1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of the business agency, zinc prices plummeted after the opening on February 3. On February 3, the spot price of zinc was 17683.33 yuan / ton, and the price of zinc fell by 800 yuan / ton, or 4.72%. Zinc prices plummeted, zinc market bearish obvious.
2、 Market trend analysis
|PVA 2088 (PVA BP20)|
Market of domestic zinc enterprises
During the Spring Festival and the anti epidemic period, most of the zinc smelting enterprises were in normal production or had personnel on duty, and some enterprises resumed work on February 10. However, due to the limited transportation, it is difficult for manufacturers to deliver goods; in terms of raw materials, most smelting enterprises have inventory from January to February, and the supply of raw materials is stable. Affected by the logistics and transportation, the situation of finished products piling up in the plant area often occurs. In the downstream, most of the galvanizing plants went to work on February 10. The sales situation of zinc ingots was poor, and the social inventory of zinc ingots increased a lot. In general, the supply of zinc is stable, the demand is insufficient, and the price of zinc is under great pressure.
International LME Market
It can be seen from the figure that during the Spring Festival, the price of zinc in LME market plummeted. The pessimism spread in zinc market, and zinc price plummeted all the way. Affected by the epidemic situation, the market’s demand for zinc is expected to decline, and it is bearish to the macro-economy. The market’s risk aversion psychology is prominent. Financial customers mainly short and maintain their value, and the future market is bearish.
3、 Future prospects
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business association, believes that during the Spring Festival, affected by the epidemic situation, the logistics and transportation are limited, the zinc enterprises are difficult to ship, the zinc smelter’s finished product inventory is often overstocked, the downstream customers stop production frequently, and the downstream demand drops; in terms of supply, the zinc smelter generally has inventory to maintain normal production, and there are more on duty personnel during the Spring Festival, and the zinc ingot production is basically normal, The supply of zinc ingots is sufficient, and the social stock of zinc ingots has increased significantly; the outbreak of the epidemic, the market risk aversion mentality is prominent, financial customers mainly short and maintain the value, the external quotation fell sharply during the Spring Festival, increasing the negative pressure on the domestic zinc market. Generally speaking, affected by the epidemic situation, the demand for zinc ingots has declined for a short time, the risk aversion psychology of zinc city is prominent, zinc market is short more, the supply of zinc market is normal, the stock of zinc ingots has increased, the contradiction between supply and demand of zinc market is prominent in the short term, the power of zinc price rising is insufficient, and it is expected that zinc price will rise difficultly in February, with a large downward pressure.