I. price data

This week (12.9-12.13) the price of refined petroleum coke rose slightly. According to the data in the business club’s large list, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1007.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1022.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 15 yuan / ton in the week and down 1.49% in the week.

On December 13, the petroleum coke commodity index was 79.53, unchanged from yesterday, 48.88% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 18.90% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the delivery of refined petroleum coke was stable, and the price of some refineries increased slightly. This week, affected by the heavy fog weather, refinery shipments have been hindered.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States was $59.20/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $59.18/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 0.03%; Brent crude oil was $64.39/barrel at the beginning of the week, and $64.20/barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of – 0.30%. The results of OPEC production reduction meeting exceeded the market expectation, which was good for the oil market, EIA inventory data was completely negative, and the international crude oil market was in high volatility. Downstream: the shipment of calcined coke is not good, the enterprises mainly clear inventory, the market performance of electrolytic aluminum is average, the price of graphite electrode is stable, and the policy of limiting production and production in heating season is implemented in November. According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of December 13 is 14023.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three commodities are petroleum coke (1.49%), fuel oil (0.66%) and liquefied gas (0.59%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products are MTBE (- 3.90%), LNG (- 3.03%) and methanol (- 1.51%). This week’s average was – 0.52%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of business association predict that the market price of Petroleum Coke will rise slightly this week, mainly due to the increase of downstream inquiry, the reduction of refinery inventory pressure, and the reduction of sulfur content in some refineries. It is expected that the price of Petroleum Coke will rise slightly in the near future, and the price range may be around 900-1100 yuan / ton.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong was 6966.67 yuan / ton, down 17.55% year on year. Overall, this week’s octanol market was temporarily stable, with the octanol commodity index at 51.23 on December 13.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream octanol manufacturers is temporarily stable: hualuhengsheng’s ex factory quotation of octanol this weekend is 7000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6950 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of octanol this weekend is 6950 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 6733.08 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6740.77 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.11%, down 14.89% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market: the price of DOP factory rose slightly this week. The DOP quotation increased from 7366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7383.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.23%, down 17.35% year on year. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for octanol procurement, general demand for octanol, and low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

III. future forecast

In the middle of December, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support was general, the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general. According to the octanol analysts of the business club, the octanol market in Shandong in mid December may be consolidated at a low level under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

On December 12, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 123.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.23% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 71.72% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business agency: in December, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline, and the price continued to be at a new low, falling more than 20% from the beginning of November. As of December 12, the average price of hydrogen peroxide was 1133 yuan / ton, down 22.73% from the beginning of November and 10.05% from the beginning of December.

market analysis

Since November, the terminal hexanolenediamine of hydrogen peroxide has been on the bottom, the price has been falling constantly, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer has started normal operation, the market supply is surplus, and the power of hydrogen peroxide rising is insufficient. In December, the price still hasn’t improved, and it has fallen for nearly half a month, with a weekly drop of 50-100 yuan / ton, and some average prices have fallen below 1100 yuan / ton. As of December 12, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong area: Luxi Chemical 27.5% hydrogen peroxide 1080 yuan / ton; the price is 40 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of December; 300 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of November.

Hebei Province: the ex factory price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry fell to 1120 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton lower than that in early December; 180 yuan / ton lower than that in early November.

Anhui Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng, Anhui Province is 1200 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton lower than that in early December, and 200 yuan / ton lower than that in early November.

Hunan Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hunan is 1300 yuan / ton; the price is the same as that in early December; the price is the same as that in early November.

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted 1350 yuan / ton, a decrease of 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of December; a decrease of 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of November.

Industry chain: the price of caprolactam at the hydrogen peroxide terminal was dragged down by the decline of cyclohexanone, and the price continued to fall. In addition, the purchase demand of PA6 manufacturers at the caprolactam terminal was general. The price of caprolactam fell nearly 8% from November to December 12. Hydrogen peroxide itself is a kind of rising and falling product. When the demand is low, the lowest price is about 800 yuan / ton. The performance of caprolactam is poor, the decline of hydrogen peroxide is expanding, the price continues to fall deeply, the decline is far more than that of caprolactam, which has fallen together with hydrogen peroxide.

Outlook for the future

The hydrogen peroxide analyst of the business club thinks: at present, the price of hydrogen peroxide is still around 1100-1200 yuan / ton, and there is still a distance from the lowest 800 yuan / ton. In the off-season of demand, the space for hydrogen peroxide to rise is limited, or it will continue to fall, and the road to the bottom will continue.

I. trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on December 11, the spot nickel price increased slightly, with the quotation of 109900 yuan / ton, up 1.04% compared with the previous day, up 22.78% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 18.36% year on year. Shanghai nickel started trading at 104710 yuan, then continued to rise, closing at 107990 yuan, up 2.69%.

II. Market analysis

According to a copy of a new government regulation, Indonesia will raise the royalty tax on nickel ore sales from 5% to 10%, effective from December 25, including the royalty tax on sales of nickel pig iron. Indonesia’s increase in the right to sell and use nickel ore will lead to a rise in costs, with which nickel prices will rise. Basically, Indonesia’s ban of mining on January 1, 2020 ahead of schedule will lead to a domestic nickel gap next year, and the limited increase of nickel supply in the Philippines will support nickel. The price of downstream stainless steel is basically stable and the inventory is high, but the probability of large-scale production reduction driven by profit is small.

III. future prospects

Future forecast: the continued decline of the US dollar boosted the metal trend, Indonesia raised nickel ore sales and use right tax to boost nickel price, while the downstream stainless steel is not warm and not hot, and it is expected that the short-term nickel shock is strong.

On December 9, the rare earth index was 340 points, unchanged from yesterday, 66.00% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 1000 points (2011-12-06), and 25.46% higher than the lowest point, 271 point, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 364500 yuan / ton, 2075000 yuan / ton, 650000 yuan / ton, respectively. In rare earth oxides, the average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 289500 yuan / ton; the price of dysprosium oxide is increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 1710000 yuan / ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 342500 yuan / ton; the average price of neodymium oxide is 291500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy is 364500 yuan / ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 1680000 yuan / ton.

The price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market continued to rise, the domestic supply policy of heavy rare earth market, the export of heavy rare earth improved, and the domestic price trend of heavy rare earth continued to rise. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price remains low. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of rare earth in the domestic market has increased.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that the recent domestic environmental protection scrutiny will not be reduced. In addition, the domestic export of rare earth industry will be well supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market is still expected to continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also have a rebound.