1、 Price trend
According to the data in the business club’s large list, pure benzene continued to decline at the beginning of the month, started the way of bottom reading rebound after the Qingming Festival, and returned to the decline in late April. On April 1, the price of pure benzene was 2550-2900 yuan / ton (average price: 2660 yuan / ton). On April 30, the price of pure benzene was 2700-3500 yuan / ton (average price: 3020 yuan / ton), 360 yuan / ton higher than that on April 1, with a monthly increase of 13.53%.
2、 Analysis and comment
1. Crude oil: this month OPEC + Member States reached a joint production reduction agreement to support the oil market. However, crude oil inventory increased rapidly, while storage capacity decreased significantly, and WTI even fell to a negative value for the first time in history this month. Compared with March 31, Brent oil price in April was up $1.995/barrel, up 11.29%; WTI oil price in April was down $2.66/barrel, down 10.85%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 47.095 USD / barrel, or 79.54%; WTI oil price decreased by 38.92 USD / barrel, or 64.04%.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
2. Product: the port inventory of pure benzene continued to accumulate this month, but the increase decreased. After this month’s Qingming Festival holiday, the pure benzene market was affected by crude oil and external market, bottom reading rebounded, and downstream purchasing was positive, with a rebound of more than 30%. The spot supply in Shandong is tight, and the price increase is more obvious. After two weeks of hoarding, the downstream procurement speed slowed down significantly. In the late ten days, crude oil plummeted and pure benzene began to decline.
3. Outside market: April crude oil market slightly recovered, driving the outside market up. South Korea’s imports of pure benzene rose 75 US dollars / ton, or 30.16%; East China’s imports of pure benzene rose 55 US dollars / ton, or 19.23%.
4. Downstream: styrene: on April 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was 4650 yuan / ton, and on April 30, the price was 5100 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 9.68%. In the early stage, stimulated by favorable crude oil and supply and demand, styrene prices rose driven by rising sentiment, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was good. In the later stage, the weak raw material surface and the restart of domestic styrene plant gradually increased, which made the situation of supply exceeding demand hard to change in a short time, and the price declined.
Aniline: on April 1, the price of aniline was 5633.33 yuan / ton, and on April 30, the price was 4800 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 14.79%. Affected by public health events, domestic market and export of aniline were blocked in April, the contradiction between supply and demand expanded, and the price fell. In the middle of the year, the raw material pure benzene rebounded sharply, and the aniline stock kept up with the rising power. The downstream factories entered the market to purchase and stock up, and the aniline enterprise stock pressure was released rapidly. In the last ten days, after more than a week’s stock up, the downstream procurement recovered to be light. In addition, the overhaul of aniline plant was restarted, and the market supply increased, so the price of aniline fell.
| PVA |
3、 Future forecast
1. Crude oil: many parties have jointly promoted the process of production reduction agreement, which has some effect, but in the short term, it can not offset the negative impact of the sharp contraction of demand, and the oil market can not get rid of the situation of excess supply and demand. Short term crude oil prices are expected to remain low.
2. Domestic and foreign markets: the production of downstream pure benzene enterprises in the short term is basically stable, the consumption is mainly in the early stage of hoarding, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. Mainly wait for the later crude oil and the trend of the outer market.
Market participants are more bearish about the future, and it is expected that the short-term pure benzene market is still weak.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |