Oil trading volumes are close to their highest level since November last year due to trade optimism and the impact of the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s world’s largest offshore oil field to tighten supply, Bloomberg reported.

Futures prices in New York rose another 1% after rising 5.4% last week. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is said to be repairing a damaged cable that limits production in the Saffanian oil field.

Crude oil prices have soared by about 24% this year as Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to expand production cuts, alleviating fears that record U.S. production will lead to a global oversupply of crude oil. This further increases investors’risk preference.

As OPEC and its allies accelerate the implementation of the output reduction agreement reached in December last year, concerns about the intensification of the trade war and the global economic slowdown are fading. In its report, OPEC said that a new round of oil supply cuts had begun strongly and Saudi Arabia had promised to reduce production to above the agreed level.

According to CNPC, PetroChina International Exploration and Development Co., Ltd. continued to increase its overseas oil and gas exploration efforts. In January, the equivalent output of oil and gas rights and interests was 89.66 million tons, of which 67.886 million tons of crude oil and 2.75 billion cubic meters of natural gas exceeded the monthly plan.

The Central Asian Company pays close attention to the stable production and production of the oilfields under the projects, increases the strength of natural gas supply in winter, and speeds up the production of new gas fields. The first phase project of the third gas field in the eastern part of Bagdelay B area was put into operation on January 10, with a daily increase of 4.05 million cubic meters, which provided important support for the completion of the task of supplying natural gas in winter.

The Middle East Company continues to do a good job in crude oil production and capacity building, and strives to promote the effective development and stable production of key projects. Venezuela’s MPE3 project actively responds to the special situation, and the number of wells opened remains basically stable. Through optimizing the parameters of oil wells, daily production is maintained at about 130,000 barrels, and January production is maintained online.

Ecuador Andean Company’s output exceeded its plan in January, and the upstream project in Chad strengthened the supervision and management of contractors, effectively ensuring that Phase 2.2 oilfield was put into operation on schedule.

According to the overall deployment, a number of key projects such as Niger Phase II Capacity Building Project, Russian Yamal LNG Project, Iraqi Hafaya Project Phase III, United Arab Emirates Land and Sea Project Phase I, Mozambique Block 4 LNG Project have been steadily promoted as planned.

Almaty, February 14, International Telegraph Agency (ITC) — Kazakhstan’s energy minister, Bozum Bayev, said at a plenary session of the Senate that day that Kazakhstan may begin exporting gasoline by the end of March 2019. “This year, we will have a surplus of 500-650,000 tons of gasoline,” Bo said. Since the beginning of the year, there has been a surplus. From January to February this year, we have depressed refinery capacity. In October 2018, Russia and Kazakhstan signed a protocol on Amending relevant energy cooperation agreements to lift Kazakhstan’s ban on gasoline exports to CIS countries.

The global natural rubber production area as a whole began to transition from high-yielding period to low-yielding period, and the expected seasonal decrease in supply boosted the rubber market.

As of January, the natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan have been completely cut off. Due to the decrease of raw glue supply, the purchase price of rubber factories has risen slightly, and the sales sentiment has risen. With the continuous decline of temperature, the northern and central parts of Thailand took the lead in the transition to the cut-off season. In mid-January, it was heard that some areas had been cut-off. In early 2019, Typhoon Pabu landed in the Gulf of Thailand, Thailand suffered from continuous heavy rainfall, resulting in the abnormal development of rubber tapping activities. However, the direct impact of typhoon is relatively short. After the weather improved, rubber tapping gradually resumed in southern Thailand, and the production was very abundant.

It is reported that rubber production in southern Thailand doubled in January, and is expected to be smoothly produced by the end of February. Indonesia and Malaysia cut rubber relatively smoothly and are expected to enter the production reduction period in February. Indonesia’s production area is affected by diseases, and its yield is about 20% lower than that of the previous year. Most rubber plantations in Vietnam stopped cutting ahead of schedule in February to save wages due to low rubber prices and meager profits.

To sum up, the global supply of natural rubber will gradually move from peak to trough. The basic area of natural rubber is weak and difficult to return, but under the seasonal rule or out of the rebound market.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs on February 14, China’s imports of natural gas reached a record high of 98.09 million tons in January 2019, an increase of 26.8% over the same period last year, and the cumulative imports of natural gas reached 4.86 billion US dollars (33.51 billion RMB), an increase of 59.1% over the same period last year.

Thus, in January 2019, the average import price of natural gas was 495.9 US dollars per ton (3620.1 yuan per ton), an increase of 103.1 US dollars per ton, or 26.2% over the previous year.

In terms of quantity, in January 2019, China’s natural gas imports reached a record high. We know that China’s natural gas imports remain high in winter heating demand. In January of this year, while the temperature continued to be low, the natural gas supply in Kangzen, Turkmenistan, fell sharply in the short term, causing short-term panic in the market. In order to stabilize the market and guarantee the demand for natural gas during the Spring Festival in early February, the import volume of natural gas in January continued to increase by 576,000 tons at the high level of 9.233 million tons in December last year, an increase of 6.2%.

In terms of unit import prices, the cost of natural gas imports in January was slightly lower than the historical high of $500.3 per ton in December last year, a decrease of less than 1.0%. However, compared with the same period last year, the unit price of imports increased significantly in January. In addition to the factors driving up demand, the rise in oil prices throughout the year has also affected the unit price of natural gas imports to a certain extent, according to the operators.

With the rapid growth of natural gas imports under low domestic supply, China’s dependence on natural gas has also increased substantially. “In 2018, China’s natural gas imports are expected to reach 125.4 billion cubic metres, an increase of nearly 30 billion cubic metres, with an external dependence of 45.3%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points over the same period last year.” According to the Report on the Development of Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad in 2018 (hereinafter referred to as the Report) issued by the Economic and Technological Research Institute of China Petroleum Group. At the same time, the report predicts that the domestic demand for natural gas will continue to grow rapidly in 2019, but the growth rate will decline somewhat, and the import volume will continue to grow rapidly.