1、 Price trend
Price increase of regions from the beginning of January to the 31st of January
Zhejiang 2600-2700 yuan / ton 2800-2900 yuan / ton 7.69%
Jiangsu 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2650-2700 yuan / ton 10.42%
Shandong 2400-2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 12.5%
Henan 2300-2350 yuan / ton 2400-2450 yuan / ton 4.35%
Hebei 2500 yuan / ton 2700-2800 yuan / ton 10%
South China 2600-2700 yuan / ton 2700-2750 yuan / ton 3.85%
According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise in January, with an average price of 2483 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2750 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 10.74% in the whole month.
2、 Cause analysis
|PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)|
Product: due to the Early Spring Festival holiday in 2020, affected by the factors such as stock arrangement and downstream stock preparation of enterprises before the festival, the overall stock position of domestic acetic acid market continues, and there is a certain shortage of spot supply, so the price of acetic acid continues to rise, and during the Spring Festival, all acetic acid enterprises still maintain a relatively high rate of operation. Affected by the recent pneumonia epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended, and the traffic and logistics around the country are limited, and the shipment in some areas is not smooth, and the market supply may decline.
Industry chain: in the upstream, methanol market is in shock and consolidation, and the pre festival market transaction is stagnant, at present, about 2242 yuan / ton; in the downstream, acetate, vinyl acetate and PTA industries are gradually entering the off-market period, with a good degree of stock before the festival, which is good for the price support of acetic acid, but with the extension of the Spring Festival and the development of pneumonia, the end of the market will be no longer good for the support.
International: at present, the international acetic acid market is affected by the high price of raw materials methanol, and the price of acetic acid is firm, among which the price of acetic acid in North America is about 750 / ton; the price of acetic acid in Asia is about 340-395 yuan / ton; the current price of acetic acid in Europe is about 620 euros / ton.
3、 Future forecast
According to the acetate analysts of the business association, due to the extension of the Spring Festival holiday and the impact of the pneumonia epidemic, the domestic acetic acid market is still flat, the downstream market and traders have a high degree of completion of goods preparation before the festival, and it is difficult to improve the demand to a large extent in the short term. In addition, due to the Limited Logistics and transportation, it is expected to run smoothly in the short term.