1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 by the electricity and stone method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on March 11 was 8612.5 yuan / ton, up 0.44% from the beginning of the week, 17.18% on month, and 37.8% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
Since February, the PVC market entered the consolidation period, with prices slightly callback, while this week the PVC market opened the upward channel again, and the price rose slightly. This week’s price rise is mainly due to the rising futures, driving the spot price trend, and the price has risen greatly due to the recent tense supply of raw materials calcium carbide. In March, it has increased by more than 14%. The cost side support is strong, supporting the PVC upward, and the quotation of PVC enterprises rose at 50-200 yuan / T, and then the price of the period was adjusted narrowly. At present, the price of PVC futures fluctuates at high level, and the spot market has slightly recovered after rising, but the willingness to fall deeply is not strong. Downstream demand is cautious to purchase, and the enthusiasm for high price PVC procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere is general, but it is just needed. Meanwhile, international supply is still tight, and the export performance is good. Although PVC has a small accumulation, it is lower than the same period last year. Overall, PVC has no obvious profit margin system About, the short-term price callback is also a post-rising consolidation stage, supported by the cost end, PVC trend is strong.
In spot, the main quotation range of pvc5 type electric stone is mainly around 8400-8700 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 electric stone in East China is 8550-8700 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 type electric stone in North China is 8500-8650 yuan / ton, and the pvc5 type electric stone in South China is RMB 8600-8800 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 type electric stone in Shandong Province is 8600-8700 yuan / ton, the price of PVC electric stone in Hebei is 8550-8700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of pvc5 type electric stone in Inner Mongolia is 8250-8400 yuan / ton, The market quotation of each place rose and then returned, and fluctuated in a narrow range.
In futures, futures are in high volatility, falling high, driving the spot trend. V2105 opened at 8530, with the highest price of 8755, the lowest price of 8440, and the closing price of 8705 up 250, or 2.96%. The volume of traffic was 517000, an increase of 41944. The holding volume was 333000, an increase of 34511.
Regional variety process March 11
Changzhou PVC carbide method 8550-8650 yuan / ton
Guangzhou PVC carbide method: 8480-8650 yuan / ton
Hebei PVC carbide method 8550-8700 yuan / ton
Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8540-8650 yuan / ton
Upstream crude oil, March 10, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price rose, the main contract settlement price at $64.44 / barrel, up $0.43. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contract at $67.90/barrel, or 0.38 US dollars. Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday as optimism for a global recovery rose and US gasoline stocks fell sharply, but oil production surges after extreme weather Limited oil prices.
Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of business society, the recent price of ethylene external market has risen, with the price of USD 1104.75/t on March 1, the average price of ethylene on March 1 being 1196.25 USD / T, up 8.28%, and the current price rose 23.04% on a month-on-year basis, and the current price rose 64.94% year on year. At present, crude oil: the gasoline inventory in the United States has declined sharply, the global economic recovery is relatively optimistic, and the cost side is favorable for ethylene market. Therefore, data analysts of business agency expect that the external price of ethylene will be mainly higher in the next step.
The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was stable on March 11. On March 11, the reference price of carbide was 4066.67. Compared with March 1 (3566.67), the price of raw materials, LAN carbon, which was 14.02%, was higher and consolidated. The cost of calcium carbide was well supported, the supply was tight and the price rose greatly.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business agency believe that the current price of PVC futures fluctuates at high level, and the spot market will slightly recover after rising. Downstream demand is carefully purchased. The acceptance of high price PVC is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere is general, but it is just needed. Meanwhile, the export performance is good, and the manufacturer is not under pressure for shipment. In the short term, it is expected that the PVC price is relatively volatile, and the PVC market will be in the future market under the strong support of the cost end Still available.
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