The contradiction between supply and demand eased and PA66 market recovered

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, PA66 market recovered in the second week of June, with the prices of various brands rising. As of June 12, the average price of the mainstream offer of PA66 is about 18900.00 yuan / ton, which is 0.53% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

PVA

Analysis of influencing factors:

 

Recently, the price trend of adipic acid in the upper reaches of PA66 continued the weak trend of last month, with weak price fluctuation and lack of market direction. At present, the domestic spot price of adipic acid is adjusted and operated in a narrow range. According to the data of the business agency, as of June 12, the main quotation of adipic acid in East China was about 6720 yuan / ton on average, with the increase and decrease of dealers’ quotation showing each other, and the average price amplitude since the beginning of the month is 0.90%. In terms of upstream cost, the favorable crude oil market still lags behind the conduction of adipic acid. In terms of direct raw material pure benzene, affected by the crude oil market, the market is relatively positive, the reaction of adipic acid is slow and the follow-up is not good, coupled with the sharp drop of pure benzene in the early stage by more than 50%, resulting in the actual performance of adipic acid lagging behind. In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of enterprises in the near future has remained around 80%. The supply of goods is sufficient, and the inventory pressure is still the same. The downstream orders are not timely and the actual delivery is less. The price is also at a low level, so the profit space of the merchants is not large in fact, and the delivery strength is naturally poor. Adipic acid is not expected to improve in the near future.

 

The upstream adipic acid did not support the PA66 cost side, and the market price of PA66 recovered this week after a long weak trend. According to the data of the business agency, PA66, which has been floating green for a long time, peaked at about 18900 yuan / ton on June 11 this week, with the weekly amplitude of 1.61% for all brands in the spot market. At present, the operation rate of domestic PA66 manufacturers is not high, and the pressure of long-term sufficient supply of PA66 spot inventory has eased. In addition, the consumption of PA66 at home and abroad has increased. At present, the shipping resistance of merchants has decreased, the downstream replenishment demand is appropriate, the market inquiry atmosphere is warmer, and the delivery and investment situation is actually warmer.

 

Future forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that: in the second week of June, the domestic PA66 market has recovered. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable at a low level, which is weak to support the PA66 cost side. The downstream factories have improved their delivery and PA66 consumption has increased. The background of the market supply-demand contradiction was slightly eased, business confidence was strengthened, and the offer was raised. It is expected that PA66 market will continue to rise in a narrow range in the short term.

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL