According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from July 28 to August 4, 2025. On July 28th, the benchmark price of toluene was 54900 yuan/ton, and on August 4th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5580 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64%. This week, the domestic toluene market was dominated by the maintenance of Dongming Petrochemical in Shandong Province and the load reduction of Yulong Petrochemical, which affected the supply within the province. The tight supply boosted mainstream refineries to raise prices one after another. Recently, there has been a shortage of goods arriving at ports in East and South China, and due to tight supply, prices have risen overall this week.
Cost wise: As of August 1st, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at $67.33 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October contract is $69.67 per barrel. The market is concerned that OPEC may increase oil production, coupled with US employment data dragging down the demand outlook.
Supply side:
Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of August 4th, East China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5750-5800 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5600 yuan/ton.
Demand side:
On August 4th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price of 7000 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units are operating stably and sales are normal. The price has been reduced by 250 yuan/ton compared to July 28th. As of August 1st, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were $834-836/ton FOB Korea and $859-861/ton CFR China, a decrease of $13/ton from July 25th.
Market forecast: Some devices on the supply side will be put into operation in the near future, while others will undergo maintenance, with little change in the supply side. From the demand side, the overall demand for downstream oil blending and chemical industries is weak, and the demand side is more rigid. Overall, the supply and demand performance is stable but slightly bearish, and it is expected that the toluene market will fluctuate in the short term.

Loose price of ethylene glycol
The price of ethylene glycol has started to loosen this week. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4436.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% from last Friday’s average price of 4463.33 yuan/ton; Compared to the average price of 4396.67 yuan/ton on July 1st, the price of ethylene glycol has increased by 0.91%.
In terms of imported ethylene glycol, on July 31, 2025, the spot contract price of ethylene glycol at the port first strengthened and then weakened with the market, with a trading range of 4480-4490 yuan/ton. The intraday basis slightly strengthened, and this week’s spot contract intraday basis range was+67 to+72. As of the close, the night trading low hanging basis is between+73 and+74.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 3950-4100 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of July 28th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 528 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 546 US dollars/ton.
Port inventory remained relatively low in July
From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and from March to April, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. From May to June 2025, there will be a significant decrease in the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China. Currently, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port is relatively low. As of July 28th, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port was 456500 tons, a decrease of 85500 tons from the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the East China main port on July 3rd, which was 542000 tons.

Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July
Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% from the market average price of 20786.67 yuan/ton on July 1.
Aluminum prices may experience strong fluctuations in August
Supply side: In August 2025, the supply of electrolytic aluminum will present a dual track pattern of “domestic stable growth+overseas supplementation”. Domestically, Yunnan trade in projects (such as Hongtai with a production capacity of 87790 tons) will gradually start production in late August, and with the completion of Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III, the expected operating capacity will increase to 43.52 million tons (month on month+100000 tons), with a monthly output growth of 2.5% year-on-year to 3.726 million tons. Overseas supply should not be underestimated, with electrolytic aluminum production in countries such as Brazil and South Africa increasing by over 30% year-on-year. The scale of Russian aluminum entering the country through direct trade remains high (imports accounted for nearly 90% from January to June). In terms of alumina, domestic production increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 7.336 million tons, coupled with the easing of the tight delivery capacity problem in Xinjiang (after mid August), the cost side support has weakened. At the inventory level, as of July 31, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased to 544000 tons, and it is expected to continue the trend of accumulated inventory in August, with a high point of 550000 tons.
On the demand side: In early August, it was still the traditional off-season for consumption, and downstream processing enterprises maintained low operating rates (50% for aluminum profiles and 70% for cables). However, after mid August, the demand for “Golden September and Silver October” stocking gradually started, and aluminum rod inventory was slightly reduced, while aluminum plate and foil orders improved month on month. In the field of new energy, the production of photovoltaic modules remained unchanged in August compared to the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of new energy vehicles slowed down to 15%. However, policy incentives (such as the implementation of “recognizing houses but not loans” in China) may indirectly drive the demand for construction aluminum. Overall, the demand side presents a game pattern of “weak reality in the off-season” and “strong expectations in the peak season”.
Macro influencing factors:
Starting from August 1st, the United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian aluminum products, which may lead to the flow of South American aluminum to the Chinese market and exacerbate domestic supply pressure.
Domestic policies provide support: special bond issuance accelerates, private economic support measures and other stable growth policies are intensified to boost market sentiment in the short term, but the “anti involution” policy regulates industry competition order.
The phased easing of tariffs between China and the United States (suspending 24% tariffs and retaining 10% tariffs) has eased concerns about trade frictions, but there is still uncertainty after the 90 day buffer period.
Future expectations

In the short term, aluminum prices in August will show a trend of weak first and then strong. The core driving factor has shifted from “inventory accumulation” to “peak season expectations and policy games”. Under the main trend of loose supply and weak demand, the upward space of aluminum prices is limited, and the expected operating range is 20300-21100 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of polyester staple fiber fluctuated slightly and declined in July. As of July 30th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81% from the beginning of the month.
Recently, due to the combined impact of long and short factors, the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States is still ongoing, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. As of July 29th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $69.21 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.51 per barrel.
The domestic PTA spot market in July showed a V-shaped trend, with an average price of 4889 yuan/ton in the East China PTA market as of July 30th, a decrease of 3.79% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the cost support for crude oil fluctuations was limited, and the PTA industry’s capacity expansion expectations were combined with polyester production reduction expectations. Under the weak supply-demand situation, PTA showed a weak pattern. But with the recovery of macro sentiment and the firm trend of commodities, the PTA market rebounded weakly due to this impact.
Due to multiple factors such as high temperature weather and traditional off-season, the improvement of demand is weak. Downstream yarn factories have insufficient orders, and losses have begun to expand, hindering procurement enthusiasm and maintaining essential procurement. Under the atmosphere of macroeconomic sentiment warming at the end of the month, it stimulated buying sentiment and led to a slight increase in demand.
Business analysts believe that the macro sentiment has rebounded and costs have rebounded weakly. There has been some replenishment of inventory at the low end, and inventory pressure in polyester short fiber factories has eased. However, the subsequent supply and demand expectations are still weak, and the upward drive is limited. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber in August will still mainly follow the fluctuations of cost and demand.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market performed weakly in July. On July 1st, the market price of aniline was 7900 yuan/ton, and on July 29th it was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.65% during the month and a decrease of 27.16% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
The aniline market in July was mainly affected by costs and its own supply and demand. At the beginning of the month, mainstream factories led the decline and prices were widely lowered. Multiple sets of maintenance devices were restarted one after another within the week, and the supply side weakened. Due to the decline in crude oil prices and high port inventories, the raw material pure benzene experienced a weak downward trend, while aniline saw a wide decline, with the lowest price dropping to 7000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, aniline fell to a low level, and low prices began to rise. Downstream demand entered the market, and new orders were scarce. Upstream pure benzene oscillates narrowly, but it still supports aniline. In mid to late July, the market supply and demand remained stable, and aniline was mainly affected by fluctuations in raw materials, with the overall increase being smaller than the decrease.
Pure benzene: The pure benzene market fluctuated in July, with the lowest price occurring on July 8th due to its own supply and demand as well as macro privacy concerns. On July 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 5942 yuan/ton, and on July 29th, the average price was 5988 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.74%.
3、 Future expectations
The current supply of aniline in the market is stable, with average demand, which continues to drive up downstream resistance. In addition, the weak trend of pure benzene is expected to lead to a narrow consolidation and operation of the aniline market in the short term.