1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, the spot nickel price this week shows a trend of first restraining and then rising. The weekend price is 102066.67 yuan / ton, up 0.49% from 101566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 3.71% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of this week, the main nickel market in Shanghai opened at 98960. After the price rose, it fell into shock. On Friday, it closed at 101720, up 1.77% in the week. Lennie closed at $12295 at Friday’s closing, up 2.93% on the week.

After the festival, the price of stainless steel rose actively in the downstream, and the nickel market also recovered the decline during the May Day holiday. Due to the recent rise of nickel, iron and nickel ore price, the increase of raw material cost, the increase of steel plant price, and the decline of stainless steel social inventory in April, the centralized release of demand, if stainless steel profits and production scheduling can be stable in the current position, or even with the continuous expansion of demand, it is a strong support for nickel products. LME nickel inventory was basically stable this week.

Since April, the price of ferronickel has risen significantly, from 872.5 yuan / nickel point in early April to 955 yuan / nickel point this week. The recovery of ferronickel price is the main support for the price rise of nickel ore. if ferronickel still maintains a large upside down state of early profits, some manufacturers continue to buy ore with weak production intention, and the possibility of price rise is small. According to the latest research results, nickel iron still decreased in April, but with the high price of iron holding steady in May and the ore end easing, the output will pick up.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: raw material price support plus active price increase of stainless steel plant, stainless steel price remains strong, and the downstream current acceptance is acceptable, and transaction is relatively active. Therefore, if stainless steel keeps a good market, its purchase and consumption of nickel will also be at an ideal level, which is relatively hard to be broken, so although the current macro environment is still difficult to support a sharp rise in price The price of nickel still tends to increase. It is predicted that the short-term fluctuation of nickel is relatively strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, as of April 30, based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, at present, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 5800 yuan / ton, which is 266 yuan / ton lower than the average market price of 6066 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1), or 4.40% lower.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in April, the butanone market fell as a whole. In early April, the market inquiry atmosphere was cold. Affected by international public health events, the market export restriction increased, foreign trade orders decreased, domestic downstream demand was low, the overall market demand was reduced, and the factory could not bear the inventory pressure. The factory lowered the factory price of butanone one one after another. On March 3, the factory reference price of butanone fell below 5900 yuan / ton The market of China butanone recovered briefly, and the overall quotation of the market was slightly increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. However, the downstream wait-and-see mentality is still strong, and there are few transactions in the market. In addition, the sharp drop in crude oil also depresses the mentality of the industry. Under the condition of reduced supply, it is difficult to stop the market decline. On the 20th, the domestic market fell again, falling all the way to the end of the month. As of the 30th, according to the data of the business association, the market was supervised The test shows that the average ex factory price of butanone is 5800 yuan / ton, which is about 300 yuan / ton lower than the market price at the beginning of the month, with an overall decrease of 4.4%.

Industrial chain: in April, liquefied gas rose first and then fell. The overall trend is still greatly affected by international crude oil. In the first half of the month, CP fell in the civil market of liquefied gas, but the decline was less than expected, which brought certain benefits to the market, and crude oil closed up. In addition, the demand for downstream storage and replenishment was relatively positive, the market atmosphere was good, the factory shipped smoothly, the inventory was ok, and the price was continuously increased. On the 12th, driven by the sharp rise of propane in Shandong Province, the price of liquefied gas rose sharply, only 15.21% on the 3rd. However, the upward trend lacked substantial benefits, and then ushered in a rational decline. In the second half of the month, the civil market of liquefied gas fell mainly, propane fell sharply, the liquefied gas market returned to rationality, and the price fell in a step-by-step manner. International crude oil suffered another setback on the 14th, and continued to decline sharply on the 20th. The news weighed on the market mentality, while the downstream mentality was cautious and wait-and-see. The manufacturer’s shipment is blocked continuously, the inventory is increasing gradually, and the successive profits are used to stimulate the shipment. On the 23rd, under the favorable rebound of international crude oil, the liquefied gas market pushed up slightly, but on the 27th, the global crude oil inventory remained high, the market was still worried that the reduction of production was not enough to offset the decline of demand, the international oil price fell sharply, and liquefied gas followed the decline.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis by the Data Engineer of the business agency, since 2020, the domestic market demand for butanone has been in a low state. In February and March, the export orders of the butanone market are relatively large. Although the export volume has increased, it has not been able to drive the domestic butanone market. The main reason is still related to the demand of the domestic downstream market. In April, the export orders decreased, and the market fell into a low state again. It is expected to be out in the short term Export orders may decrease again. If domestic demand fails to recover in time, it is expected that the butanone market will continue to be weak in the near future.

1、 Price trend

In April 2020, the domestic antimony ingot market fell at the end of the month, with the average price of 38125 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 37125 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 2.62%.

On April 30, the antimony commodity index was 51.68, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.49% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 10.00% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: the price of antimony trioxide in this month is lower along with the price of antimony ingot. As of the 30th, 99.5% is 33500 yuan / ton, and 99.8% is 35000 yuan / ton.

Domestic market: this month, the antimony ingot Market remained basically stable, and the price was lowered only once in the middle of the month. Due to the influence of foreign conditions, the domestic and foreign market demand remained weak throughout April, and domestic buyers and sellers were still waiting. In terms of price, as of the 30th, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots is RMB 35500 / T, 1 × antimony ingots is RMB 36000 / T, 0 × antimony ingots is RMB 37000 / T, and the average price of 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots is RMB 33000 / T.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 7 commodities in the price up and down list of bulk commodities in April 2020, including 7 commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 31.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase rate are aluminum (11.16%), copper (8.73%) and nickel (8.40%). There are 14 commodities with a decline of more than 5% month on month, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are silicon metal (- 5.10%), magnesium (- 4.61%) and cobalt (- 4.37%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.93%.

3、 Future prospects

Overseas situation is still serious, and there is no sign of improvement in export in a short time. It is expected to wait and see in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, pure benzene continued to decline at the beginning of the month, started the way of bottom reading rebound after the Qingming Festival, and returned to the decline in late April. On April 1, the price of pure benzene was 2550-2900 yuan / ton (average price: 2660 yuan / ton). On April 30, the price of pure benzene was 2700-3500 yuan / ton (average price: 3020 yuan / ton), 360 yuan / ton higher than that on April 1, with a monthly increase of 13.53%.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Crude oil: this month OPEC + Member States reached a joint production reduction agreement to support the oil market. However, crude oil inventory increased rapidly, while storage capacity decreased significantly, and WTI even fell to a negative value for the first time in history this month. Compared with March 31, Brent oil price in April was up $1.995/barrel, up 11.29%; WTI oil price in April was down $2.66/barrel, down 10.85%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 47.095 USD / barrel, or 79.54%; WTI oil price decreased by 38.92 USD / barrel, or 64.04%.

2. Product: the port inventory of pure benzene continued to accumulate this month, but the increase decreased. After this month’s Qingming Festival holiday, the pure benzene market was affected by crude oil and external market, bottom reading rebounded, and downstream purchasing was positive, with a rebound of more than 30%. The spot supply in Shandong is tight, and the price increase is more obvious. After two weeks of hoarding, the downstream procurement speed slowed down significantly. In the late ten days, crude oil plummeted and pure benzene began to decline.

3. Outside market: April crude oil market slightly recovered, driving the outside market up. South Korea’s imports of pure benzene rose 75 US dollars / ton, or 30.16%; East China’s imports of pure benzene rose 55 US dollars / ton, or 19.23%.

4. Downstream: styrene: on April 1, the price of styrene in Shandong was 4650 yuan / ton, and on April 30, the price was 5100 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 9.68%. In the early stage, stimulated by favorable crude oil and supply and demand, styrene prices rose driven by rising sentiment, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was good. In the later stage, the weak raw material surface and the restart of domestic styrene plant gradually increased, which made the situation of supply exceeding demand hard to change in a short time, and the price declined.

Aniline: on April 1, the price of aniline was 5633.33 yuan / ton, and on April 30, the price was 4800 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 14.79%. Affected by public health events, domestic market and export of aniline were blocked in April, the contradiction between supply and demand expanded, and the price fell. In the middle of the year, the raw material pure benzene rebounded sharply, and the aniline stock kept up with the rising power. The downstream factories entered the market to purchase and stock up, and the aniline enterprise stock pressure was released rapidly. In the last ten days, after more than a week’s stock up, the downstream procurement recovered to be light. In addition, the overhaul of aniline plant was restarted, and the market supply increased, so the price of aniline fell.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: many parties have jointly promoted the process of production reduction agreement, which has some effect, but in the short term, it can not offset the negative impact of the sharp contraction of demand, and the oil market can not get rid of the situation of excess supply and demand. Short term crude oil prices are expected to remain low.

2. Domestic and foreign markets: the production of downstream pure benzene enterprises in the short term is basically stable, the consumption is mainly in the early stage of hoarding, and the on-site trading atmosphere is light. Mainly wait for the later crude oil and the trend of the outer market.

Market participants are more bearish about the future, and it is expected that the short-term pure benzene market is still weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, on April 1, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4362.50 yuan / ton, and on April 28, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4325.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.86%. The current price was 1.98% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in April, the domestic potassium nitrate declined slightly, the domestic potassium chloride production of upstream raw materials was normal, the supply of goods in the Port Free Trade Zone continued to increase, the international price fell, and the overall trend or low consolidation of potassium chloride market was dominated. The potassium nitrate Market is not well supported. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the potassium carbonate market is tepid, the activity is low, the demand side is weak, the actual turnover of the market is insufficient, and the downstream procurement maintains rigid demand. At the same time, the plant operation rate of the manufacturer is low, the overall inventory is low, and the purchasing market momentum is general, and the domestic potassium carbonate market is falling. In April, the main domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers offered 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of potassium nitrate of business association, the price of domestic potash fertilizer market has continued to decline in the near future, but the range is not large, and it is expected that the market situation of potassium nitrate will be low in the short term.