1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on January 1 was 5350 yuan / ton, and on January 15 it was 5333.33 yuan / ton, which slightly decreased by 0.31% in half a month, up 23.55% compared with the same period last year. On January 14, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.58, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 9.60% from 128.96 (2019-07-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.90% from 91.15, the lowest point on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the phosphoric acid market is weak and stable in the near future. The price of raw materials is stable for the time being, and the phosphoric acid market is also stable. The stock up of downstream enterprises before the festival is basically completed, and a few enterprises replenish goods sporadically. At present, the phosphoric acid market is generally traded, and the enterprise is still in good condition. Near the end of the year, the logistics has been shut down in succession, the factory is off in advance, and the phosphoric acid market is temporarily stable. According to the monitoring of business association, as of January 15, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5333.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 4700-5700 yuan / ton. The enterprise adjusted the price according to itself.

Industry chain: the domestic phosphate ore market continues to maintain a weak finishing operation, and the price of phosphate ore is lower than that just in winter. Yellow phosphorus spot is tight, yellow phosphorus trading gradually decreases towards the end of the year, mainly stable. The phosphate market remained stable for the time being, with limited market start-up.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices on January 14, 2020, among which the top three commodities are acetone (4.08%), R22 (1.87%) and polyformaldehyde (1.86%). There are 14 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products are propane (- 2.50%), ammonium chloride (- 1.56%) and mixed xylene (- 1.22%). The average rise and fall of this day is 0.01%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the preparation of the downstream phosphoric acid before the festival is basically completed, and a small number of enterprises make up sporadically. Near the end of the year, the logistics has been shut down and the factory is about to have a holiday. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain weak and stable in the near future.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province on the 14th was 4566 yuan / ton, up 1.86% from last week.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is higher than the previous one. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4300 yuan / ton, which is higher than that of the last time. Market demand has improved.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol market, the domestic methanol market rose strongly last week. The average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week was 2097 yuan / ton, and 2207 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 5.24% in the week.

3、 Future forecast

The raw material methanol market is good, supporting the polyoxymethylene market. The polyoxymethylene analyst of the business club thinks that the festival demand will be boosted, and polyoxymethylene may be increased.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 2215.00 yuan / ton, down 8.47% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the January 10 potassium chloride commodity index at 70.32.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 2180 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 2250 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on January 2 was 3716.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on January 10 was 3240 yuan / ton, down 13.45% in the first ten days of January, up 45.39% compared with the same period last year. On January 10, the LNG commodity index was 79.86, down 0.82 points from yesterday, down 61.78% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 15.99% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 10, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 3250 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3220 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 3400 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3250 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is 2300 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd 3250 yuan / ton. Liquid prices rose and fell in all regions, and fell as a whole.

Market analysis: after entering January, the decline of liquefied natural gas has not stopped, all the way down, falling 13.45% in the first ten days of January. In recent days, there are rain and snow in many places in the north, and there is the intention of going down to the south. As a result, the road is not smooth, LNG shipment is blocked, the manufacturer’s inventory is on the high side, and the liquid price continues to fall. For a long time, it may face shutdown. At present, most of the lower reaches purchase nearby, and some areas have a rising market. However, the terminal acceptance capacity is limited, but in fact, the delivery is average. In the tide of large-scale price reduction, Henan region has been outstanding in recent days, with continuous increase and fair trading. The main reason is that the temperature drops suddenly, the demand increases, and the supply of foreign products decreases, which leads to the rise of liquid price in Henan against the trend. However, the overall supply and demand of the market is difficult to balance, and the market is still weak. At present, it is close to the annual pass. Factories and schools are off in advance, and gas consumption is reduced. Upstream liquid plants are eager to ship, and the price reduction in some areas is slightly large, or even the price is adjusted twice a day. In the demand side dominated market, the terminal demand directly affects the LNG price. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream production is gradually reduced or shut down, the demand is reduced, the wait-and-see mood of the industry is increased, and the LNG price may further decline.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 6 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are methanol (5.24%), fuel oil (3.70%) and dimethyl ether (2.05%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are LNG (- 6.45%), WTI (- 5.54%) and Brent (- 4.71%). This week’s average was – 0.69%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of the business association, the terminal demand is limited at present, and the northwest region and Inner Mongolia region have a large decline. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream production is gradually reduced or shut down, the demand has declined, and the wait-and-see mood of the operators has increased. It is expected that there will still be a reduction in the short term.

In recent years, China’s import volume of crude oil by sea has grown rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 10% in 2013-2018. During this period, with the promotion of diversified development of China’s import of crude oil, OPEC countries’ share in China’s import volume of crude oil by sea has declined. In any case, although OPEC’s crude oil exports have been under pressure in recent years, its share of China’s crude oil imports is stabilizing.

OPEC: important

China is an important driving force of global crude oil shipping trade. China’s import volume of crude oil shipping increased from 254 million tons (5.1 million barrels / day) in 2013 to 412 million tons (8.3 million barrels / day) in 2018, accounting for 20% of global crude oil shipping trade. The suppliers of China’s crude oil imports are widely distributed, but 75% of China’s crude oil imports in 2013 came from OPEC countries, which is higher than the proportion of OPEC in the global crude oil marine exports in the same year (64%).

Since 2013, China’s crude oil imports from OPEC and non OPEC countries have increased year by year (see chart this month). During 2013-2018, China’s total import of OPEC crude oil increased by 33%, while the export volume of OPEC countries increased by only 3% over the same period. Although the implementation of production reduction agreements since 2017 has limited the growth of OPEC crude oil exports, and supply of some countries has been interrupted due to the impact of sanctions, China’s crude oil imports from OPEC have continued to increase in recent years. This is mainly supported by the “oil for loan” agreement between China and Angola and the further cooperation between China and Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, more OPEC crude oil is shipped to China due to the decline of US crude oil imports.

Non OPEC: a rising star

However, since the annual compound growth rate of China’s crude oil imports from non OPEC countries reached 20% in 2013-2018 (compared with 6% in OPEC countries), the share of China’s crude oil imports from OPEC fell sharply in 2013-2017, only 62% in 2018, close to the global share of OPEC crude oil exports. Among the major non OPEC suppliers, Russia’s crude oil exports to China have increased significantly in recent years. Due to the growing demand for local refineries in China and the growing preference for Russian crude oil, Russia’s share of China’s crude oil import by sea increased from 2% in 2013 to 8% in 2018. Meanwhile, China imported 12% of its crude oil from Brazil and the UK in 2018 (only 2% in 2013). In 2017 and the first half of 2018, China’s imports of crude oil from the United States also increased (a total of 12 million tons of US crude oil were imported in 2018).

Stable?

However, the contraction of OPEC’s share of China’s crude oil imports seems to have slowed down in the near future, from 64% in 2017 to 62% in 2018, and relatively stable at 61% in January October 2019. This year, for the first time in the past six years, China’s imports of crude oil from OPEC countries exceeded those from non OPEC countries (despite a decline in imports from Iran and Venezuela). This is mainly due to the fact that after Saudi Aramco signed supply contracts with some private refineries in 2018, the crude oil imported from Saudi Arabia by China this year increased 62% to 64 million tons year on year. At the same time, the “trade war” between China and the United States has also led to the shift of China’s crude oil imports to some OPEC countries.

In short, in recent years, China’s crude oil import shows a diversified development trend, but OPEC’s share in China’s crude oil import is becoming stable. China is an important export destination of OPEC, but the preliminary agreement reached in the “trade war” between China and the United States recently and OPEC may further reduce production next year. The proportion of OPEC in China next year deserves close attention.