Recently, the price of domestic refined oil has risen strongly, and the price of the oil in mid April has increased by a large margin. According to the data of business society, the price of 92 gas of No.21 is 7414.8 yuan / ton, and the price of the oil in mid April is up 6.47%; 0 × diesel oil price is 5800 yuan / ton, and the price of diesel oil rises 4.17% in mid April. The international crude oil price has boosted. In addition, the in-situ equipment maintenance increases, supply is tight, and the price of finished oil has risen strongly.
International oil: Yemen Husser armed forces claimed to attack Saudi oil refining facilities, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was tense again; The International Energy Agency (IEA) took the lead and published monthly report, adding a fire to the oil market. On the 14th, IEA raised its global oil demand forecast in 2021. The view is that there are signs that the global economic recovery is faster than previously expected, especially strong demand in the United States and China; The EIA released the U; In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also raised global oil demand expectations, and it is expected that oil demand will increase by 5.95 million barrels / day in 2021, up 70000 barrels / day from last month. The increase in demand has provided support for OPEC’s increase in production. Even if OPEC + gradually increases production by more than 2 million B / D in the next three months, oil inventories are expected to decline. International crude oil was supported by various favorable factors. Crude oil rose significantly in mid April. As of 20, the settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $62.67/barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures market was $66.57/barrel.
Good supply and demand of refined oil: since April, after the maintenance of the atmospheric and vacuum unit in Kolida, the first unit overhaul of HSBC Petrochemical has not started, and the main refinery is the shutdown and maintenance of the whole plant of Dagang Petrochemical. The refinery operating rate has declined, and the supply side is in a tight trend. In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic temperature is suitable, and the radius of people’s travel has increased. In addition, the May 1st holiday is approaching, and there is a certain demand for stock and stock in the market. In terms of diesel oil, the demand for diesel oil in engineering infrastructure, logistics and transportation industries continued to pick up, and the demand for diesel oil terminals was strongly supported. Positive demand superimposed, domestic oil prices rose.
By the middle of April, the average starting load of atmospheric and vacuum unit of domestic main refineries is about 75%. The resumption of main refineries and maintenance refineries coexist in April-May, and the supply side may not change much.
Chenling, an analyst with refined oil at the business agency, believes that the closing price of international crude oil has not changed much. At present, the domestic crude oil change rate is at a positive low level, the demand for steam and diesel oil continues to be good, and there is a certain support in the market fundamentals. It is expected that the price of finished oil will still rise slightly in the later period.
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