseas epidemic prevention market for oxygen generator and other equipment related products increased, and the pulling effect on melt blown PP industry was not obvious. The demand for meltblown materials is difficult to expand, and it is expected that the price will continue to be weak.
Future forecast
Business community PP analysts believe: June domestic polypropylene market overall shock operation. In the first half of the month, the consumption was low due to the influence of the industry’s traditional off-season demand. The end users have strong resistance to the high price of goods, the goods preparation is rigid, and they need to operate carefully, and the actual trading volume is small. With the strength of upstream crude oil and the stop of propylene, the price level of polypropylene gradually recovered. It is expected that PP price will be narrow and strong in the short term.
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