Price trend:
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According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic ABS market continued to run strongly in November, and the spot price fluctuated and rose. As of December 1, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 19250.00 yuan / ton, which was 10.00% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.
Factor analysis:
ABS upstream Styrene Market in November, domestic Styrene Market in October, the whole month’s rise was gratifying. Affected by the strong demand, the downstream enterprises shortened the shutdown period and scope during the national day, and the operating rate remained above 80%. The inventory of styrene production enterprises did not increase but decreased. The market mentality is strong, at the same time the downstream price goes up, pushing up styrene in reverse. Peripheral news negative chemical industry chain, drag styrene up market. By the end of November, the mainstream price of styrene declined. On the 16th, the price of sample enterprises of business cooperatives was 9266.67 yuan / ton, and on the 24th, the price of sample enterprises was 8450.00 yuan / ton. Crude oil fluctuated widely in November and the overall price rose. The price of pure benzene rose first and then fell, following the trend of styrene. It is expected that styrene will run in shock in the near future.
In terms of acrylonitrile upstream of ABS, raw material propylene weakened in October and rose sharply in November, followed by an increase in acrylonitrile market. On the whole, the crude oil in the upstream of the far end increased, which was beneficial to acrylonitrile. At the beginning of the month, the operating rate of downstream acrylic fiber and other industries remained high, and after the rise of acrylonitrile, it began to bear pressure and reduce negative pressure. At present, the inventory of manufacturers is still controllable, and business offers are generally adjusted up, with part of the hype atmosphere. Downstream demand is general, mainly against high price goods. The future demand may decrease, which will form resistance to the price rise of acrylonitrile. But at present, acrylonitrile can still maintain a strong position, and the price is expected to be high in the short term.
In November, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise due to the influence of external market, and the rising trend slowed down. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price rose to 9938 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 8.03% within the month, and a 12.50% increase year-on-year. The butadiene market rose significantly and lasted for a long time, mainly driven by the external market. Combined with the influence of maintenance of some foreign units, the domestic butadiene market price continued to rise. However, the demand for downstream rubber market is weak. Although the main butadiene manufacturers have raised the ex factory quotation for many times, the actual transaction is limited. Business agency butadiene analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market high finishing.
In November, the domestic ABS market was active, and the price fluctuated and rose. The prices of the three upstream materials are up and down, and the overall cost support is temporarily stable. In terms of supply, domestic ABS supply is still tight, and the arrival volume in East China at the beginning of the month is relatively large, and the growth trend is slowing down. However, the terminal demand is still strong, and the consumption of major domestic appliance enterprises and automobile industry remains stable, and the market demand has a certain foundation. With the increasing cost pressure of downstream factories, the purchasing operation gradually has a certain resistance to the high price goods, and starts to maintain the just needed goods. At the end of last ten days, I heard that some household electrical appliances factories had taken the initiative to reduce production, and the resistance of downstream to high price goods increased.
Future forecast:
Business agency analysts believe: ABS market rose in November, the price of each brand rose better. The cost side of the upstream three material ups and downs on the ABS cost side of the support is OK. At present, the spot supply of ABS is still tight, but the rise in the early stage is large, and the downstream demand is gradually showing a weak state. At present, the downstream factories are more resistant to high price goods, and there are low price orders in the actual transaction. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted in the near future.
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