1、 Price data

As of April 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8133.33 yuan / ton, up 0.84% from 8065.75 yuan / ton on April 15. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8100-8200 yuan / ton.

As of April 29, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8020.00 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 7882.50 yuan / ton on April 15. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8000-8100 yuan / ton.

On April 29, the naphtha commodity index was 100.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.48% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 137.64% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In late April, the price of refined naphtha first rose and then fell. In the middle of April, the naphtha market was well traded, refineries actively pushed up, the demand for terminal olefins and reforming increased, and some enterprises began to stock up before the festival; At the end of the month, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly good, the logistics recovered slowly, and the market transaction was general.

Upstream: under the background that international crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disturb the market, it will aggravate the expectation of tightening oil supply in the future. In addition, in terms of other supply factors, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has continued the gradual and small increase in production policy, which will stabilize the tightening of crude oil supply, with little effect. The OPEC monthly meeting may be held on May 5. Considering the binding interests of OPEC and its Russian allies, the possibility of policy change is small. The market generally expects that there is a high possibility of a small increase in production in June. On the whole, the trend of crude oil prices rose in April.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene fell in late April. The price was 7220 yuan / ton on April 15 and 7320 yuan / ton on April 29, up 1.39%. The price of mixed xylene fell in late April. The price was 7200 yuan / ton on April 15 and 7330 yuan / ton on April 29, with a price increase of 1.81%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene in late April was downward. The price was 9300 yuan / ton on April 15 and 8900 yuan / ton on April 29, with the price falling by 4.30%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the recent trading of naphtha market is general, and the demand for terminal olefins and reorganization is not significantly good. Some enterprises prepare goods before the festival, but the overall demand is general, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C was 40 yuan / kg, with no rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the purchase of vitamin C in the domestic market improved slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price of feed grade is 35-38 yuan / kg, and the mainstream price of feed grade is 38-40 yuan / kg. The factory continues to stop reporting, and the actual situation is a single discussion. The downstream rigid demand is the main thing, and the price negotiation is the main thing.

Upstream: the price of corn fluctuated higher. It is expected that most of the time in May, the price of corn in the main domestic production areas will continue to be stable and slightly strong, and it is very difficult for the price to fall substantially.

The price of vitamin A fell this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin A was 232 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 224 yuan / kg at the weekend, down 3.66%. The quotation in the European market is 63-68 euros / kg. Recently, the production and sales of the market are weak, and the price focus is downward.

The price of vitamin E decreased slightly this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin E was 92 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 91 yuan / kg at the weekend, a decrease of 1.26%. The European market quotation this week is 9.9-11.5 euros / kg. Recently, affected by the epidemic, the market supply has tightened, the market attention has increased, and the price has a strong upward trend.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business community believes that: Overall, the demand is general, and the overall vitamin market is weak and difficult to change. In the future, pay close attention to the opening and parking status and delivery of enterprises.

Latest price (April 28): 8700 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 20, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8700 yuan / ton, down 0.11% from the previous trading day and 2.93% year-on-year. At present, the market trading is relatively flat, the enthusiasm of the downstream products industry to prepare goods before the festival is not high, and the raw material price is down, the cost side and demand side are both weak, the PVC price continues to decline, and the market transaction is dominated by negotiation. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 3900-4100 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8450-8950 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to weaken.

Latest price (April 27): 8710 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 27, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8710 yuan / ton, down 0.91% from the previous trading day and 2.55% year-on-year. At present, the market trading is relatively flat, the price of raw materials is down, the cost side and demand side are both weak, and the price of PVC manufacturers continues to fall. The actual transactions are mostly negotiation, and the industry is cautious. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 3900-4100 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8500-9000 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to adjust in a narrow range.

Commodity market: according to the monitoring of the business agency, on April 26, Shanghai Rubber continued to fluctuate and the range narrowed. The main force closed at 12635 yuan / ton, and the market spot market adjusted with the market. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 12260 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from the quotation of the previous trading day and down 7.57% year-on-year.

Industry analysis: macroscopically, domestic public health events have a wide impact, affecting the supply of raw materials, circulation and sales of finished products; Internationally, the International Monetary Fund lowered global economic growth. Supply side: Thailand’s current output increases and prices fall; The Yunnan production area fully opened cutting, and the output increased. The Hainan production area opened cutting at the end of April and the beginning of May, and entered the full rubber cutting period around the middle of May, which is expected to increase significantly. Demand side: Recently, affected by public health incidents, transportation has been blocked, and short-distance transportation in some areas has improved. The data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week was 58.77%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points over the previous week and a decrease of 17.28 percentage points over the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tire was 67.62%, down 0.99 percentage points from the previous week. Secondly, the demand for tire exports has declined, the current situation has affected the import and export trade of finished products, which is difficult to recover in the short term, the domestic shipment is blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products continues to increase. According to the data of the passenger car Federation, the national passenger car market was affected by the consumption downturn in 2022. In the first quarter, the cumulative retail sales of the national passenger car market decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the overall trend was lower than expected; The temporary standstill of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic has caused huge losses, and the impact of supply interruption of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales volume in the second quarter. In terms of inventory: the futures inventory of the previous period increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipt decreased slightly; In Qingdao Free Trade Zone, affected by demand, the process of natural rubber inventory elimination is slow. Import and export: the data show that in March 2022, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.

Future forecast: the expectation of global economic growth is lowered, domestic public health events are divergent at many points, China’s industrial product circulation system is blocked, raw material delivery pressure is high, car enterprises in some serious areas stop production, downstream demand slows down, the pressure of spot finished products continues to increase, the commencement of production enterprises is blocked, and the future market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile.