Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

The domestic phenol market continued to rise. The negotiation price in East China rose to 8950 yuan / ton from the low of 8350 yuan / ton last week. The unexpected shutdown of a factory at the beginning of the week boosted the market. In addition, the average price of contracts in the month was high, and the cost was high. The mood of shippers was strong. With the increase of downstream inquiries, the focus of negotiation was significantly improved, but the terminal was still dominated by rigid demand, some factories replenished appropriately, and the participation of intermediate traders was not large, Pay attention to the trading situation on the floor.

At the opening of the day, lihuayi increased by 300 to 9000 yuan / ton, which significantly boosted the market. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will continue to push up. It is expected that the East China market negotiation today will be 9100-9250 yuan / ton

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 19):2637 yuan / ton

On July 19, the domestic comprehensive price of urea fell slightly, down 32 yuan / ton from July 18, a decrease of 1.20%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.14%. The upstream cost support is general, the downstream agricultural demand follows up on demand, and the industrial demand is mainly rigid demand. India released a new round of bidding information, boosting market confidence. During the overhaul of some manufacturers in Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Anhui, the daily output of urea decreased and the supply pressure eased.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may rebound at the bottom, and the average market price is about 2680 yuan / ton.

On the 18th, the domestic NMP market price was temporarily stable, and the average price of the electronic grade market was 33000 yuan / ton, with no rise or fall compared with the previous day and a decrease of 2.22% compared with the 30th. Middlemen have a strong willingness to support prices, and downstream buyers are insufficient, mainly small orders. The cost of raw materials fell further, which dragged down the cost, and the NMP price was easy to fall but difficult to rise.

Upstream BDO: the focus of BDO market is down. At present, the market news is light, the downstream market is more wait-and-see, the demand follow-up is limited and the price is depressed. The holding manufacturers have insufficient confidence in trading, and the actual orders are negotiated for profit, and the focus is on the low end.

NMP analysts of business club believe that the NNP market is relatively strong, and the actual focus of negotiation has shifted downward. It is expected that the NMP market will be weak in the near future.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

This week, the domestic phenol market continued to fall, domestic factories made several adjustments, and the market continued to bottom out. As of the weekend, the mainstream offer of several major domestic factories was 8600-9400 yuan / ton, and the reference value negotiated in the East China market was 8300-8400 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the port stock increased to 38000 tons, and the pressure of early quotation and shipment from the cargo holders was great. The market fell due to the loss of profits. Recently, the theoretical losses of phenol and ketone enterprises have increased, and the terminal demand is expected to be difficult to improve. Considering the impact of cost and average price, it is expected that the short-term operation is still weak, and we should always pay attention to the trends of petrochemical enterprises on the site.

This week, the market and factory prices have been falling all the way, with obvious declines. Terminal enterprises have increased wait-and-see, and there is great pressure on shippers to continue to make profits. It is expected that there are still downward risks in the market opening next week. The mainstream offer in East China is 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

On July 15, phenol offers in various markets across the country were as follows (weekly rises and falls were calculated on the 7th):

Region, Quotation, Weekly rise and fall

East China, 8350., – one thousand and three hundred

Shandong region, 8750., – one thousand one hundred and fifty

Surrounding areas of Yanshan, 8770., – one thousand and two hundred

South China, 8450., – one thousand and three hundred

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong fell from 8900.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 45.03% over the same period last year. On July 10, the isooctanol commodity index was 63.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.65% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 81.31% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream demand

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week: Jianlan chemical octanol plant is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 8600 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that of last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 8800 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7680.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7460.60 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.86%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.31% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Judging from the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. The DOP price fell from 9550.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9375.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.83%, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.81%. Downstream DOP prices fell sharply, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened.

The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and isooctanol is bearish in the future

In the middle of July, Shandong isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business society, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate and decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.