Price trend:
All kinds of resistance in 2020 did not stop the rapid development of domestic rubber and plastic industry. According to the big data list of business agency, most of the plastic products developed well this year. Among many brother products, this year’s PA6 is not so obvious. As of December 23, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises of business cooperatives to Zhongyou 2.75-2.85 was about 13100 yuan / ton, which was 3.42% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the year. It was hard to return to the price level at the beginning of the year.
Factor analysis:
In fact, at the beginning of 2020, the domestic spot price of PA6 is on a good start, and caprolactam bottoms out and recovers after a big drop in upstream. In addition, due to the lack of supply of products affected by the weather in the north, the price rise of caprolactam brand boosted the confidence in the market and started the rising mode. The rise of raw materials led PA6 manufacturers to generally increase their quotations. The market was preparing goods before the festival, and the demand for PA6 also increased to a certain extent. Due to the impact of the epidemic, with the advent of the extended version of the Spring Festival, PA6 production and sales nearly stagnated. In February, the resumption of relevant work was slow, the inventory of slicing enterprises could not be digested, and logistics transportation encountered resistance. Multiple factors affected market confidence, and the center of quotation fell rapidly, with a decline of 21.51% from the end of February to the beginning of April. Businessmen are pessimistic and slow in trading.
After three months of decline, the market began to pick up in early May. The main advantage of the market is still from the cost side, caprolactam supply into tight, prices rose sharply, the whole month in May rose as high as 16.21%. With the easing of the epidemic situation, the crude oil chemical market rebounded, and the pure benzene market was pushed up by the favorable crude oil and external market. The mentality improvement of downstream buyers of PA6 is limited. Under the support of strong cost, some polymerization plants and businesses still have low-cost single operation, and the spot price may still be paying for the expansion of PA6 production in 2019.
The continuous lack of demand led to the gradual increase of PA6 inventory. In July, domestic PA6 inventory was running at a high level, and there was a risk of continuous accumulation. At the same time, the raw material market fell. Although crude oil had strong support for pure benzene in the early stage and caprolactam was supported at the bottom of the market, the supply was sufficient, and the demand of polymerization plant decreased, and the overall market was weak. Affected by multiple negative effects of PA6 spot price continued to “drift green”, businesses actively shipping, so that the margin offer reduced positions. Business bearish after the market, the market mentality even affected the traditional peak season.
Delayed peak season
In September, the trend of PA6 market continued to be weak. In terms of textile, the transaction of high-speed spinning chips was particularly slow, and the situation that downstream factories were still stocked up was common in conventional spinning. Shipping resistance as always, only the overall operating rate of nylon filament increased, good PA6 price. With the consumption of inventory, PA6 spot price guidance began to appear in October. The purchase and sales of home appliance enterprises and automobile enterprises increased significantly, and the operating rate of nylon textile enterprises continued to be high. After a year’s silence, the demand side finally made efforts, and the inventory fell rapidly, and the spot price was boosted. With the recovery growth of the domestic market, the price of PA6 has risen as high as 25.56%. It’s like a late and extended season. At the same time, the supply of caprolactam was tight at the end of the year, and the upstream and downstream were in good together, and the spot price of PA6 returned to the level at the beginning of the year.
Year end comments:
Business agency analysts believe: in 2020, domestic PA6 market will fall more and rise less, but the price will recover. The lack of long-term demand in the domestic market leads to the lack of power for PA6 to rise. Throughout the year, the mismatch between last year’s capacity increase and demand growth still has a far-reaching impact on this year. Most of the positive guidance comes from the petrochemical industry chain and from the direct upstream caprolactam. Although the fourth quarter demand side volume, but the current market is difficult to say balanced and healthy. Perhaps it will take time for PA6 industry chain to adjust its allocation.
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