1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic mainstream PVC on December 10 was 8512.5 yuan / ton, up 0.74% the previous day, 6.24% higher than the beginning of the month, 13.31% higher than the same period last year, and 20.49% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In December, the PVC market has been on an upward trend, with an increase of more than 6% and a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. The spot price has broken through the bottleneck of 8000 yuan / ton, and there is still upward expectation. The spot market is generally above 8500 yuan / ton, touching 9000 yuan / ton, and the basis is relatively large. On the 10th, the PVC market continued to rise, with enterprises increasing by 100-200 yuan / ton, with an increase range of 200-300 yuan within the week, and there was no low-cost supply in the market. This week, the market is in a good state of mind, and some enterprises are short of stock. At present, the shortage of supply has not been changed. The price of raw material calcium carbide has been pushed up. The favorable support of PVC continues. The spot price continues to rise, which drives the plate to strengthen. However, the downstream resistance is strong, and the acceptance of high price PVC is limited. In addition, the support of demand side is gradually weakened due to the influence of consumption off-season, so the space for upstream is limited.

In terms of spot goods, the mainstream quotation range of domestic pvc5 carbide is mostly around 8350-8750 yuan / ton. The main stream of pvc5 type carbide in East China is 8850-9000 yuan / ton, while that in Hebei is 8620-8720 yuan / ton. The price of Inner Mongolia is 8400-8500 yuan / ton, which is from 8880 to 9050 yuan / ton in Hangzhou, 8900-9100 yuan / ton in Changzhou and 8850-9000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou Prices continue to rise.

In recent days, PVC futures continued to rise. The main PVC futures contract 2101 opened at 7835 yuan / ton and closed at 8125 yuan / ton on September 9. Yesterday’s settlement price was 7885 yuan / ton, up 3.04%. The trading range was 7805-8145 yuan / ton, with 297094 transactions and 230609 positions.

Regional variety and technology December 10

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8900-9100 yuan / ton

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8850-9000 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide process 8620-8720 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 8880-9050 yuan / ton

Upstream crude oil, on December 9, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell slightly, and the main contract settlement price was at $45.52/barrel, down $0.08. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, with the settlement price of main contracts at $48.86/barrel, up $0.02. The oil price was slightly adjusted. The negative EIA inventory data and the oil well attack in Iraq were both positive and negative. The long short game led to a fall in oil prices after rising.

For ethylene, the price of ethylene in Asia has fluctuated slightly recently. As of the 9th, CFR quoted 965-975 US dollars / ton in Northeast Asia, down 5 dollars / ton, while CFR Southeast Asia quoted 895-905 dollars / ton, down 5 dollars / ton. The demand for ethylene market in Europe was good, with FD northwest Europe offering 927-942 USD / T, CIF northwest Europe quotation of 934-946 USD / T, down 1 USD / T. The US ethylene market was up, with FD US $683-694 / T, up US $33 / T, and the cost support was not strong. Data analysts from the business agency predicted that the external price of ethylene would fall mainly as follows.

Calcium carbide, early December, calcium carbide Market small fluctuations rise. The price of raw materials in the upstream rose slightly, which supported the price of calcium carbide better. The downstream PVC market rose sharply, and the downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. Later, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly in mid and early December.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business agency believe that the current shortage of supplies has not been changed, the price of raw materials calcium carbide has been pushed up, the good support of PVC continues, the spot price continues to rise, driving the plate to strengthen, the PVC market is relatively strong in the short term, there are still upward expectations, mainly high volatility.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, the nickel price fell slightly on the 9th, with the spot nickel price of 118400 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from the previous trading day, 4.1% higher than the beginning of the year, and 4.16% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

European stock markets rose, the US dollar index continued to rise slightly, and the overnight lunni trend remained stable, with a rise of 0.21%. The price of ferronickel is loose and sluggish. Large stainless steel plants have clinched several thousand tons of high nickel iron at 1045 yuan / nickel point, which is still unfavorable to ferronickel under the situation of increasing nickel iron reflux in Indonesia. However, with the increase of production reduction, the price reduction intention of ferronickel is also weakened. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is relatively strong. The port inventory shows a decline in inventory in the new period. The incoming materials will continue to decrease in the later period, but the domestic inquiry will decline. In the near future, the nickel inventory of LME continues to maintain above 240000 tons, while the domestic nickel inventory continues to drop to 19005 tons. The downstream stainless steel plant has significantly reduced the production of 300 Series in November, but the expected output change in December is limited. The theme of downstream new energy battery is highly concerned by the capital market, and the price of related nickel sulfate is relatively strong.

3、 Future prospects

After market forecast: the macro level is good, the downstream performance is strong, the decline of nickel ore inventory has support for nickel price, and nickel price is expected to be mainly strong in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. On December 7, the price was 942.50 US dollars / ton, and the average price of ethylene on 8 days was 941.50 US dollars / ton, down 0.11%. The current price is up 31.49% month on month, and the current price is 17.98% higher than last year.

In the near future, the overall market of ethylene in the external market shows a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell, with CFR Northeast Asia closing at $980-990 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia closing at $905-915 per ton as of the 7th. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 7th, FD northwest Europe closed at 926-941 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 937-948 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. has increased greatly. As of the 7th, the price is 633-645 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of December, the Eurasian ethylene market declined slightly. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market is general, the market atmosphere is cold and clear, and the market is slightly down.

International: on December 7, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was $46.26/barrel, down $0.62. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract settlement price to 49.25 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 0.54 dollars. International oil prices fell slightly on Monday, mainly due to a surge in the number of new cases and increased market tensions due to uncertainty in Sino US relations.

In the near future, the East China styrene market continues to be weak. Crude oil is weak in the short term, pure benzene and ethylene are strong in the short term, and the price is rising, and the cost of styrene is well supported. However, domestic plant restart increased and spot supply increased. The downstream production and sales are declining, the demand is weakening, and there is a long and short market confrontation game. Today, the East China styrene market price is in the shade of 7800-8150 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude oil, the number of new crown cases has increased sharply, and the southern part of California has adopted strict blockade measures, and the cost support is not strong. Therefore, the data analysts of business agency expect that the external price of ethylene will fall mainly as follows.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the business club, the domestic PA6 market remained at a high level in early December, and the rise and fall range of each brand was still small. As of December 7, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 12833.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.12% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, caprolactam prices continued to rise in early December. According to the data of the business club, the average offer price of caprolactam sample enterprises on December 7 was 10800 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.21% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. Crude benzene rose on the news of crude oil production reduction plan. At present, caprolactam operation rate is still not high, Shandong Haili, which has been shut down for maintenance in the early stage, has not been restarted. The end time of maintenance plan of orchid scientific innovation is not clear, and the pattern of tight supply remains unchanged. Downstream demand is fair, caprolactam is currently supported by the supply side, and it is expected that the market will rise in the near future.

The upstream caprolactam market is strong, there is support for the cost of PA6. At present, the market of PA6 is stable temporarily, and some brands of products follow the upstream. Due to a certain increase of PA6 in the early stage, it has been at a high level at present. Downstream factories are resistant to high price goods and replenishment operation is cautious. In terms of demand for PA6, there was still a weak situation in the demand for PA6. At the end of November, traders had a strong atmosphere of selling goods, which narrowed the rise of the price and dragged down the focus of quotation. The main advantage of the market is that the upstream caprolactam supply is tight, and PA6 polymerization plant is passively rising under the pressure of cost.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: in early October, the domestic PA6 market is mainly stable, and local prices have risen. The supply of caprolactam in the upper reaches remained low and continued to rise. PA6 cost side support is strong. Downstream factories just need to take delivery of goods, and have conflicts with high price goods, so they should be cautious in purchasing and trading. In the short term, the upstream supply is tight and the situation is difficult to change. The spot price of PA6 may follow the upstream.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fell first and then rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 57330 yuan / ton, down 0.28% from 57491.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 10.46% higher than that of the beginning of the week, and 21.73% higher than that of the beginning of the year. LME copper rose in March, closing at $7758, a weekly increase of 3.36%; Shanghai copper index surged to 57960 yuan at the beginning of the week, and closed at 57450 yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.37%. At the beginning of this week, the international copper index rose sharply to 51430 yuan, and then fluctuated to a wide range, closing at 51290 yuan, up 2.58% for the week. The recent copper price in the early period of rapid rise, there is a small correction in the near future.

After the risk of the US election weakened gradually, with the progress of the new crown vaccine and the optimistic expectation of overseas fiscal stimulus, the macro level continued to improve and the fundamentals performed well, and the copper price once climbed to a seven-year high. At the beginning of this week, the momentum of copper’s rapid rise was slightly insufficient, but the expectation that foreign countries continue to increase the loose price and hope for the new crown vaccine will support the high level of copper in the future. The trend of Luntong copper is stronger than that of domestic copper, and the rising trend of copper is not over. In the short term, the fundamentals of the copper market are relatively good. The inventory of the previous period has dropped to a six-year low, and the low inventory structure is difficult to reverse.

Copper prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, but the short-term trend is still weak.