LONDON, July 11 (Reuters) – OPEC forecast on Thursday that global demand for its crude oil will decline next year as competitors pump more crude oil, suggesting a surplus despite the OPEC-led agreement to limit supply.

The decline in OPEC’s demand for crude oil underlines that OPEC’s policy of supporting oil prices by cutting production is continuing to boost the supply of shale and other competitors in the United States.

In its monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) gave its first forecast for 2020, saying that next year the world will need 29.27 million barrels of crude oil per day from 14 member countries, a decrease of 1.34 million barrels compared with this year.

OPEC said that “tight U.S. crude oil production is expected to continue to grow, because the new pipeline will allow more Permian crude oil to flow into the U.S. Gulf Coast Export Center.”

In the report, OPEC also predicted that, despite the slowdown in growth in the major economies of the world, world oil demand will grow at the same pace this year, and the world economy will grow at the same rate this year.

On July 11, the rare earth index was 386 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 61.40% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 42.44% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 415,000 yuan/ton, dysprosium metal is 2.4 million yuan/ton and praseodymium metal is 710,000 yuan/ton. The average price of praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 322,500 yuan/ton, dysprosium oxide is 192,000 yuan/ton, praseodymium oxide is 405,000 yuan/ton and neodymium oxide is 324,500 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 415,000 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.92 million yuan per ton.

Recent price declines in rare earth market, domestic rare earth market trading market is general, most commodity prices in the rare earth market are stable, but in the near future, prices of some products in the rare earth market have fallen, prices of dysprosium and terbium metals have fallen, prices of praseodymium and neodymium series products have fallen in the near future, on-site supply is normal, and prices of light rare earth have fallen in the near future. Slippery. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is still tense. The price trend of rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, large enterprise groups on the market are reluctant to sell. The market trend of rare earth is poor. However, major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has declined.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar restricts exports and reduces supply, but rare earth market transactions are limited in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to fall.

On July 10, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 57.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.20% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 18.59% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiations is 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the phthalic anhydride market in North China is still under pressure. Mainstream quotation is 5900-6000 yuan/ton, market price rises slightly, quotations of enterprises are slightly higher, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, phthalic anhydride price trend is rising.

Recently, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import price of o-phthalic anhydride in the port area has risen, and the quotation has risen. Recently, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in the port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is higher, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend shocks, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price rises, isooctanol price rises, DOP cost rises. DOP price shocks are higher, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks are stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7400 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure is weakened, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.

On July 8, the rare earth index was 393 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 60.70% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 45.02% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals dropped by 10,000 yuan per ton to 425,000 yuan per ton, Dysprosium by 2.4 million yuan per ton and praseodymium by 7.1 million yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxides in rare earth oxides fell by 10,000 yuan/ton to 327,500 yuan/ton, dysprosium oxide price was 1.965 million yuan/ton, praseodymium oxide price was 4.05 million yuan/ton, and neodymium oxide price dropped by 10,000 yuan/ton to 329,500 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys dropped by 10,000 yuan per ton to 425,000 yuan per ton, while the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys was 1.965 million yuan per ton.

Recent price declines in rare earth market, domestic rare earth market trading market is general, most commodity prices in the rare earth market are stable, but in the near future, prices of some products in the market have fallen, prices of dysprosium and terbium metals have remained stable, prices of praseodymium and neodymium series products have declined in the near future, on-site supply is normal, and prices of light rare earths have recently moved. The situation is declining. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is still tense. The price trend of rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, large enterprise groups are reluctant to sell, and the market of rare earth has improved. However, the major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry is general.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that domestic environmental stringency will not diminish in the near future, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar restricts exports and reduces supply, but rare earth market transactions are limited in the near future, and some prices in the rare earth market are expected to fall.

I. Trend analysis

According to data from business associations, the copper market price on July 8 was 46448.33 yuan per ton, down 0.04% from the previous day and 5.2% from the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Good U.S. non-farm employment data on Friday showed that the Fed’s interest rate cut is likely to fall in the near future. The dollar index surged sharply to depress copper prices. There is no significant change in the fundamentals of the copper market. The tight supply of copper and scrap in mines offsets the demand concerns caused by trade disputes. However, LME copper stocks increased and copper fundamentals weakened slightly.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In summary, copper analysts from the Nonferrous Branch of Business Association believe that supply and demand are weak, and copper short-term small shocks are expected to dominate.