1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 566 yuan / ton on January 13 and 565 yuan / ton on January 21, with a price drop of 0.29%. So far, the ammonium sulphate commodity index on January 21 is 47.28, which is the same as yesterday, 55.51% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.00% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: near the Spring Festival, at present, the ammonium sulfate Market is light running, and the price fluctuation is not big. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-730 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-680 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the price of raw materials is stable, and the market is unchanged. Lower reaches compound fertilizer enterprise market weak reorganization. The holiday is coming and the demand for products is weakening. Some enterprises are overhauled during the Spring Festival.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 20 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the second week of 2020 (1.13-1.17) in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the chemical industry sector, the top three commodities rising are acetone (4.08%), acetic acid (3.92%) and dichloromethane (3.63%). There are 24 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are glycol (- 5.93%), propane (- 5.26%), and ammonium chloride (- 3.91%). This week’s average was – 0.08%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association think that the market trend of ammonium sulphate before the festival is weak and the transaction is limited. Coking grade ammonium sulphate is in weak shock operation, and domestic grade ammonium sulphate is mainly transported in port. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China this weekend was 503.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the average ex factory price of 503.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 64.88% from last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur market was in weak and stable operation, the port inventory was high, there was a lack of information guidance in the field, the downstream construction was low, and the main thing was to wait and see, and the price was in shock and consolidation operation. At present, the supply and demand of sulfur market is weak. Due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the downstream demand is in a low state, and the delivery performance of refineries in various regions is poor. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the festival atmosphere is strong, and the market is mainly stable. Refineries in various regions adjust their quotation according to their own delivery situation in the week, including the quotation of solid and liquid sulfur in East China is stable, and the price of liquid sulfur in Shandong is reduced by 30 yuan / ton Meanwhile, the price of solid and liquid sulfur in refineries in North China was reduced by 30 yuan / ton at the same time.

Industry chain: the downstream sulfuric acid market is light in terms of investment, and the Spring Festival holiday is approaching. Although there are downstream enterprises preparing goods before the festival, the overall market is still weak in terms of supply and demand, with limited support. The domestic market is operating in a differentiated way, with local market ups and downs showing each other. The acid companies also maintain stable shipments, keep inventories at a reasonable level, and have no obvious intention of price adjustment. Some of the main acid plants in Shandong continue to raise their acid prices, while others remain on the sidelines. Due to the weather, there are certain limitations in transportation. In addition, with the Festival approaching, acid companies dare not adjust their prices rashly, and the market is mostly stuck. Considering the impact of environmental protection and weather, there will be no obvious change before the year, and the later period will be acid market or weak finishing.

3、 Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of the business club, at present, the market demand is low, the port inventory is still high, the mainstream factories are well stocked, the market lacks the guidance of substantive information, the attitude of the operators is different, and the market is expected to run stably, depending on the situation of the factories in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP market in mid January was stable and declined, with some brands down. As of January 19, the main offer price of T30S by domestic producers and traders was about 7516.67 yuan / ton, down 1.53% from the beginning of the week.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream: according to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) has been generally stable this week. Influenced by the international crude oil, the domestic propylene price has rebounded from the bottom at the end of December, rising continuously. At present, the market turnover is about 6850-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7150-7200 yuan / ton. Recently, some domestic and foreign dehydrogenation units have been shut down to reduce the load, and the supply is still tight. On the upstream side, the recent international crude oil price is unstable, with a significant decline, but recently the crude oil price has picked up slightly, which has a certain impact on the propylene market. In general, the crude oil market has a limited range of changes, and the downstream operating rate has also declined slightly. However, the shutdown situation of the unit is still the same, and the supply is still tight, so it is expected that the propylene market will be relatively cold in recent days, and the price will be mainly stable.

Product: this week’s high propylene market slightly callback, the cost side of PP support is OK. Near the Spring Festival, domestic petrochemical plants are actively reducing inventory and the price has been reduced. Two oil inventory low, market demand with the completion of pre Festival replenishment and began to weaken. The quotation of the merchants is loose, some of them have started to pre sell the goods after the festival, and the downstream is preparing to stop work for holidays, and the terminal delivery is light. The market performance is calmer and there is a phase of contradiction between supply and demand before the festival. This week, PP weak consolidation, spot prices have decreased.

3、 Future forecast

PP analyst of business club thinks: PP analyst of business club thinks: domestic PP spot market presents weak consolidation market in January. The upstream propylene market is acceptable, which has certain support for the cost side. The stock up of downstream plants before the festival is basically over, and petrochemical plants actively reduce inventory and price before the festival. The company sells or starts to pre sell at a profit. The quotation is loose and the profit is transferred. It is expected that PP market will enter a stable stage before the festival in the near future. It is suggested to pay close attention to the change of propylene market at the cost end in the near future.

1、 Overall trend

On January 17, the LLDPE commodity index was 70.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.12% from 117.56 (2013-12-11), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.69% from 69.91, the lowest point on September 8, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On January 17, LDPE commodity index was 62.74, up 0.19 points from yesterday, down 44.64% from 113.33 (2013-12-08), and up 0.63% from 62.35, the lowest point on January 12, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

On January 17, the HDPE commodity index was 63.36, the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 38.08% lower than the highest point of 102.33 on July 24, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week (1.13-1.17) the ex factory price of polyethylene showed a narrow adjustment, in which the average price of LDPE 2426h in East China monitored by the business agency was about 8062.5 yuan / ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 7816.67 yuan / ton; the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7350 yuan / ton. As of January 17, the prices of LLDPE and HDPE in East China showed a stable trend this week, while the prices of LDPE showed a stable upward trend this week. Although the ex factory price of petrochemicals has not changed significantly, the overall market price of PE has fluctuated and increased, with most of the price increases ranging from 50-200 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the linear futures rose in shock, which boosted the market mentality, and the price of merchants’ offer moved up. But Tuesday’s continuous decline in futures, to a certain extent, depressed the enthusiasm of the downstream market, coupled with the weak trend of international crude oil, merchants offered profits. The Spring Festival holiday is coming. Downstream factories are going to have holidays one after another. Terminal demand is weak, and the overall market trading atmosphere is weak.

Import and export: the total import volume of PE in November 2019 is 1456300 tons. Among them, the import volume of LLDPE is 451900 tons, HDPE is 708600 tons and LDPE is 295800 tons. The total export volume of PE in November 2019 is 25900 tons. Among them, LDPE export volume is 7300 tons, HDPE export volume is 15300 tons and LLDPE export volume is 3300 tons.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the Spring Festival holiday is coming, the downstream factories are going into the holiday state, the demand will gradually reduce, the shipping of merchants will be blocked, and the market atmosphere will continue to wait and see. Petrochemical stocks fell to a low level and supply side pressure weakened. It is expected that the future market will continue to be weak in the short term, with narrow adjustment as the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, on January 16,PET water bottle manufacturers quoted 6800.00 yuan / ton, and the pet market fluctuated in a narrow range this week.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: polyester bottle Market in East China narrow finishing. At present, the offer of mainstream manufacturers is around 6700-6800 yuan / ton, and the market spot mainstream negotiation is around 6500-6650 yuan / ton. Zhejiang wankai’s latest offer is 6800 yuan / ton, China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / ton, Anyang polyester material factory 6800 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: polyester raw materials PTA Market narrow range finishing, general cost support, bottle chip manufacturers offer temporary stability, market negotiation focus is low-end. Downstream cautious wait-and-see, market trading light.

Industry: on January 15, PET commodity index was 51.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.72% from 103.76 (2011-09-22), the highest point in the cycle, and up 7.10% from 47.74, the lowest point on January 25, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
3、 Future forecast

PET analysts believe that: in the short term, the focus of negotiation is low, and the main thing is to watch carefully.