1、 Trend analysis

On May 18, spot copper was 43296.67 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day and 11.7% from the beginning of the year, down 9.64% year on year. LME copper 3-month contracts rose 1.20% to $5247.5. Shanghai copper’s main contract soared to 43270 yuan, or 0.32%, in the morning.

2、 Market analysis

Due to the improvement of domestic industrial data, the market’s optimistic sentiment picked up slightly, copper futures rose slightly, but spot copper prices slightly recovered. Basically, the supply of copper goods is limited, and the downstream keeps rigid demand. Most transactions are mainly received by traders, with general activity. Peru gradually recovers its economy. Large mines take the lead in resuming construction. The speed of port collection and shipment is accelerated. The tight supply pattern of overseas mine ends is eased. Copper mine delivery is gradually recovered. However, port transportation and shipment still need to queue up. The short-term supply of copper concentrate remains tight. Domestic end consumption is improving. However, the global economy is declining, the epidemic situation is likely to be repeated, and there is pressure above copper price 。 However, the price of refined copper and waste gradually returned to normal, and the substitution effect of refined copper weakened.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of the business society think that: supply is tight to support copper price, domestic demand has improved, but affected by the global economy, the sharp rise of copper price is restricted, and copper price is expected to maintain the trend of strong shocks in the short term.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

Mannheim potassium sulfate: About 2650% powder; about 2750% granules and 52% water-soluble powder. Report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 51-52% powder 3100-3150; Qinghai 50% powder 2250-2380. The price of potassium sulphate in Southwest China has slowed down, but it is still at the top of the domestic market. The ex factory price of 52% water-soluble powder is about 2900 yuan / ton, while the external price is still over 3000 yuan / ton. The price of potassium sulphate in Northwest China is also slowing down, and the ex factory price of 50% powder is about 2450 yuan / ton. SDIC’s potash plant has entered the maintenance period in summer, and the current inventory can maintain normal supply and shipment. Some manufacturers of potassium sulfate in Qinghai water salt system said that they would adjust it after the new price of potash was determined. Some manufacturers have reduced the arrival price of 50% powder to 2250 yuan / ton, and temporarily expanded the scope of customers.

3、 Future forecast

The seasonal demand for potash fertilizer is low, there is still surplus in stock, and the price is relatively stable in the short term. With the overall low price of potassium chloride Market in the later period tending to be stable, potassium sulfate may be affected to some extent, the price will also be lowered, and the pressure of water salt potassium sulfate will gradually increase in the later period. Potassium sulphate analyst of business association thinks: potassium sulphate is in a stable position in the short term, and the later stage mainly depends on the trend of potassium chloride.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the market trend of PA6 in the first ten days of May was positive, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of May 14, the main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about 11366.67 yuan / ton, up 9.65% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of caprolactam upstream of PA6, caprolactam market rose due to tight spot supply. The average ex factory price of caprolactam liquid in China on May 14 was 9833 yuan / ton, up 8.46% a week, according to the data in the bulk list of business associations. Boosted by the rise of crude oil and foreign market, the focus of domestic pure benzene market is stronger. Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene and the price of pure benzene rose steadily. At present, the supply of caprolactam in China is tight, there are few spot products, and the enterprises are actively pricing up. In addition, the price of caprolactam continues to rise due to the rising price of raw materials. As part of the enterprise equipment is about to restart, the supply side will ease, and it is expected that the caprolactam market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts think: PA6 market in China rose strongly in early May, and the spot prices of various brands rose. The supply of upstream caprolactam is reduced, and PA6 cost end is strongly supported. Downstream demand is still weak, PA6 consumption speed improvement is limited, and actual transaction is not good. PA6 market is expected to adjust in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid in China on May 13 was 5200 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from last Wednesday (6 days), and 11.83% from the same period last year, according to the bulk data list of business agency. On May 12, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 111.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 22.30% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: in May, domestic demand basically recovered, phosphoric acid shipments were in good condition, downstream inquiries increased, and the support of raw material end yellow phosphorus was acceptable, so the trend of phosphoric acid market became stronger. At present, in the peak season of chemical fertilizer, most phosphoric acid manufacturers in some areas produce and use their own products. They are reluctant to sell. As a result, local sources of goods in the field are tight, and the offer is up. On May 22, the two sessions in Beijing, some regions may have plans to suspend production, which will boost the market atmosphere. On the whole, the phosphoric acid market is stable and moving slightly, and the willingness of the buyer to push up is enhanced, and the trend of phosphoric acid is stronger. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of May 13, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan is about 5000 yuan / ton – 5300 yuan / ton, that of Guangxi is about 5150 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan is about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing is about 5100 yuan / ton, and that of Hubei is about 5000 yuan / ton – 5400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: Recently, the phosphate ore market is still stable, and the overall market is weak. The trading atmosphere is general, so it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will still be in the main consolidation and operation in the short term. Since May, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been temporarily stable, and the quotation range of the market is relatively small, among which the enterprises with short supply of goods have a slight trend of strong price, but the overall turnover of the market is not many new orders, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and the traders mainly wait and see. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are 16 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on May 12, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are caprolactam (9.19%), acetone (3.85%) and ethylene oxide (3.17%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were propane (- 2.95%), hydrofluoric acid (- 2.53%) and chlorinated paraffin (- 2.05%). The average price of this day is 0.27%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the business, social and chemical branch, the cost end support of the phosphoric acid market is acceptable at present, the delivery pressure of manufacturers is reduced, the supply of goods in some regions is tight, the willingness of merchants to push up is enhanced, and other regions are still on the lookout. It is expected that the trend of the phosphoric acid market will be stable and small in the short term, with consolidation as the main trend.

On May 11, the PX commodity index was 32.00, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 68.75% lower than the highest point of 102.40 on February 28, 2013. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 till now)

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable In about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On May 8, the closing price of PX market in Asia fell by 2 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 470-472 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 490-492 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 40% of PX needs to be imported in China. Recently, affected by the rise of crude oil price, the external price trend of PX fluctuated, and the price trend of PX market was temporarily stable.

As of August 8, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was 26.17 yuan / barrel, up $1.34. Brent crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was $30.97/barrel, up $1.51. The daily output of oil and gas condensate in Russia fell to 9.5 million barrels in the first five days of May, the first time since August 2009 to fall below 10 million barrels. Although the latest data shows that the daily output of Russian natural gas, including natural gas condensate, is only 1.296 million tons, it only lasted for a few days, This shows that Russia is fulfilling its commitment to reduce production under a global agreement. The rise of crude oil price has certain cost support for downstream petrochemical products, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price trend of domestic PTA spot market is volatile. As of May 11, the market average price is 3400-3500 yuan / ton, and PTA price slightly increased. On the premise of overseas resumption of work and crude oil production reduction, oil price is supported, but the short-term excess pressure of crude oil is hard to ease, and there is still pressure for oil price rebound; under the support of device maintenance and demand, domestic PX supply and demand margin is improved, but under the high storage pressure, the price is still suppressed, and the overall cost end support is limited. In terms of supply and demand, there is no sign of improvement for the terminal. In May, the pressure of polyester stock accumulation is large, and the contradiction between PTA supply and demand is still prominent. The expectation of stock accumulation is maintained, and the processing fee is expected to be reduced. Overall, in May, it was still suppressed by “three highs” (high startup, high inventory and high profit), and the price center fluctuated with crude oil, while the domestic p-xylene price trend was temporarily stable.

In the near future, the crude oil price trend is rising, the downstream PTA market price is slightly higher, and the downstream demand of the terminal is not significantly improved. The business analysts believe that the PX market price may or will be stable temporarily.