1、 Acrylic price trend:

The average price of acrylic acid as of January 8 was 8133.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of January 7, up 2.52% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the data in the business club’s large list. On August 8, the main quotation of acrylic acid in China was 7300-9300 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: acrylic acid market was stable on August 8. Acrylic acid market spot supply is limited, downstream just need to purchase, inquiry enthusiasm has improved, the overall market is stable. At present, the price of acrylic acid in Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. is temporarily stable, with 7600 yuan / ton of common acid and 8100 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed on a case by case basis. The price of acrylic acid in Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, the price of acrylic acid is 7800 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the market of propylene in Shandong continued to rise on August 8. Influenced by international crude oil, domestic propylene price rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. On January 5 and 6, it was generally stable, and on January 7, it began to rise again. Today, the enterprise price is still slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is about 6950-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6950 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid business club believe that in the near future, the price of raw propylene has been rising continuously, and the cost support has been strengthened. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable and positive in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream and mainstream market conditions.

On January 6, the rare earth index was 338, down 1 point from yesterday, 66.20% from the highest point in the cycle, 1000 (2011-12-06), and 24.72% higher than the lowest point, 271, on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium is 367000 yuan / ton, 2125000 yuan / ton and 650000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide are 280000 yuan / ton, 1715000 yuan / ton, 332500 yuan / ton and 291000 yuan / ton respectively. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 359000 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1685000 yuan / ton.

The price trend of heavy and rare earth in the rare earth market has declined. The domestic supply policy of heavy and rare earth market, the export of heavy and rare earth are normal. Myanmar unilaterally closed the customs clearance port, the domestic supply has decreased, and the domestic price trend of heavy and rare earth has declined slightly. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has not changed much in the near future, the market trend of PR nd series products is general, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is general in the near future, and the market price is slightly lower. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controls the sales, but the downstream demand has not changed much in the near future, and the price trend of most rare earths is mainly stable.

Recently, Geng Shuang, spokesman of the Ministry of foreign affairs, said that China is the world’s largest country in rare earth reserves and production, and plays an important role in the global rare earth industry chain. China has been adhering to the principle of openness, coordination and sharing, promoting the development of domestic rare earth industry, and is willing to meet the legitimate needs of the development of all countries in the world with rare earth resources and products, so as to promote China’s economy and the world Economic development plays an active role. China’s rare earth production accounts for 73% of the world’s total, ranking first in the world and playing an important role in the game between big countries. Rare earth PR nd and Dy TB are mainly used in NdFeB magnetic steel. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources jointly issued a notice to release the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining and smelting separation and tungsten mining in 2019. The Ministry of industry and information technology of China announced that the total amount of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2019 was 132000 tons and 127000 tons respectively, while the quota of rare earth mining in 2018 was 120000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons, and the data in 2019 It’s the highest year since 2014. In addition, the Ministry of industry and information technology, together with relevant departments, drafted the development plan of new energy vehicle industry (2021-2035). After 15 years of continuous efforts, China’s core technology of new energy vehicles will reach the international leading level. By 2025, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales will reach about 25%. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, and China’s domestic demand is expected to further improve The price of heavy rare earth in the domestic rare earth market remained high.

Rare earth analysts of business news agency predict that the intensity of domestic environmental protection inspection will not be reduced in the near future. In addition, the domestic export market of rare earth industry has been supported, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a better way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will remain high, while the price of light rare earth will fluctuate mainly.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price slightly declined and quoted 48751.67 yuan / ton, down 0.43% from the previous day, up 4.12% year on year. Shanghai copper’s main market hit a high of 49010 yuan at the beginning of the day and then came back to 48760 yuan at the end of the day, down 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, copper price fluctuated in a narrow range. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, and the strong performance of the employment market stopped the decline of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the downward pressure of the global economy is large, and the demand outlook of the copper market is still worried. In addition, the recent recovery of copper inventory in Shanghai has put pressure on the copper price. However, the easing of international trade tensions and the reduction of the Central Bank of China’s reserve have also resulted in the tight supply of upstream copper mines, and the copper processing fee TC At a low level, the copper price formed part of the support.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business agency believe that the domestic production reduction has not yet been implemented, and the copper in the period is in a downward trend under the background of the lack of good news. However, there is a certain support for copper market fundamentals, copper prices continue to decline or limited space to maintain a narrow range of volatile trend.

1、 Price trend

According to a large number of data on the list of business agencies, this week coincides with new year’s day, before and after the festival, aniline factories cut prices to stimulate shipments. This Friday, the market price of aniline in Shandong Province was 6300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton, down 3.08% compared with 6500 yuan / ton last Friday; the market price of aniline in Nanjing region was 6700 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, down 1.47% compared with 6800 yuan / ton last Friday

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: the listing price of pure benzene on Friday is 5500-5950 yuan / ton, down 1.02% from last Friday. This week’s pure benzene port inventory picked up from last week. There is pressure on the delivery of Shandong local refining Co., Ltd. and the price has been lowered successively. With the increase of market arrivals, the expectation of merchants began to weaken and the market mentality was short. However, it is heard that Zhejiang Petrochemical has produced pure benzene, but it has not been sold to the outside world. It is reserved for trial run of styrene, which to some extent supports the price of pure benzene.

Product: the bidding price of raw materials fell, and the support of cost to aniline price weakened. In addition, around New Year’s day, aniline Market trading is light, aniline factory in order to stimulate shipments, reduce prices.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: the port inventory rose for two consecutive weeks, and the downstream profit level continued to be worrying, so the market mentality was weak. Near the end of the year, it is necessary to pay attention to the transportation problems in the later period and the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene on pure benzene. Pure benzene is expected to continue to weaken slightly next week.

Aniline fell twice this week and is expected to fall mainly in consumption in the short term, with prices slightly volatile. Pay attention to the trend of pure benzene in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

In December 2019, the butadiene market was weak and declined. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of butadiene at the beginning of the month was 8834 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 8312 yuan / ton, down 5.91% in the month, 15.50% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in December, the domestic butadiene market was weak. At the beginning of the month, affected by the sudden accident of TPC device in the United States, the suspension of export of northeast manufacturers, the short-term shutdown of Shenhua Ningmei and Nanjing Chengzhi device, the market experienced short-term speculation, but the downstream follow-up was limited. With the restart of export in the first ten days of December, the market continues to decline. In the last ten days of the month, the price of northeast goods is relatively low, which just needs to be followed up in succession to boost the downstream part, and the market situation shows some signs of stabilizing. However, at the end of the month, the new equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical was successfully put into trial operation, and the supply side was expected to be short, so the market continued to be weak.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s supply price of butadiene in East China continued to decrease by 400 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton; due to the increase of pipeline transportation, North Huajin butadiene was suspended for export in the second half of the month, with the base price of node bidding at 8310 yuan / ton as of the 16th day, down 600 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; Fushun Petrochemical’s base price of bidding at 7800 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton on a month on month basis basis; Inner Mongolia Jiutai’s listing price at 7600 yuan / ton as of the 30th day, on a month on month basis The price of coal butadiene in Shenhua Ningxia fell by 610 yuan / ton to 7140 yuan / ton on a month on month basis, and the 100000 ton / year oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Jiangsu Province was shut down for a short period from 16th to 26th. Nanjing Chengzhi butadiene plant was shut down for minor inspection from November 27 to December 3, and shut down from December 22 to 27; Puyang Bluestar 50000t / a butadiene plant was shut down from December 27 to 31, with a small amount of inventory for export; Zhejiang Petrochemical added 200000t / a butadiene plant to produce qualified butadiene products on December 30, and the formal operation of the plant in the later stage needs further attention.

Industrial chain: SBR: domestic SBR market rose first and then fell in December. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw material butadiene was adjusted at a high level, and the supply price also increased by a large margin. The cost side and the news side obviously boosted the confidence of the operators. Moreover, the volume of orders issued by the sales companies was still tight, the on-the-spot circulation was limited, the speculation atmosphere was gradually rising, the operators were reluctant to sell, and the market premium margin was constantly enlarged. However, the requirements for environmental protection in the north are still severe, and the start-up of some terminal plants is still not optimistic, and the annual close is near. Downstream enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the overall demand is weak. In addition, the following butadiene market is weak, both Tianjiao futures and spot stocks are falling, and the cost side and news side are turning to the guidance of the short side. Therefore, after the middle of the month, the styrene butadiene market is declining in a narrow range, and the market offer is gradually posted In the near ex factory price and falling price market, there is no lack of some profit taking companies to ship with the trend, and the overall trading is still in a stalemate; there are not many stocks at the end of the month, and the market price is stable near the supply price, and the demand has not changed significantly.

In December, the domestic br market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the supply price of Shunding has been pushed up one after another, and the short-term shutdown and maintenance of Maoming and Yanshan Shunding units have been carried out. In addition, the price of butadiene and benzene has been rising all the way after the restriction of butadiene and benzene, so Shunding market has increased the price one after another, and the range of price increase has been slightly enlarged. After entering the middle of the month, the price of raw materials gradually decreased, Shanghai Rubber shockwave finishing support was general, the domestic mainstream Shunding unit started to return to normal, the demand did not change, Shunding market price gradually weakened, and the early premium range also gradually narrowed. In the last ten days of the month, the start-up of tires was not as expected, and under the environmental protection situation, some other downstream factories showed signs of parking, etc., “do not buy down” mentality guidance, the demand side became weaker; the domestic butadiene price also fell step by step; after the bad news intensified, the price of Shunding became weaker, and continued to show signs of hanging upside down, and the low profit plate significantly dragged down the trading; the factory supply price of Shunding was in a favorable trend Lower, the market also fell after finishing mainly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in December 2019, there were 26 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which there were 8 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 9.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities were propane (27.23%), crude benzene (11.66%) and pure benzene (10.94%). There are a total of 50 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, and 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the top 3 falls are sulfur (-17.03%), lithium hydroxide (-13.50%) and hydrochloric acid (-12.64%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.87%.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, good news: the downstream synthetic rubber construction is OK, and the latex industry just needs to replenish before the Spring Festival holiday. On the negative side, there are plenty of imported ships arriving at the port, sufficient supply in the spot market, smooth commissioning of new production capacity, release of production in the later period, and the intention of northern export manufacturers to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival holiday. In the short term, the northern manufacturers have a relatively abundant supply of goods for export, and it is difficult to form an effective support for the downstream rigid demand. In addition, the domestic butadiene market is still under pressure due to the arrival of foreign ships. At the end of this month, Zhejiang Petrochemical plant was successfully commissioned, and it was reported that Dalian Hengli plant also had a commissioning plan in January. The supply of butadiene in the medium and long term will increase significantly, which will affect the expectation of some businesses. In January, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the intention of replenishment of downstream positions before the festival and the supplier’s “light inventory” exist at the same time. Under the pressure of supply, the butadiene analysts of the business agency expect that the domestic butadiene market will continue to explore the possibility of a slight decline in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the market supply and demand and the internal and external market information guidance.