Recently, the price of domestic refined oil has risen strongly, and the price of the oil in mid April has increased by a large margin. According to the data of business society, the price of 92 gas of No.21 is 7414.8 yuan / ton, and the price of the oil in mid April is up 6.47%; 0 × diesel oil price is 5800 yuan / ton, and the price of diesel oil rises 4.17% in mid April. The international crude oil price has boosted. In addition, the in-situ equipment maintenance increases, supply is tight, and the price of finished oil has risen strongly.

International oil: Yemen Husser armed forces claimed to attack Saudi oil refining facilities, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was tense again; The International Energy Agency (IEA) took the lead and published monthly report, adding a fire to the oil market. On the 14th, IEA raised its global oil demand forecast in 2021. The view is that there are signs that the global economic recovery is faster than previously expected, especially strong demand in the United States and China; The EIA released the U; In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also raised global oil demand expectations, and it is expected that oil demand will increase by 5.95 million barrels / day in 2021, up 70000 barrels / day from last month. The increase in demand has provided support for OPEC’s increase in production. Even if OPEC + gradually increases production by more than 2 million B / D in the next three months, oil inventories are expected to decline. International crude oil was supported by various favorable factors. Crude oil rose significantly in mid April. As of 20, the settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $62.67/barrel, and that of Brent crude oil futures market was $66.57/barrel.

Good supply and demand of refined oil: since April, after the maintenance of the atmospheric and vacuum unit in Kolida, the first unit overhaul of HSBC Petrochemical has not started, and the main refinery is the shutdown and maintenance of the whole plant of Dagang Petrochemical. The refinery operating rate has declined, and the supply side is in a tight trend. In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic temperature is suitable, and the radius of people’s travel has increased. In addition, the May 1st holiday is approaching, and there is a certain demand for stock and stock in the market. In terms of diesel oil, the demand for diesel oil in engineering infrastructure, logistics and transportation industries continued to pick up, and the demand for diesel oil terminals was strongly supported. Positive demand superimposed, domestic oil prices rose.

By the middle of April, the average starting load of atmospheric and vacuum unit of domestic main refineries is about 75%. The resumption of main refineries and maintenance refineries coexist in April-May, and the supply side may not change much.

Chenling, an analyst with refined oil at the business agency, believes that the closing price of international crude oil has not changed much. At present, the domestic crude oil change rate is at a positive low level, the demand for steam and diesel oil continues to be good, and there is a certain support in the market fundamentals. It is expected that the price of finished oil will still rise slightly in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of April 20, the average price of domestic power grade lithium iron phosphate was 50000.00 yuan / ton, increased by 5.26% compared with the same period last month, increased by 4.17% compared with the beginning of April, and the overall increase in April reached 2000 yuan / ton.

Increasing installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate

From 2015 to 2019, the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles in China will increase from more than 300000 to more than 1.2 million. In 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power battery in China will reach 41.8gwh, and the share of lithium iron phosphate in the power battery market will be between 40% and 50%. The sales volume of hot new energy vehicles will continue to increase. From 2021 to 2023, it will maintain a steady growth, and the heat will not be reduced, according to Cui Weifang, Secretary General of the passenger Federation According to Dongshu statistics, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles from July to September all hit a record high in the same period, and lithium iron phosphate is favored by more and more new energy vehicle enterprises.

Product specifications and quotation (ten thousand yuan / ton) date

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ power ﹣ 4.8-5.2 ﹣ April 20

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ energy storage ﹣ 4.2-4.6 ﹣ April 20

Lithium carbonate ﹣ industrial grade ﹣ 8.1-8.5 April 20

Lithium carbonate battery grade 8.8-9.2 April 20

Advantages of LiFePO4 battery

At a higher temperature, the ternary cathode materials begin to release oxygen and heat, which seriously affects the safety of the battery. The heat release temperature and degree of LiFePO4 are significantly better than those of ternary materials. With the maturity of research and development technology, LiFePO4 battery has the advantages of low cost, high safety and price compared with ternary materials. The heat of new energy vehicles continues to rise, The market share of LiFePO4 battery is expected to increase again as the industry competition intensifies and leading enterprises speed up production expansion.

The lithium carbonate in the upstream is rising steadily

From the second half of 2020 to March 2021, the market price of lithium carbonate continued to heat up. In April, the market price of lithium carbonate was slightly stable, slightly upward, with relatively small fluctuation. Most enterprises quoted basically the same price as the previous period, and the situation of short supply has been significantly improved. Lithium carbonate index: April 19 The lithium acetate commodity index was 221.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.28% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 124.94% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Business community LiFePO4 analysts believe that: in the short term, the price of LiFePO4 will maintain a stable trend and the supply and demand will be balanced. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

Trade name: SBR 1502

Latest price (April 19): 14066 yuan / ton

Analysis points: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic SBR price was 14066 yuan / ton on the 19th, down 1.00% from the previous day. Since April, styrene prices have rebounded slightly and butadiene prices have fallen sharply, and cost side has mainly affected the vacancy. According to the monitoring of business society, as of April 19, styrene price was 9283 yuan / ton, up 5.89% compared with the beginning of the month; butadiene price was 6696 yuan / T, down 9.69% from the beginning of the month. The increase of downstream stock is not obvious, inquiry is not positive, and the price of Tianjiao is lower, which leads to the decrease of the ex factory price and market price of SBR. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of April 19, the factory price of Jihua butylene 1502, a Northeast Sales Company of CNPC, was reported at 14000 yuan / ton.

Post market forecast: at present, the cost and demand of SBR are weak, and the low level of Tianjiao, it is expected that the SBR will continue to decline slightly in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the average price of tax included in the main domestic light potassium carbonate factory in this week was 6687.75 yuan / ton, and the current price rose 0.75% on a month basis, and the current price rose 5.73% year on year.

The market of domestic potassium carbonate has not fluctuated much recently, and it has remained stable. The market of potassium carbonate market is generally supplied by large traders, which are sold sparingly. The downstream market purchases on demand. The trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market is still acceptable and the market is basically unchanged. According to statistics of business agency: the main ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6550-6900 yuan / ton (quotation is for reference only), and different prices are offered according to the purchase situation.

Recently, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride is at a high level: on April 16, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The ex factory quotation is about 2350 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On April 16, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted about 2650 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. Recently, the market of potassium chloride is in high consolidation, the new goods of border trade arrive at shore slowly, and the cost is better, which can form a certain support for potassium carbonate.

The analysts of the business agency think that the supply of source in domestic potash market is relatively tight, and the arrival of new port sources is not sufficient. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will increase in the short term, and the long-term market will still need to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is mainly weak. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong market is about 467.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price is 460 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 1.6%, and a price drop of 13.21% compared with the same period last year. On April 15, the commodity index of caustic soda was 66.19, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 68.00% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 1.66% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market operation is dominant. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-490 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is tepid, the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates mainly in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 460-590 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is general, and the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future.

From the downstream of caustic soda to the end of demand, aluminum, paper and other industries adhere to the demand-based procurement, a strong wait-and-see attitude. The price of caustic soda lacks strong support, and the price of caustic soda is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 14th week of 2021 (4.5-4.9), the price of chlor alkali industry increased by 1 commodity, decreased by 2 commodities, and decreased by 0 commodity. The main commodities rising were PVC (1.49%); the main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 4.76%) and caustic soda (- 4.59%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 1.57%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the caustic soda enterprises are not warm in shipment, and the downstream receiving situation is weak and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the follow-up operation of caustic soda will mainly fluctuate slightly, depending on the downstream market demand.