According to statistics of business agency, as of June 9, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu Province reported 15800 yuan / ton, up 167 yuan / ton, up 1.07%, down 17.85% year on year; POY price of nylon was 13480 yuan / ton, up 580 yuan / ton, up 4.50%, down 19.47% year on year; FDY price of nylon was 16500 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton, up 1.54%, down 21.80% year on year.

Good news support, crude oil rose in a row. As of June 8, WTI crude oil was at US $38.19/barrel. At the OPEC + ministerial meeting in June, OPEC agreed to extend the 9.7 million B / d cut by one month until the end of July, when it reached a record high. In the week of June 7, the number of oil and gas drilling platforms in the United States decreased by 17 again, to 284, a total decrease of 691 compared with the same period last year, which is also the lowest record this year. Crude oil demand picked up significantly. The latest data shows that China’s crude oil import in May broke the historical record. China’s oil import in May increased by 15% compared with April, reaching 47.97 million tons.

Product price increase / decrease unit from June 1 to June 9

Cyclohexanone 5980 6020 40 yuan / ton

Caprolactam 9917 9983 66 yuan / ton

PA6 (medium viscosity: 2.75-2.85) 11567 12167 600 yuan / ton

Nylon FDY (40d / 12F) 16250 16500 250 yuan / ton

Nylon DTY (70D / 24F) 15633 15800 167 yuan / ton

Nylon POY (86d / 24F) 12900 13480 580 yuan / ton

 
The price of raw materials will be increased to different degrees. As of June 9, cyclohexanone rose by 40 yuan / ton, caprolactam by 66 yuan / ton and PA6 by 600 yuan / ton, up 5.18%. Last week, the starting load of cyclohexanone was relatively stable, and the pressure on the factory’s spot goods and inventory was not great, but the order receiving gradually slowed down, and the market may continue to consolidate smoothly. In May, the price of caprolactam rose 16.21% month on month due to the rising price of raw materials and tight supply. The price hike was highlighted in the first ten days of May, and from the last ten days to the beginning of June, the price fluctuated slightly. In the first ten days of June, PA6 continued to rise. First, the raw material caprolactam was put into a rising price operation, which had a strong support for PA6. Second, the increase of consumption demand for overseas plasticization was good for domestic enterprises. The export situation of PA6 was warmed up, and the demand of domestic polymerization and slicing plants was improved limited, but the transaction situation was general.

 
From PA6 nylon POY price trend chart, it can be seen that as of June 9, PA6 price continued to rise, nylon POY and PA6 trend are similar, the turning point is basically the same. In the near future, raw materials play a leading role in the trend of nylon filament. Throughout the industry, crude oil led the kids to recover. Moreover, the tight supply of caprolactam helped the fire of PA6. Cost plus, nylon filament into the rebound period. In addition, with the relaxation of some epidemic prevention and control in foreign countries and the restart of production, foreign consumption stimulus added firewood to the rising fire, and the rising momentum or continuation.

According to analysts of business club, crude oil keeps rising and has a continuous momentum. Nylon raw material market generally maintains a high level, with strong willingness to hold up the price. Nylon filament is also sold at a stable price. Some manufacturers say they may raise their prices in the near future, and expect the fluctuation and increase of nylon in the near future.

This week, the domestic ethanol market was mainly consolidated. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning and the end of the week was 5775 yuan / ton, up 3.36% month on month and 8.15% year on year.

This week, the domestic alcohol market was mainly consolidated. The alcohol market in East China is weak; the alcohol price in Shandong is down; the alcohol market in Henan is weak; the alcohol price in Northeast China is in order; the molasses alcohol market in Guangxi in South China is stable; the alcohol market in Guangdong is down; the market price in Anhui is slightly down; the alcohol market in Sichuan is stable; and the alcohol market in Yunnan is stable. P>

Logistics: the logistics price is stable this week. On Thursday this week, the freight of Heilongjiang Daqing Shandong Zibo was 280-310 yuan / ton (floating up and down), Anhui Nanchang 250 yuan / ton (floating up and down), Henan Sichuan 500 yuan / ton, Henan Guangdong 460-520 yuan / ton (floating up and down), Guangxi Qinzhou Guangdong Dongguan 220 yuan / ton (floating up and down).

In terms of raw materials, corn: the price of corn is generally stable. Southern feed enterprises mainly wait and see corn purchase mentality. Last year, the southern market was bearish. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the price increased rapidly. When the price was too high, they didn’t plan to build a large number of warehouses. For the mentality of riding the tiger, they mainly used it as they chose. At present, there are many corn purchases and sales in Jilin, the storage capacity level of feed enterprises in the north is not high, and the market demand for high-quality corn is high, but there are more new grains in Jilin at present.

Ethyl acetate: the domestic market of ethyl acetate is weak this week. In summer, the downstream terminal production and purchase are more cautious, the demand for ethyl acetate is reduced, and the purchase of small orders is the main reason, which leads to insufficient transaction in the ethyl acetate Market, stable production of mainstream manufacturers, passive accumulation of inventory quantity, passive price reduction and shipment, and driving the market transaction price down.

Large factories in Northeast China order delivery, inventory is not high, raw material corn price remains high, enterprise production pressure is large, in the short term, large factory price keeps stable under favorable factors, small factory shipping mentality has the possibility of weak consolidation. Business alcohol analysts expect short-term market stability or the possibility of a weak decline in some regions.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of potassium sulphate was stable, and Mannheim’s potassium sulphate was delivered: about 2600% powder; about 2550% powder; about 2650-2700% granules and 52% water-soluble powder. Report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: listing price of 51-52% powder 3100-3150 in Xinjiang; listing price of 50% powder 2250-2300 in Qinghai. The operation rate of Mannheim factory in Shandong Province rose to 70%, while that in Hebei Province remained at 70%. The supply of potassium sulfate in the Northwest market has increased, and there are long-term unproductive enterprises (preparing) to resume production. At present, the local price is still one of the low-end areas in China, with 51% of the powder price of 2450 yuan / ton, and only 2400 yuan / ton of the large order issued abroad; the market of Mannheim potassium sulfate in the southwest market is relatively good, with 52% of the total water-soluble powder price of 2800 yuan / ton or more, which is the highest in China. The upstream market of potassium chloride continued to decline. Due to the current low season of traditional potassium fertilizer, the downstream demand is not high. The operation rate of Mannheim plant remains at a high level, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, but the sales pressure continues to increase, and the price of by-product hydrochloric acid is optimistic, forming a certain support.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of potassium sulphate in the business association believe that the low price of potassium chloride makes the cost space still large, and it is expected that the price of potassium sulphate will continue to slow down.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on May 1 was 1962 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on May 31 was 1856 yuan / ton, with the price falling 5.39% in the month.

According to the data in the business club’s large list, on May 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2196 yuan / ton, on May 31, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2156 yuan / ton, and the price fell 1.75% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate: this month, the monoammonium phosphate market was weak, and the price was stable and fell. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1900-1950 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the total price of powdered ammonium is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and 60% of the total price of powdered ammonium is 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted about 1950 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1800-1900 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1950 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: this month, the market demand for diammonium phosphate is insufficient, and the market trend is slightly lower. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2150-2200 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2200-2350 yuan / ton. 64% of mainstream diammonium in Gansu Province is priced at 2250-2400 yuan / ton. The first station quotation of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang Province is about 2450 yuan / ton.

Upstream: the domestic sulfur market is stable and rising, and the port sulfur price is rising. However, there is not a large number of transactions in the market. The cargo holders in the port are not eager to ship, and the buyer also goes with the market. The quotation of domestic refineries is slightly adjusted. On May 31, the reference price of sulfur was 526.67, up 2.6% from May 1 (513.33). This month, the phosphorus ore market as a whole was weak, the market was weak, and the downstream support was insufficient. On May 31, the reference price of phosphate rock was 393.33, which was 3.28% lower than that on May 1 (406.67).

Downstream: the market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not clear, this month’s weak operation, the price fell slightly. Compound fertilizer enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw material ammonium phosphate, with reduced demand and increased equipment maintenance. The north and South are close to the end of fertilizer preparation. In the short term, due to insufficient demand, the market will continue to be weak.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 1 rising commodity, 4 falling commodity and 0 rising and falling commodity in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry. The main commodities that rose were phosphoric acid (1.96%); the main commodities that fell were yellow phosphorus (- 7.82%), monoammonium phosphate (- 5.39%) and phosphate rock (- 3.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 3.26%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that the raw material market of ammonium phosphate rose and fell in May, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is insufficient. Some orders of monoammonium phosphate are received in advance, and the inventory pressure is reduced. The domestic demand of DAP is reduced, the supply is reduced and the export competition is fierce. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will be weak and stable in the later period.

In May, the domestic market of cyclohexanone rose steadily. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 5320 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 5980 yuan / ton, up 12.41% in the month, down 30.74% compared with the same period last year.

The market of cyclohexanone rose steadily. From the perspective of cost, the market of pure benzene fluctuated in a narrow range, forming a stable support on the cost side. From the supply side, the start-up of cyclohexanone off the shelf unit was on the low side in the month, Chongqing Huafeng was restarted in early May, Shandong Haili off the shelf unit was not exported from the end of April to the middle of May, the off shelf sales of Luxi Chemical decreased, the Bank of China cyclohexanone unit in Jining was restarted at the end of May, the price of phenol cyclohexanone was hung upside down, the phenol cyclohexanone plant was shut down for maintenance under the influence of cost factors, and the off the shelf inventory pressure of the plant in May was not large. In the downstream caprolactam market, the spot supply is tight and the profit is good, and the chemical fiber orders are continuous in the month, forming a good support for the demand of cyclohexanone. On the whole, the supply and demand side is good in the month, and the market presents a stable and rising situation.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: this month, the price of pure benzene in China is on the rise. In the month, due to the heavy inventory pressure in the East China market, the spot price rose first and then fell, but the price in the far month was driven by crude oil, the price rose and the transaction was active.

Caprolactam: the market of caprolactam rose rapidly in the first ten days of May, on the one hand, it was strongly supported by the cost end. On the other hand, it received the support of tight supply. After May 1st, the restart time of Tianchen Yaolong was slightly delayed, the restart time of orchid science and technology innovation was delayed, and Jiangsu Haili device failed to restart in May. In addition, the early short-term failure and load reduction concentration of Cangzhou Xuyang, Shenma, sanning, petrochemicals, Juhua, Yangmei, Shandong Haili and other units, while the polymerization plant started actively, leading to the tight supply of caprolactam in the early stage, and the seller actively increased.

Adipic acid: in May, the price trend of adipic acid continued the weak trend of last month. The price was weak and the market was calm. According to the data of business agency, the price of adipic acid turned red in May, but the monthly decline was only 0.61%. The dealers’ quotation was mainly up and down, mostly fluctuating in the range of 100-200 yuan / ton. As of May 29, the mainstream quotation of adipic acid in East China was generally 6500-6800 yuan / ton.

*** There are 37 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, 16 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were R134a (- 15.67%), potassium chloride (- 15.14%) and propane (- 11.97%). This month, the average rise and fall was 3.66%.

In the future, the short-term cost support is relatively stable, the profit of making cyclohexanone from pure benzene is fair, the supply and demand of cyclohexanone is relatively balanced, the inventory pressure of the factory is not large, and the price difference near 3000 yuan / ton of cyclohexanone caprolactam, considering the cost factor, the downstream chemical fiber procurement enthusiasm or decrease, the cyclohexanone analyst of the business society predicted that the cross plate operation of cyclohexanone in a short time. There is still uncertainty in the long-term chemical fiber purchase demand, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the raw material price and chemical fiber demand.