Trade name: yellow phosphorus

The latest price on April 21: 37166.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic yellow phosphorus market was basically stable on April 21. The overall market trading situation is acceptable. The May Day holiday is approaching, there are many downstream inquiries, and an appropriate amount of goods are prepared, mainly just in need.

Forecast: the price of yellow phosphorus is relatively strong in the short term.

Ethylene oxide remained stable throughout the week, with the ex factory price of 8200 yuan / ton in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China and 8400 yuan / ton in Central China.

Although ethylene has a downward trend recently, on the whole, the raw material end is still high and strong. At present, the latest price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1310 / ton, that in Southeast Asia is US $1360 / ton, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene is 8500 yuan / ton today, which is the same as that of the previous trading day. In the downstream, each region is affected by the epidemic to varying degrees, which makes it difficult for the overall demand to make up quickly, and the space for repair is limited in the short term. Affected by profit margins, ethylene oxide production load remained low.

Forecast: temporarily stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of dimethyl ether in Henan was 4310.00 yuan / ton on April 18 and 4290.00 yuan / ton on April 19, with a single day decline of 0.46%, an increase of 3.21% compared with March 1.

On the 19th, the domestic dimethyl ether Market Price weakened, some manufacturers in Henan market lowered the ex factory price twice, the Hebei and Shandong markets were stable in the middle and down, the current market support was insufficient, the civil market of raw methanol and related products liquefied gas was weak, and the market mentality was bad. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will continue to decline in the short term.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (April 18): 7500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s cryolite market is stable and small, and the average production price in Henan increased by 0.33% compared with the previous working day. At present, the production cost pressure of cryolite manufacturers is high, the operating rate of enterprises is reduced, the inventory is reduced, the downstream demand is stable, the mentality of operators is more on the sidelines, and the quotation of cryolite market is strong.

Crystal Market: wait and see the short-term supply of crystal market.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week, from 2930.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2938.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.27%, up 39.02% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On April 14, the urea commodity index was 136.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.60% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 145.45% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is sufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3150 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2880 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2920 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 7216.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 6804.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 5.71%, a year-on-year increase of 100.71% compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have been stable recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4953.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4986.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.67%, a year-on-year increase of 28.30% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 11766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11233.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.53%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is weakened and industrial demand is normal. At the end of spring ploughing, sporadic subsidies are made in the downstream. At present, the shipment of urea in some areas is blocked, the freight rate rises sharply, and the transportation situation will improve in the later stage. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea has returned to more than 160000 tons. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is high, the transportation is limited, and the future urea mainly fluctuates and falls in a narrow range.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle and late April, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the upstream market fell slightly and the cost support was general. Spring ploughing has entered the end, mainly sporadic procurement. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant and plate plant is high, and the downstream demand is normal. On the whole, the cost support of urea is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is sufficient. In the future, the urea mainly fluctuates and falls slightly.