According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 2, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 8588 yuan / ton, down 0.05% from the previous trading day and up 23.69% year-on-year. The main contract of domestic staple fiber futures closed at 8246 in the morning, down 1.46% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the settlement price today was 8250. Short fiber raw material futures closed down today, with PTA main force down 0.53% and ethylene glycol main force down 0.24%.

The international oil price corrected overnight and continued its decline today. US oil fell nearly 2%, hitting a four-day low of US $113 / barrel. As the sixth round of EU sanctions against Russia failed to pass as scheduled, and the Biden government expressed that it still hopes to contact Saudi Arabia, the market will take this as a concrete measure for the government to actively reduce energy costs. Pay special attention to the results of the OPEC ministerial meeting this evening. The decline of oil price dragged down the polyester industry chain, and PTA, ethylene glycol and staple fiber all fell today. PTA unit load decreased and continued to be removed from the warehouse. Recently, the price continued to be adjusted at a high level and the downstream was cautious. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol have improved recently, but the surplus expectation is difficult to change. Short fiber supply is expected to increase in the near future. The startup rate of pure polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets declined, and the downstream maintained the focus on just needed procurement. The enterprise’s shipping psychology was dominant, and the transaction was negotiated on a preferential basis. Affected by the epidemic blockade and economic downturn, the demand recovery of terminal fabric garment industry is difficult in the short term.

It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber will show a strong trend of shock under the support of strong cost.

On June 1, the acetic anhydride market was strong and stable temporarily

According to the monitoring data of business club, the price of acetic anhydride was strong and stable temporarily on June 1, and the market of acetic anhydride was stable temporarily. On June 1, the price of acetic anhydride was 8550.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of acetic anhydride of 8550 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The price of acetic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the overall market of acetic anhydride is stabilizing at a high level.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, the price of methanol fluctuated and fell, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride was strongly adjusted, some acetic acid enterprises started to operate stably, the supply of acetic acid was stable, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, the sales of acetic anhydride was poor, the downstream just needed to purchase, the customer’s willingness to purchase was general, the main thing was to wait and see, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline was weakened, and the upward momentum was large.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for rising costs is poor, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride is still strong. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be adjusted by strong shocks in the future.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major local refiners in China in May was 5172.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4812.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 359.75 yuan / ton during the month and a monthly decrease of 6.96%.

On May 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 374.31, down 6.43 points from yesterday, down 8.41% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (May 11, 2022), and up 459.59% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in May, the price of locally refined petroleum coke fluctuated and rose, and the market trading was general. In late May, the imported coke was concentrated in Hong Kong, and the petroleum coke market supply increased. The refinery actively reduced the price and shipped the coke actively.

Upstream: in May, international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke fell as a whole in May; Metal silicon market fell; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated. As of May 31, the price was 20760.00 yuan / ton. Downstream carbon enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood and mainly purchase on demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business agency predicted that: the international crude oil price is high, and the price cost of petroleum coke for local refining is supported; However, recently, the inventory of imported coke has increased, the supply of petroleum coke in the market has increased, the refinery has actively shipped, and the downstream carbon enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly on demand. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may continue to decline in the near future.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on May 30 was 4966.67 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The year-on-year decrease was 0.47%.

At present, ethylene glycol is mainly adjusted along with crude oil. Today, the futures are stronger, the spot market price in Zhangjiagang is higher, and the basis negotiation is stable. The inventory of major ports in East China decreased slightly, but remained high overall. As of May 30, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 1170700 tons, a decrease of 7100 tons, or 0.60%, compared with last Monday, and a decrease of 13800 tons, or 1.17%, compared with last Thursday. The outer disk market fluctuated in a narrow range today, and the recent negotiated price of cargo was around us $610 / ton. The atmosphere of actual orders in the market is general. The production and sales in the polyester market are light, mainly based on contracts. The demand for replenishment is not urgent, and there is no significant substantive improvement in the fundamentals for the time being.

Forecast: low range fluctuation.

In May, the overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market was weak. The civil gas market in Shandong was first high and then low, and the overall focus moved downward. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in the civil Shandong market was 6340.00 yuan / ton on May 1 and 6150.00 yuan / ton on May 26, a decrease of 3.00% in the month and an increase of 47.60% over the same period last year.

As of May 26, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

North China, 6000-6250 yuan / ton

South China, 6050-6330 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 5800-6000 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 6100-6250 yuan / ton

In May, the domestic liquefied gas market as a whole fell. The price of Shandong civil gas market only rose significantly at the beginning of the month, and then fell in the late period. After the May Day holiday, the international crude oil rose significantly during the holiday period, which brought support to the market in terms of cost. In addition, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the holiday, with good enthusiasm for entering the market, mild market trading atmosphere and strong upward prices. However, in the later stage, with the weather heating up significantly, liquefied gas ushered in the traditional off-season demand, and the terminal demand was weak. After the downstream replenishment, it was mainly delisted to wait and see, and the market trading atmosphere was limited. In addition, the supply of Shandong civil gas market increased in the later period, which brought some bad news.

The shock and fall of LPG futures market in May brought limited support to the spot market. On May 26, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2207 was 5846, the highest price was 6064, the lowest price was 5826, the closing price was 6059, the previous settlement price was 5833, the settlement price was 5940, up 226, the trading volume was 149043, the position was 69828, and the daily position was increased by 4095. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the continuous rise of international crude oil has brought obvious support to the market, but the negative factors still exist in the market. With the arrival of the off-season, the weak end demand situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited. In addition, compared with previous years, the price of liquefied gas this year is at a higher level, and the price rise is difficult. It is expected that the market price of Shandong civil gas may continue to be weak in June.