1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is picking up slowly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 1985 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 2022 yuan / ton, up 1.89% in the week, and the price fell 9.81% on a month on month basis, down 12.29% on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the trading atmosphere of domestic methanol market has changed, and there is a significant volume of transactions. This week, the mainland market as a whole showed a trend of stability first and then growth, mostly around 50-100 yuan / ton; the trend of the port was more volatile, and Taicang, Fujian and other places rose 10-30 yuan / ton. The methanol to olefin unit in Northwest China started to be upgraded, and phase II of Jiutai in Inner Mongolia and Baofeng in Ningxia recovered to full capacity production. The polypropylene brand is the raw material for mask production. The inventory of two major ports in East China and South China continued to increase, with a total social inventory of 930200 tons, an increase of 14100 tons compared with last week.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in a downturn. A small number of enterprises have resumed construction, many enterprises have construction plans, the upstream methanol market is in low-level operation, formaldehyde enterprises have small order replenishment actions, the downstream enterprises are still in low-level operation, the demand side is difficult to improve, and the overall transaction is light and hard to change.

Acetic acid: the domestic acetic acid market fell this week. After entering the middle of February, the restrictions on automobile transportation between regions were reduced, and the purchase of acetic acid in the downstream was no longer restricted by regions, resulting in the market transactions concentrated on low-end purchase. The northwest supply has successively impacted the North China market, resulting in the forced reduction of the local high price of North China by 100 yuan / ton. Suppliers from Shandong and Henan competed in the East China market. This week, the cumulative reduction of 100 yuan / ton increased the market bearish mentality. However, the overall start-up of downstream industries is still low, and the substantial demand for acetic acid is difficult to grow, and the buying is mainly rational under the trend of acetic acid bearish. Although the acetic acid market has made profits, the volume is still low.

Dimethyl ether: the overall trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether Market is weak this week, and the price shows signs of decline. The overall operation of dimethyl ether in China was about 7.03%, an increase of 6.19% over last week. Due to the current transportation still not recovered, the inventory removal of dimethyl ether continues to be slow, and with the current recovery of enterprise construction, but under the influence of continuous poor traffic, the digestion of dimethyl ether is slow, and the price rise resistance is still large.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the traditional downstream gradually recovers; the international device maintenance is centralized, and the import volume is expected to keep decreasing from February to March; the start-up of Northwest MTO device is improved, and the purchase volume of Inner Mongolia Jiutai and Ningxia Baofeng is increased. On the negative side, the situation of coal shortage in Northwest China has eased, and some units have been started up, such as Xinao and Rongxin in Inner Mongolia; the overall inventory of methanol plants in the mainland is on the high side; the port MTO units have been started down, Ningbo Fude has stopped, and Nanjing Chengzhi has a maintenance plan behind it. Downstream demand shows an increasing trend, dangerous chemical vehicles are gradually on the road, the market transaction activity obviously indicates that the volume and price will rise in some parts, but considering the high inventory in the mainland and the port, the space for the rise is limited. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market will show a strong trend of shocks next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the current offer of mainstream manufacturers is around 6300-6400 yuan / ton, and the market spot mainstream negotiation is around 6150-6300 yuan / ton.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of products: polyester enterprises have resumed production in succession, but can not resume normal production in a short period of time, and the demand is weak. The futures orders of ester bottle chip manufacturers are sufficient. After the logistics and transportation are improved, the inventory will be eased to a certain extent. The polyester bottle chip market in East China will be sorted out in a narrow range. At present, the main manufacturers offer around 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and the main market talks about 6150-6300 yuan / ton. Zhejiang wankai’s latest offer is 6225 yuan / ton, China Resources chemical Holding Co., Ltd. 6225 yuan / ton, Anyang polyester material factory 6225 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: polyester bottle chip downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory during the festival. Due to the impact of public health emergencies, PTA of raw materials fell and stopped at the beginning of opening, and a few bottle factories resumed to offer prices, which fell 200-300 yuan / ton compared with the price before the festival, with the quotation range of 6250-6400 yuan / ton. After the festival, the bottle chip factory returned to normal quotation on February 10, but most of them work at home and some work normally. However, the company has internal personnel quota requirements, which fails to meet the requirements of all employees.

Supply side: polyester bottle chip manufacturers started narrow decline. The main reason is that the shipment is not smooth during the holiday, and the bottle chip inventory of the manufacturer is increasing day by day. Under inventory pressure, the increase of inventory can only be controlled by reducing production and reducing load. Among them, the construction of Sanfangxiang is reduced to about 60%; Changzhou China Resources plant is reduced to 70%; Yizheng Chemical fiber 250000 ton plant is shut down and 200000 ton plant is started to 50%; Anyang Chemical is adjusted to 50%; Shanghai Yuanfang textile is started to 70%; Jiangsu Baosheng is adjusted to 50%; a 1.2 million ton bottle chip plant in East China is planned to restart on February 20, and relevant procedures for resumption of production are being handled at present. As of February 17, the operating rate of polyester bottle chip industry fell to 63.24%.

3、 Future forecast

Pet analysts of the business club believe that: the short-term bottle chip manufacturers have a small probability of low-cost delivery, coupled with the support of the raw material end, the bottle chip market may be stable and warm.

1、 Price trend

Recent domestic butadiene market continued to decline. As of February 18, the price of butadiene was 6482 yuan / ton, down 19.82% month on month and 32.52% year-on-year, according to the monitoring of business club.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic butadiene market maintains low-end finishing, and the prices of some factories keep falling. The downstream latex industry is slow to return to work, and the logistics in East China is still not smooth, and the market turnover is cold. In Shandong Province, the price of offers sent to the market is about 6100-6200 yuan / ton, while in East China, the market has declined slightly. The price reference is 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and the actual market orders are few, and the merchants are waiting for the downstream demand to recover.

In terms of market, the butadiene market in East China is dominated by wait-and-see, while the market in the North shows some signs of stabilization. However, the inventory in East China tank farm is high, the downstream construction and logistics recovery are slow, and under the pressure of the supply side, the mentality of the merchants is still weak. The market delivery price is maintained at 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and the zero star price is slightly low or slightly high. The actual single negotiation is dominated. The butadiene market in Shandong Province was slightly consolidated, and the market fell to a low level to stimulate the demand for inquiry. The offer from the middlemen was relatively firm. The low-end price slightly increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton, and the offer was 6150-6300 yuan / ton when it was delivered to the middlemen for negotiation.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the domestic mainstream styrene butadiene market reported a decline. The main price of Qilu 1502e in North China is around 10000 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu 1502e in East China is around 10400 yuan / ton.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China is still lower, the inquiry atmosphere is slightly improved, and the trading and investment maintain negotiation. As of the deadline, the main market price of Shunding in North China is 9800-10000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The short-term downstream terminal demand is difficult to follow up obviously, the manufacturer’s inventory is still high, the market supply and demand fundamental contradiction continues to have a negative impact on the market, and the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue to decline. The butadiene analysts of the business agency expect that the short-term domestic butadiene spot market will continue to be weak and downward in the short term, and it is suggested to pay attention to the latest price guidance of the supplier.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 10 was 11033 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on February 17 was 10633 yuan / ton, with the weekly price down 3.64%. So far, the caprolactam commodity index on February 17 is 53.48, down 0.17 points from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 46.52% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10000 yuan / ton, cash is delivered, the manufacturer’s capacity is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 11600 yuan / ton, and the unit capacity is 400000 tons / year. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 11400 yuan / ton, and the capacity of the unit is 450000 tons / year, which will be delivered upon acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 11400 yuan / ton, and the capacity of the unit is 300000 tons / year, which will be delivered upon acceptance. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid price 11500 yuan / ton, contract order, unit capacity 280000 tons / year.

Industrial chain: pure benzene port inventory accumulation this week. The process of downstream resumption is slow. In addition, styrene plant reduces production and raw materials are released. At present, pure benzene is in the situation of weak supply and demand, and is still constrained by transportation. PA6 chip enterprises have a large inventory, and are now operating at a low level.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector. The top three commodities rising are dichloromethane (5.00%), polyaluminium chloride (3.54%) and propane (3.38%). There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 13.52%), propylene oxide (- 5.11%) and liquid ammonia (- 4.89%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the current demand for caprolactam is low, and the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude. Affected by the epidemic, some enterprises have not yet returned to work, and logistics and transportation are blocked. The price of caprolactam was lowered under many factors. It is expected that the caprolactam market will remain weak in the later period, and the price will drop slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business club, today’s comprehensive market price is 14300.00 yuan / ton, and the PC market is weak and stable. At present, it is difficult for the PC market to have a real deal.

2、 Cause analysis

Product: the basic information of domestic PC market did not fluctuate obviously, and the overall wait-and-see pattern continued. Due to the impact of public health events, the downstream demand of PC and the recovery time of logistics are still uncertain, and the market is basically priced. Due to the high raw materials and the prominent contradiction between supply and demand, and the absence of effective buyer participation, it is expected that the domestic PC market will continue to wait and see the cold operation today.

Industry chain: upstream bisphenol A: the market fluctuation of bisphenol A in East China was limited on Thursday, with reference to the negotiation of 10800-10900 yuan / ton. Although there are sporadic quotations in the market, there are few market inquiries at present. The quotations are at a high level, so it is difficult to make a deal. Most operators continue to wait and see.

Industry: on February 14, the rubber and plastic index was 642 points, down 1 point compared with yesterday, down 39.43% compared with 1060 points (2012-03-14), and up 11.46% compared with 576 points, the lowest point on December 21, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

PC analysts of the business club believe that: the market trend is stable, and the business owners keep a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by the new crown epidemic, the demand side is not performing well, and the transaction is hard to conceal.