1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of steam coal fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 754 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 747.5 yuan / ton, down 0.86%, up 45.15% year on year. On April 8, the steam coal commodity index was 90.51, down 0.27 points from yesterday, down 27.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19), and up 102.48% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In terms of origin, the high level of coal at the head of the steam coal pit has decreased. Because of the hot sales in the mining area in the early stage, now the acceptance of the downstream is general, and the coal price has begun to callback slightly. And Yulin coal mine began to resume production, the overall supply is more sufficient than the previous period. In addition, in April, Mengxi began to release xinyuedu coal pipe ticket, and the overall supply may be improved.
In terms of downstream power plants: with the rise of temperature, civil power has basically ended, and the daily coal consumption of the port has dropped in recent days. As of April 6, the six major coastal power plants had a total inventory of 14.505 million tons, daily consumption of 653000 tons, and available days of 22.2 days. And the downstream began to resist the high price of coal, the desire to chase high is not strong. In addition, industrial power consumption has been on the right track, and the follow-up power consumption increment is not large.
Macro: according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the national coal prices rose slightly last week (March 29 to April 4), among which the prices of steam coal, coking coal and No.2 anthracite lump coal were 613 yuan, 776 yuan and 940 yuan per ton, up 1%, 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.
Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the daily consumption of port is on the decline, industrial power consumption has entered normal, power demand is difficult to increase, and civil power is basically over. Moreover, in terms of producing area, the supply of steam coal is sufficient. On the whole, the price of steam coal may maintain a weak market, and the specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |