India is expected to explode procurement: urea exports are improving?

China’s urea is facing increased production, domestic agriculture (pay attention: just agriculture) to reduce demand and exports to reduce the three major negative factors, there are other negative factors? If not, the above has been analyzed before the two factors, Of the analysis to be a simple review: First, the decline in corn planting area brought about by the largest reduction in the amount of urea will not exceed 1.5 million tons; Second, the export will not significantly decline in the case, even if the urea operating rate returned to 70% , It is also difficult to ensure that the supply of domestic summer. Analyze the last question today: late exit.

I do not do international trade, so the discussion of this issue a little bit of the ax, but several phenomena worthy of attention: First, the United States and India, a substantial reduction in urea imports; Second, India’s first round of bidding this year, only to recruit 260,000 tons; After the end of a round of bidding, immediately announced a new round of bidding; Fourth, the international market more than a big reversal of the vacancy.

From the US Department of Agriculture published planting intention report, the United States this year will face the adjustment of planting structure: corn, wheat and rice area decreased, while the cotton and soybean area increased, the overall acreage changed little. US agriculture is highly marketed and the statistics are more credible, so use this report to predict global demand changes, believing that readers will not have much objection. In this report, the author explained the following: First, China’s past storage and storage of agricultural products are the lowest in the current global price, in addition to the price of agricultural products is not bad; Second, although the domestic prices are talking about agricultural prices caused by fertilizer demand But the global acreage will not be significantly reduced this year; third is in the relatively high degree of market-oriented countries, in addition to increasing the soybean and cotton Area, the sugar planted area will increase significantly, which may be Brazil’s urea imports increased over the same period last year, the reasons for the increase.

So why is the US imports of urea significantly reduced? I believe that there may be three reasons: the increase in production, demand reduction and panic a little delay. The author lacks specific data, but it is certain that the new production is 100,000 tons, the demand is reduced by one hundred thousand tons, while the import reduction is one million tons, so the gap can only be delayed by the price to delay the procurement to explain. Time has arrived in April, rigid demand is about to release, taking into account the shipping period, procurement time is running out. In fact, last week the US market has shown signs of bottoming up, but a slap in the face, another look at another big importer – India.

Some people say that India’s high inventory, ask, high library in the first round of the tender just after the end of the second round of bidding will be held? Some people say that last year, India’s urea sales fell by nearly 3 million tons, which is equivalent to India’s annual sales 10%, due to agricultural prices caused by the decline in planting area so much? Reference to the US Department of Agriculture report analysis, the demand is significantly less likely to reduce; is the cause of the weather is unlikely, so I suggest a larger May be less than when farmers do not buy fat, so it seems high circulation channels. If this is the case, once India’s demand erupted, not only to make up for the pre-import gap, but also to meet the normal year of the purchase, which will create India’s history, the largest amount of urea procurement year, I even optimistic to believe that India Procurement can support the global market in the first half of the degree! India can not wait to tender, may mean that India officially opened to buy buy buy model!

Unfortunately, the international market after the Spring Festival more than empty, the trend seems to be the same as the above analysis of the author, and the domestic port has become a popular market concern, how to understand these two issues, because of space reasons, the next chapter to do analysis.

Summary: the international market has been overdraft bad, rigid demand is coming, the improvement of urea exports worth looking forward to!