1、 Price trend
According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, aniline remained in a range of fluctuation. On July 1, aniline price in Shandong was 4300-4390 yuan / ton, and in Nanjing was 4500 yuan / ton; on July 31, aniline price in Shandong was 4200-4330 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 4200 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.53% this month.
| PVA 2088 (PVA BP20) |
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fluctuated in the first ten days and the middle of July, and the price rose sharply in the last ten days. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene at the beginning of this month, and increased the listing price three times in the last ten days, with a total increase of 50 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton this month. At the beginning of the month, the weak market continued in June, the downstream demand was insufficient to follow up, and the port inventory remained high; coupled with the unknown public health events, the spot transaction in the market was light, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. In the last ten days, the external price rebounded obviously, and the enterprises made up the short at the end of the month, and the pressure of delivery was released rapidly, and the price rose sharply. On July 1, the listed price of pure benzene was 2950-3400 yuan / ton (average price was 3160 yuan / ton), and on July 31, it was 3230-3400 yuan / ton (average price was 3370 yuan / ton), which was 210 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, with an increase of 6.65% this month.
From June 10 to 1450 yuan / ton, the price of nitric acid continued to stabilize, and rose to 1533.33 yuan / ton on July 22. Nitric acid rose by 5.75% in July.
In the early stage of this month, due to inventory pressure, the price of aniline was lowered to promote shipment; at the end of the month, Dongying Huatai stopped for maintenance, and the market supply decreased, which brought about a positive effect and the price increased.
| PVA |
3、 Future forecast
In terms of raw materials, port inventory continues to be at a high level, but the current external disk is at a high level, and subsequent arrivals are expected to decrease, reducing inventory pressure and supporting the market mentality. In addition, the operating rate of downstream units may increase in the later period and some new capacity will be put into operation. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to rise in August.
The cost side is expected to continue to pick up, and the price of aniline will have a favorable support in the later stage. Pay attention to public health events abroad and the downstream operating load. The price of aniline is expected to rise in August, but the range is not large.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |