production capacity in 2017, plans to add 5 million 100 thousand tons of methanol production capacity, the growth rate was 6.92%, in 2017 the domestic methanol production capacity is expected to be 78 million 780 thousand tons, 3 million tons of methanol production capacity but which are supporting the downstream device, the actual net amount invested only 2 million 100 thousand tons, so that the overall domestic methanol in 2017 to maintain a low growth rate about supply.

The cost of domestic coal, affected the supply side reforms continued to rise, Shaanxi 5500 kcal coal pit from 165 rose to the highest 485 yuan / ton, methanol cost corresponding to 1213 rose to 2013 yuan / ton, the cost rose as high as 66%, so the current northwest region of coal methanol profits are still in the range of 0-500 shock although, methanol prices rose, but the production profit has not improved significantly, and the high cost of methanol gas head profit is lower, so in 2017 the cost of coal supply side reforms in 2017 will continue, but the government does not want to see higher prices, it is expected that in 2017 Kengkou coal still maintain the current rate of about the level of expected cost basically 2017 coal methanol shocks in the vicinity of 2000, count 400 of the freight, the price of methanol in East China the cost of support in the vicinity of 2400.

The stock of domestic supply, 2016 due to upstream profits and no significant improvement in the overall equipment operation rate is still in the range of 50%-70% shock, if removed long-term parking (of which 4 million tons of methanol gas, head) device to enhance the rate of 5.5%, the overall capacity utilization rate is higher than in previous years the level, which is mainly affected by the olefin demand release in recent years, but 2017 did not increase demand and profit of methanol production of olefins, also no obvious improvement, it is expected that the stock is expected to increase supply, supply growth in 2017 mainly from the whole new capacity.

The import side, because of the domestic supply and demand pattern changes, the growth rate of imports of methanol in 2016 rose 62%, the highest monthly volume of imports reached 926 thousand tons, far higher than the level of previous years, although the overall methanol dependency of less than 20%, but for the East China market of methanol supply, most of the imports, so in 2017 will focus on concerned about the import effect on methanol disk. The 2017 outer new capacity is not much new capacity plan is 3 million 790 thousand tons, and concentrated in the second half of the year, investment is the main origin of the United States and Iran, the highest peak in 2018, concentrated in the United States, so that overall imports in 2017 will remain high, but there will be a substantial increase in may.

The demand side, continued to shrink in 2016 the traditional demand, especially the two ether atrophy is very powerful, the proportion dropped to 31%, the olefin demand accounted for a substantial increase to 45%, in addition to methanol fuel (including methanol gasoline) accounted for 16% of 2017, olefin demand continues to rise, only 400 thousand tons of Changzhou, Jiangsu Sheng Fu Tak rainbow 1 million 200 thousand tons at the end of 2016, although the 2017 launch, and the Saline Lake in Qinghai, Gansu Huating coal and GF total 1 million 400 thousand tons of MTO release, but are supporting the corresponding device with the addition of methanol, methanol fuel oil prices rebound, the demand rate probably rose steadily, thus, the overall demand growth in 2017, olefin demand is not net growth the other hand, the slow growth, so the overall demand will be weakened, also need to pay more attention to the profits of olefin plant of methanol production, the linkage of the two 2017 will be significantly stronger than in previous years.

It is reported that, in accordance with the principle of legislation, environmental tax is a tax shift from the sewage charges “,” translation “to the environmental tax levied on all existing sewage charges and consistent, levied for atmospheric pollutants, water pollutants, solid waste and noise.

Deputy director of the Standing Committee of the NPC Law Committee of the law department Wang Qing introduced, compared to the previous system of sewage charges, there are mainly two different environmental law. One is the provisions of the air pollution and water pollution tax rate. Up to 10 times for each air pollutant pollution equivalent to 1.2-12 yuan, water pollutants for each pollution equivalent to 1.4-14 yuan. The two is based on the reduction to increase a tax relief provisions that taxpayers taxable emissions of air pollutants concentration or water pollutants value is lower than the standard 30%, reducing the environmental protection tax levied by 75%.

Director of the Ministry of Finance Tax Secretary Wang Jianfan said that the current financial system, sewage charges is the implementation of the central and local 1 to 9 into, considering the local governments bear the primary responsibility for pollution control, environmental protection tax will be after all as the local income, no longer participate into the central.

The environmental protection law, will start from the tax lever to make the enterprise more sewage will pay more, less sewage can enjoy tax relief, through the transformation of the construction to promote the adjustment of economic structure and development mode of the green tax system, the formation of effective incentive mechanism, forced corporate emissions.

Environmental monitoring, water sector benefit

Experts believe that the environmental tax for the sewage charges as tax collection efforts greatly strengthened, lower tax revenue will be a substantial increase in environmental protection. Data show that in 2003-2015 years, the total sewage charges 211 billion 599 million yuan, of which 2015 sewage charges levied 17 billion 300 million yuan. According to the Central University of Finance and Economics estimated that the environmental tax levy, expected annual environmental tax levy scale up to 50 billion yuan.

Sealand securities analyst believes that the tax will encourage enterprises to take the initiative to pursue energy-saving emission reduction, increase investment in environmental protection, improve the technical level, the elimination of backward production capacity, to achieve the transformation of economic structure; environmental tax levy will provide adequate funds for investment in environmental protection, but also for environmental governance to provide financial support.

Analysts believe that after the implementation of environmental tax, environmental protection industry will make comprehensive benefit. Among them, the first direct benefit is the environmental monitoring sector, because the tax to the monitoring data, need to install monitoring equipment or the third party monitoring service, test and other leading companies concern; secondly, environmental taxes forced enterprises to control pollution, good industrial wastewater treatment prospects, originwater concern; finally, a large amount of solid waste generated hazardous waste collection, high tax, environmental tax levy solid waste sector is expected to exceed expectations, Jinyuan shares, Dongjiang environmental benefit etc..

But since October this year methanol plant more maintenance, Jiangsu Hengsheng 300 thousand tons, 400 thousand tons, Guodian Shaanxi Shenmu Yinglite 500 thousand tons of methanol plant has parking; another part of low load operation. Device maintenance, low load operation led to tight supply.

On the demand side, an improvement in downstream demand. China’s methanol 10 year apparent consumption was 42 million 643 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 14.9%. In October China’s methanol production increased 6.9%; apparent consumption grew by 7.5%. An improvement in downstream demand.

Orient Securities Zhao Chen believes that the biggest gap between supply and demand, rising the fastest time is now. But the chemicals rising trend has not ended, the final price will be the most marginal cost line capacity to repair when the balance of supply and demand.

Recommendations concern also at the bottom of the urea industry, with the cost of support, high industry boom can be maintained until next year or the PVC industry , to maintain a moderate recovery of soda industry, and related listed companies.

In the Wall Street informative “2017 global best investment opportunities” annual summit, gf securities Chief macroeconomic analyst Guo Lei said that commodity investments actually change with the entire demand correlation is very high.

Futures market speculation: players will fry God

Methanol futures bullish MA1701 topped 3070 yuan / ton.

At present, most parts of the country due to the early demand caused by the rise of methanol has been completed, some areas have begun callback. But the East China market at full speed up.

In the view of futures daily increase in neither the actual demand, and the peripheral arbitrage all open cases, because methanol paper market exists, provides convenience for duanchao.

But with the Bikong intensifies, market has become a gambler’s playground. The lack of supervision of the paper market, the cost of default is low, there is a lever.

This week the price of potassium chloride market consolidation, the potassium chloride market mainstream offer price at 1930 yuan / ton, and 1930 yuan / ton compared to earlier in the week by 0.16%.

quotations analysis

Product: this week the potassium chloride market to maintain a high level consolidation, the market supply tight but the overall turnover is slow, small. Domestic K, Qinghai shipping problems has not been improved, 60% potassium chloride for the Saline Lake station price at 1920 yuan / ton, Qinghai factory 57% powdery potassium chloride foreign sales agents offer in 1700 yuan / ton. The port supply increased, but large dealers still control the supply, 62% Russian White potash prices in 2030-2050 yuan / ton, the Russian Red quotation at 1880-1920 yuan / ton.

Downstream industry chain: compound fertilizer affected by environmental inspection group, the overall operating rate remained at about 5.5 into the factory, purchasing power shortage, coupled with the terminal market hit by fertilizer Co., so the overall turnover is slow, small.

Industry: the international market as a whole is stable, the market slowdown. Among them, Brazil, Southeast of potassium chloride CIF price steady, respectively 230-240 dollars / ton, $230-260 / ton, the Russian Federal potassium chloride FOB price for the previous week at $189-244 / ton, Canada, Israel and Jordan KCl offshore prices held steady over the previous week, respectively 197-232 dollars / ton, $201-244 / ton 218-243 dollars / ton.

Market forecast

The winter is steadily, the market bullish positive atmosphere. The spot to supply resulting in floor control of large dealers, and transportation. The above price is expected next week for consolidation of potassium chloride.

ZJ0712, fluorine ether amide, fluconazole bacteria activated ester, flumorph, SYP-Z048, SYP-1620, ZJ0712, enestroburin, clove, azoxystrobin Shenqinmycin, thiodiazole copper, JS399-19, dufulin, nalidixic bacterium ester, thiazole zinc chloride, Pyraoxystrobin, paichongding, epoxy worms and ceftazidime, hnpc-a2005, chlorofluorinated kresoxim, Pyrimorph, Pyrametostrobin, methyl thiadiazole induced amine, fluorine mites ester, cyclohexyl amine, methyl benzene thiazide bacteria bacteria ester and two cloxazolam spirit, JS 9117, SYP-12194 SIOC0426, ZJ1835, H-0909, HNPC-A9092, HNPC-A8169, UWL-2004-L-13, etc..

Preparation of innovation is mainly reflected in 3 aspects: one is a new dosage form, to reduce or eliminate the organic solvent with water as high new dosage form of matrix or solid, such as aqueous emulsion, microemulsion, aqueous suspension, main agent, microcapsule dynamic and efficient seed; two is the mixture, the different mechanism different, the scope of control, effective components, different ways of scientific collocation, processed into preparation, can greatly improve the efficacy, reduce toxicity and delay the resistance, reduce the cost of prevention; three is the new use and use method, test and expand the pesticide registration in the prevention of new crops and new objects and new use method, old mining the product potential, expand the scope of application of pesticide.

Chinese is the production of the world’s largest number of national pesticide. Not only meet the domestic use of pesticides in China, and half of the total output of pesticide in China for export, so Chinese is worthy of the name of pesticide export country, currently China pesticide exports to more than and 180 countries and regions in the world. Since 2011, the optimization of China’s pesticide and preparation proportion of export structure is more and more obvious, now exports more than 60% preparations accounted for the largest, followed by herbicide, insecticide and fungicide, non patented bulk products, more than 400 varieties, more than 10 products exports in 2015 the amount of $100 million for glyphosate, paraquat, imidacloprid, clethldim, chlorpyrifos, atrazine, dicamba, abamectin, sulfentrazone, chlorothalonil. In 2015, China’s pesticide export total quantity of 1 million 509 thousand tons, the amount of $7 billion 280 million, accounted for the total import and export quantity and the total amount of 96.3% and 91.5%.

In our country every year to import large quantities of imported pesticides to pesticide, fungicide formulations, mostly involving more than and 200 varieties of effective components, the amount of imports before ten varieties of chlorantraniliprole, five fluorosulfonyl grass amine, glyphosate, mancozeb, thiamethoxam, Difenoconazole, azoxystrobin and tebuconazole and Metalaxyl-M, trifloxystrobin. In 2015 the total number of China’s pesticide imported pesticides was 58 thousand tons, the total amount of imports of $680 million, of which the pesticide export volume of 1 million 509 thousand tons, the amount of $7 billion 280 million, accounted for the total import and export quantity and the total amount of 3.7% and 9.5%.

According to the national 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) plant protection station (excluding Tibet) statistics, in 2015 China’s use of agricultural products 926 thousand and 400 tons (commodities), 100% of the amount of 300 thousand tons, of which 1.45%. less than the previous year, 108 thousand and 900 tons of pesticides, 7.92% less than the previous year, accounting for 36.30% of the total pesticide; sterilization agent 80 thousand tons, an increase of 0.07% over last year, accounting for 26.67% of the total herbicide pesticide; 107 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 4.76% over last year, accounting for 35.74% of the total pesticide; plant growth regulator 3845.17 tons, an increase of 1.32% over last year, accounting for 1.28% of the total pesticide; rodenticide 47.89 tons, 27.30% less than the previous year, accounting for 0.02%. of the total pesticide