I. trend analysis

 

According to the data of the business agency, today’s domestic copper price changed from the previous narrow fluctuation trend, rising 1.56% to 48133.33 yuan / ton per day, rising nearly 800 yuan / ton per day, down 0.06% from the beginning of the year, up 2.55% year on year. The main reason is that China US trade negotiations are close to reaching the first stage agreement. In November, the domestic copper import data was stable and multiple positive results triggered the copper market.

 

II. Current chart

 

According to the data of the current period chart of the business agency, the main contract price is the price in the next two months, and the spot price is higher than the main contract price, indicating that people’s expectations on copper price are not so good.

 

Macro oriented

 

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U.S. non farm payrolls rose the most in 10 months in November, confirming that the economy is still expanding moderately, easing market concerns. The UK’s housing price index rose to a 7-month high in November after the quarter adjustment of Halifax, reflecting a significant improvement in the UK’s real estate market. At the end of the year, the economic meeting of the Political Bureau of China indicated that the policy was to support the economic growth and the Sino US trade negotiations were close to reaching the first stage agreement.

 

Low inventory

 

Copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued to decline, falling below the 200000 ton mark to 193800 tons, a new low since May 29, according to data released on Friday. As of December 6, copper inventory in the previous period continued to decline, down 6.26%, to 112667 tons, a new low since the beginning of the year.

 

Scrap copper ran out of approvals in the fourth quarter

 

In terms of scrap copper, most domestic enterprises that need to import scrap copper say that the approval documents in the fourth quarter have been exhausted, and some enterprises actively purchase scrap copper ingots and other alternative raw materials in the market. On the supply side, it will still be tight in the future, and the global dominant inventory will decline.

 

Stable demand side

 

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After entering the fourth quarter, China’s automobile and home appliance sales have improved, and the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has increased substantially year on year. With the end of the year infrastructure investment, copper market demand remains stable in the traditional off-season situation in the fourth quarter.

 

III. future prospects

 

Based on the above situation, the copper analyst of nonferrous branch of business agency thinks that: the Sino US trade negotiation is close to reaching the first stage agreement, the supply of copper is always tight, the inventory is low, and the demand is stable, but it enters the seasonal demand off-season in December, and it is expected that copper will maintain a strong operation trend, but the strength of the bank is limited.

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I. price trend

 

According to a large number of data on the list of business agencies, this week’s price reduction of aniline in Shandong region and Nanjing region promoted shipment. Last Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong was 6500 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 6900 yuan / ton. On Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 6100 yuan / ton, down 6.15% from last week, while that in Nanjing was 6600 yuan / ton, down 4.35% from last week.

 

II. Analysis and comment

 

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Raw materials: the listing price of pure benzene on Friday is 5250-5450 yuan / ton, slightly higher than last week. The port inventory of pure benzene this week is lower than that of last week, the domestic spot supply of pure benzene is tight, the negotiation atmosphere is good, driving the price up slightly

 

Product: from 8300-8700 yuan / ton in early November to 6100-6600 yuan / ton now, the decline is more than 23%, mainly due to the supply of aniline. At present, the profit of aniline is small. This week, the aniline plant is in normal operation and the enterprise has sufficient inventory. In order to stimulate the downstream to take goods, the price has been lowered twice.

 

III. future expectation

 

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Raw materials: crude oil and foreign market are good for pure benzene market; spot supply is tight, and pure benzene enterprises are expected to raise their inventory.

 

Compared with the high price and high profit situation of aniline at the beginning of November, the profit of aniline is small at present, and the downward space is small. It is expected that aniline will maintain stable and weak operation and wait for the recovery opportunity.

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I. price trend:

 

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market recovered in November and the spot price in the domestic market rose in a narrow range. As of November 30, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13050.00 yuan / ton, up 0.77% from the beginning of the month.

 

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II. Analysis of influencing factors:

 

Industry chain: ABS upstream, this month styrene market price shock finishing. The domestic supply is in good condition, and the port inventory remains high. In the late ten days, the international crude oil market continued to be positive, and the overall oil price fluctuated upward, giving styrene cost support. The upstream ethylene and pure benzene are slightly consolidated, the downstream PS and EPS prices are stable, the enterprise’s operating rate is good, the factory’s production and sales are stable, and the purchase is on demand. In the near December, arrival styrene will increase, which will bring a certain impact on the domestic styrene market supply. In the short term, styrene supply will increase, but the downstream price is strong, the operation is good, the styrene digestion capacity is good, and the current styrene price acceptance is high. It is suggested that we should continue to pay attention to the market guidance of the trend of external and bulk futures;

 

This month, the spot market of acrylonitrile related products was relatively stable, and the supply side remained balanced at the beginning and the middle of the month. Traders were cautious in their quotations, making more trades with lower profits. By the end of the month, there was a decrease in the supply of goods within the site and the supply began to be insufficient. The downstream waiting atmosphere is heavy and the replenishment enthusiasm is general. However, the attitude of the industry is stable, an

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d the acrylonitrile market is up slightly at present;

 

In November, the market of butadiene was more volatile, and the price of ex factory products was up and down. At the beginning of the month, the sudden shutdown of Lanzhou Petrochemical Plant led to the increase of mutual supply of Fushun and Ningmei. In addition, Fushun Petrochemical also had a short-term shutdown plan. The unexpected news from the supply side boosted the market. However, the downstream demand follow-up is limited, and the market upward resistance is obvious. In addition, the supply of foreign ocean going cargo is abundant and the price is low, which obviously drags the domestic spot market. In the middle and late ten days, with the restart of Ningmei and Huayu units and the export of Fushun Petrochemical products, the increase of spot supply continued to put pressure on the market; however, at the same time, the external market stopped falling and stabilized, bringing support to the mentality of some merchants in East China, and the market was mainly sorted out in a small way. In the last week of the month, the spot supply in the North was lower than expected, and the supply side boosted the market to move higher. The follow-up to the real single price and high price in the downstream was limited, but the market still rose significantly under the guidance of the supplier price. At present, the spot supply of butadiene is tight in the short term, and the news that the operating rate is declining is positive. However, with the downstream synthetic rubber market limited, demand drag, butadiene unilateral pull up resistance may increase, there is no lack of weakness in the middle and late period. Butadiene market performance may be strong in the short term. It is suggested that attention should be paid to whether the information of external devices can bring substantial good support to the shipping market;

 

3. Future forecast:

 

Business analysts think: in November, the ABS market rose slightly, and the spot prices of various brands recovered. Cost side of the upstream three materials this month to actively adjust, there is some support for the cost side. The downstream factories have limited improvement in price inquiry, general gas purchase, and continuation of the strategy of just in need replenishment. Merchants’ mentality is stable for the time being, and the delivery is based on the market. It is expected that ABS in China will rise in a narrow range in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.

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1. Nickel spot trend

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price dropped sharply again on the 4th, with a quotation of 108300 yuan / ton, down 3.04% compared with the previous trading day, and 3000 yuan / ton per day, down 26.57% compared with the highest price of 147483.33 yuan / ton on September 3 of this year, nearly 30%, a new low since July 17. On July 4, 2002 contract of Shanghai nickel futures reached a minimum of 103360 yuan / ton, a new low since July 10, with a decline of more than 3%. The market has basically digested the negative sentiment of the ban on mining, and the downstream consumption is weak, so the nickel price fluctuates and falls all the way.

 

Indonesia announces a new round of tax relief

 

President jokowi of Indonesia issued government regulation No. 78 of 2019 on December 2. The latest regulation is about the preferential conditions of income tax for investment in specific industries or regions, including nickel ore business. The new regulation indicates that only enterprises meeting the conditions can enjoy the preferential policies. The conditions for accepting the preferential policies are subject to the value of assets invested by enterprises, including the amount of net income from tangible assets such as land Get a 30% tax cut, and share 5% of the tax cut every six years. Recently, the European Union complained to the WTO that Indonesia banned the export of nickel ore, which became the focus of the nickel market. Before that, a number of Indonesian officials still advocated to stop the export of nickel ore, and they need to continue to pay attention to the fermentation of the event. For example, if the European Union wins the lawsuit, Indonesia’s resumption of nickel ore export may cause another huge market.

 

Indonesia’s ban on mining is good for consumption

 

Due to the continuous disturbance of the ore end, the nickel price began to rise from July, “Indonesia’s early implementation of the ban on mining policy” has become more realistic, pushing the nickel price to a new high since September 2014. However, the policy of early ban on mining has been put into effect, and the nickel price has fallen from a high in September. At the beginning of November, the Indonesian government suspended the delivery of nickel ore due to the investigation of nickel miners who violated the export regulations, and seven nickel export companies were examined for suspected violation of regulations No. 11 / 2019 of the Ministry of energy and mineral resources. However, the review results show that Indonesia will resume normal export of nickel ore below 1.7% grade before 2020 (but the ban on nickel ore in 2020 will still take effect). This led to a loosening of the expectation of strict ore ban, further accelerating the decline of nickel price.

 

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Stainless steel and lithium battery are two driving forces of nickel price demand

 

Public data shows that in 2019, China’s primary nickel consumption is expected to reach 1.307 million tons, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year. In terms of consumption structure, the consumption of stainless steel primary nickel accounts for 84.7%, electroplating 4.6%, battery 4.6%, and stainless steel still dominates nickel consumption. It is expected that China’s primary nickel consumption will reach 1.365 million tons in 2020, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. From the perspective of global primary nickel consumption, stainless steel dominates nickel consumption and lithium battery nickel consumption grows fastest. It is estimated that by 2025, stainless steel accounts for 67% of nickel consumption and battery industry accounts for 17%; by 2030, stainless steel accounts for 63% and battery accounts for 22%.

 

Downstream stainless steel drags nickel price

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of December 4, the daily average price of 304 / 2B stainless steel plate 1.0 * 1219 * 2438 (tolerance 0.91) was 13683.33 yuan / ton (including tax), which was 0.12% lower than the 13700 yuan / ton (including tax) of the previous trading day. Stainless steel has fallen steadily since October. In the first three quarters of this year, the domestic stainless steel output remained high, and the steel factory warehouse and social inventory climbed to a historical high. Therefore, the pressure of removing stainless steel warehouse at the end of this year continues to affect the market. After entering November, the production reduction of domestic mainstream steel plants has been implemented in succession. The price of stainless steel has fallen, which is bad for the demand of primary nickel, which also has a certain drag on the price of nickel. December is the off-season of traditional consumption of stainless steel. After routine maintenance of steel enterprises, stainless steel may enter into the situation of supply and demand. At the beginning of the month, most of the steel mills in China continued to reduce the factory price.

 

New energy nickel demand hit

 

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In October, the output of new energy vehicles in China was 85000, down 34.76% year on year. The negative impact of the decline of new energy subsidies is gradually obvious. Since July, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production in China has changed from positive to negative. By 2020, subsidies in the field of new energy vehicles will be fully withdrawn, severely hitting the market’s optimistic expectation of nickel demand in the field of new energy.

 

Bad news gathered, nickel prices fell continuously

 

To sum up, Liu Meili, nickel analyst of the business association, believes that with the favorable consumption of Indonesia’s ban on mining, the high nickel price has fallen, and the weak downstream demand, the high nickel price is difficult to support. In the near future, the market focuses on the EU’s complaint against Indonesia’s ban on mining at the WTO meeting. If the EU wins the lawsuit, that is, Indonesia will resume nickel mining in 2020 under the background of the local nickel iron construction progress being greatly advanced Therefore, in the future, nickel supply may be substantially excessive, which may cause a major blow to nickel prices. It is expected that nickel price will maintain a weak downward trend year ago, but after the Spring Festival, under the influence of the start-up of stainless steel plants, the ban on mining in Indonesia and the small amount of nickel ore shipments in the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel price may have a chance to rebound.

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I. price trend:

 

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA6 market weakened in November, with most brand quotations falling. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 12666.67 yuan / ton, down 6.17% from the beginning of the month.

 

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

 

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The decline of caprolactam upstream of PA6 continued, and the price fell 5.1% in the month, and the decline gradually slowed down. The upstream pure benzene market continued to rise and boost, and it was difficult to find low-cost sources in the market, so the short-term market was strong. At present, domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers have made it clear that there are not many offers, and the delivery level of enterprises is around 7700-7800 yuan / ton. Most of them supply supporting downstream production demand, and the inventory level is low. The trading atmosphere of cyclohexanone market is fair, with a strong focus on high-end products. In addition, the slightly stronger raw materials give some support. The trend of caprolactam was weak, and the support for PA6 cost end was poor. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not good, the on-site trading is light, the factory traders operate cautiously, and the confidence is not strong. There are few large-scale purchases in the domestic market in the near future. At present, the market confidence is insufficient, the market still has resistance, and the bottom is not present. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will be consolidated at a low level in the later period, and there is a risk of further decline; the upstream caprolactam will weaken, and the support for PA6 will be weakened. Affected by this negative, domestic PA6 spot prices mostly fell. In addition, at present, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the downstream purchase and documentary are insufficient. At present, the domestic PA6 production and trade e-commerce companies offer low-level operation.

 

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3. Future forecast:

 

In November, the domestic PA6 market weakened and spot prices fell, according to business analysts. Upstream caprolactam continued to decline, poor support for PA6 cost end. Downstream factories just need replenishment operation, the demand is flat and the list is light. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be weak in the near future.

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