In February, with the Spring Festival, the PE market changed its downward trend in previous years and set off a “fireworks” in Spring Festival. In February, the three kinds of PE spot rose from the beginning of the month to the end of the month. Although the fluctuation range of PE spot market before the festival was not obvious, it was mainly a small rise. After the festival, the PE spot market rose rapidly. With the full resumption of the market, futures joined hands with the spot market and started to rise immediately. Throughout February, there are many bright spots in PE market.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 7983.33 yuan / ton on February 1 and 9000.00 yuan / ton on February 28, with an increase of 12.73% during the period, up 14.16% compared with February 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10787.50 yuan / ton on February 1, and 12075.00 yuan / ton on February 28, with an increase of 11.94% during the period, up 8.54% from January 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8166.67 yuan / ton on February 1, and 9216.67 yuan / ton on February 28, with an increase of 12.86% over January 1.

PE market in February can be divided into two stages before and after the festival. Before the festival, the three major spot varieties rose steadily, and the ex factory prices were increased on the 1st of the month and the 7th before the holiday. In East China, LLDPE increased by 200 yuan / ton, HDPE increased by 250 yuan / ton, and LDPE increased by 150 yuan / ton. Due to the limited market favorable factors, the rise rate was not large. Before the festival, the rise of international crude oil and the obvious rise of futures brought good support to the market. Petrochemical enterprises slightly increase the ex factory price, the cost support is acceptable, the business mentality is good, and the tentative high report. On the demand side, near the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises have the intention to prepare goods before the festival, the enthusiasm to enter the market is good, the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong, and the three kinds of spot products are stable and upward.

With the end of the holiday, the rise of PE spot market after the festival has become the main tone, and the large petrochemical plants have continuously raised their ex factory quotations, with high prices coming out frequently. As of February 26, compared with before the festival, HDPE in East China has increased by about 700-950 yuan / ton; LLDPE in East China has increased by about 950 yuan / ton; LDPE has increased by about 1150 yuan / ton, and the three spot varieties have increased by more than 10% after the festival. First of all, international crude oil rose sharply during the Spring Festival holiday. Since February, WTI has increased by 18.14% and Brent has increased by 17.15%. The cost support of PE market is strong. Second, the futures market, after the festival on February 18, the one-day rise is a new high in recent years, but also to the spot market has brought obvious positive. Thirdly, some petrochemical enterprises in the United States stopped production. Affected by the extreme cold weather in the United States, the local refining and related chemical production units were operating, and the chemical production was paralyzed. The leading chemical production slowed down, and the delivery delay aggravated the shortage worry in the market. Many products in the plasticizing market soared. Under the multiple favorable conditions, the mentality of the manufacturers is firm. Petrochemical enterprises have increased their ex factory quotations by a large margin in succession. The cost of taking goods by traders has risen. The offer has followed the upward trend, and the firm offer has focused on a single discussion.

Upstream ethylene market, the rise of external ethylene market in February brought some support to PE market. In February, the ethylene market in Europe, America and Asia showed a rising trend. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene external market was active recently, and the market continued to rise, especially in the United States. As of the 22nd, the price was 1035-1047 US dollars / ton, with a gratifying rise.

In February, Liansu futures rose significantly, with a rise rate of 8.06% on February 18, and the one-day rise was the highest in recent years, bringing obvious support to the spot market. On February 26, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2105 was 8905, the highest price was 9000, the lowest price was 8720, the closing price was 8885, the former settlement price was 8875, the settlement price was 8860, up 10, or 0.11%, the trading volume was 588458, the position was 323330, and the daily increase was – 13613. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In February, the atmosphere of PE market is strong, especially after the festival. However, due to the incomplete construction of downstream plants, limited terminal demand and general enthusiasm for downstream market entry, the three PE spot markets have stabilized at the end of this month. In March, with the downstream enterprises starting work one after another and the arrival of the peak season of plastic film, the market demand is expected to be better. However, the inventory of petrochemical enterprises increased on a month on month basis, and a new unit was planned to be put into operation in March. PE market is expected to rise in March.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, we can see that PX price has been rising all the way since 2021. As of March 1, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene is 6700 yuan / ton, which is 42.55% higher than the price of 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 6.35%. The external price of PX has increased significantly. The domestic PX market is highly dependent on foreign market, and the higher external price has a certain positive impact on domestic price.

Since 2021, the supply of PX at home and abroad is slightly tight. The domestic PX operation rate is more than 60%. The 600000 ton plant of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably. The plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably. The plant of Pengzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates normally. The plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably. The plant of Jinling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably. The plant of Qingdao Lidong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates at full load. The plant of Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably About 50% of the units were started, and the domestic supply of p-xylene was general. However, there were many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price of p-xylene was affected and rose. Recently, the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the PX external price rose. As of the 26th, the closing prices in Asia were 864-866 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 882-884 US dollars / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia declined. As a whole, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia was less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia decreased, and the PX external closing price rose sharply, which was affected by the external price China’s paraxylene market rose sharply due to the impact of Georgia.

Recently, oil prices soared continuously, OPEC + and its allies (OPEC +) continued to spare no effort to limit production policy, and U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell for several weeks, which paved the way for the rise of oil prices. In addition, under the background of epidemic situation, vaccination is promoted, and economic recovery is expected to continue to heat up. Since the middle of February, the United States has been hit by an unprecedented snowstorm. Under the influence of extremely cold weather, the refinery units in Texas have been shut down. The rapid decline of production has gradually evolved into a short-term energy crisis, which has accelerated the pace of oil price rise. According to the monitoring, on February 26, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $61.50/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $64.42/barrel. The price trend of p-xylene rose sharply due to this influence.

In the near future, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream has risen sharply, and the domestic PTA spot market has gone up. As of the 1st PTA market, the average price is 4800-4850 yuan / ton, and the PTA price in 2021 will rise as high as 30.76.28%. PTA supply continues to be at a high level. Due to limited maintenance efforts, the operation rate of domestic PTA plant is about 85%. The end market returns to work in an orderly manner after the festival, making the return time earlier than the scheduled time. As of February 24, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas has increased to more than 48%. It is expected that the weaving industry will basically return to normal operation in early March. However, at this stage, raw materials are rising rapidly, which aggravates the market risk. Therefore, the downstream companies are cautious about the market and make more inquiries, but they are still hesitant to “place an order”, and the order has not improved significantly. The price rise of PTA in the downstream has a certain positive support for the price of PX market in the upstream, and the price trend of PX market is rising.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the current cost side still has some support, and the short-term crude oil price will remain high and volatile. In addition, most downstream enterprises still have expectations for the market in March, and most of them continue to be bullish. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

This week, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fell, from 192.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 172.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a sharp increase of 10.39%. Overall, hydrochloric acid market fell this week, with hydrochloric acid commodity index at 45.39 on February 26.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturers’ quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid market manufacturers’ quotation fell, the overall market is general. Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid quoted 60 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quoted 600 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid quoted 180 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid quoted 400 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 50 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was 80 yuan lower than the beginning of the week/ Tons.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream silica market is low, which has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid. The high market price of ammonium chloride had a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Hydrochloric acid market as a whole looks stable this week, hydrochloric acid shipment is still a big problem.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is general, while the market of silica and ammonium chloride in the downstream has their own ups and downs. Business community analysts believe that hydrochloric acid in the recent small shocks.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to business news agency data, on February 26, the average price of silver in the morning market was 5584.67 yuan / kg, down 2.30% from 5716.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (February 1), and up 0.62% from 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On February 26, the spot price of gold was 370.80 yuan / g, a decrease of 4.41% compared with the average price of 372.71 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (2.1), and a decrease of 5.58% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

Main reasons for precious metals’ correction in February

1. Soaring bond yields

The poor auction result of US Treasury bonds led the 10-year yield to jump to more than 1.6% on Thursday; the soaring bond yield reflected the improvement of US growth prospects and inflation expectations.

2. Lack of investment demand

After the investment peak in 2020, the price of precious metals will gradually weaken. With the continuous introduction of vaccines into the market, the expectation of economic recovery from the epidemic is strengthened, and the possibility of real interest rate rising is increasing.

The expected outflow of investment funds from gold ETF increased, and domestic gold ETF positions fell due to factors such as stronger exchange rate.

3. Closure of alternative assets

Other alternative assets spread investor demand for gold.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic industrial grade potassium nitrate was 4175.00 yuan / ton in February, which was stable. The current price was up 0.00% month on month, and the current price was down 4.02% year on year.

In February, the domestic potassium nitrate Market did not fluctuate much. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the exchange trading atmosphere was relatively cold. Most downstream factories took goods on demand, and the inventory was relatively sufficient. The rising power was insufficient. According to the statistics of the business society, the domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers quoted 4000-4300 yuan / ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation was different according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers was temporarily stable: on February 25, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2050 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2230 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable. The actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. In February, the transaction of potassium chloride market was fair, and the price was high, which could give some support to potassium nitrate.

In the near future, potassium chloride has a rising trend, some traders are reluctant to sell, the market supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the potassium nitrate Market will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).