1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of the business community, bromine prices rose as a whole in May. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 55400 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 57600 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 3.97% and a year-on-year increase of 32.41%. On May 30, the bromine commodity index was 201.40, up 0.7 points from yesterday, down 17.86% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 241.82% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices rose as a whole this month. Currently, the mainstream prices of Shandong enterprises are about 57000-58000 yuan / ton. The output of bromine enterprises has increased, but the growth is relatively slow. The manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. The imported bromine is insufficient, and the downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry can support bromine in the near future.

In terms of raw materials, sulfur prices rose in May as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 3586.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 4043.33 yuan / ton, up 12.73%, 158.64% over the same period last year. The sulfur market fluctuated. Some refineries were still in the maintenance stage, with limited enterprise output, no pressure on inventory, tight domestic supply, and stable downstream demand. Sulfur refineries’ quotations were raised according to their own shipping conditions. In the later stage, the sulfur prices at ports fell, the market atmosphere weakened, and the quotations of individual refineries were lowered. However, the overall market performance was in short supply, and the downstream demand was good.

According to the analysts of the business community, bromine prices have risen recently. There is no inventory pressure on enterprises, and the output increase is less than expected. Bromine enterprises have more prices, and the support of bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry is OK. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine prices will run better, depending on the downstream market demand.

In May, the market of nitrile rubber declined in a weak way. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of nitrile rubber at the beginning of the month was 24550 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 22750 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.33% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In May, the domestic nitrile rubber operating rate was close to 80%, and the supply side was relatively sufficient; Downstream product enterprises started at a low level, and the demand side was slightly weak. The ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises was adjusted downward by 500~800 yuan / ton. As of May 31, the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile n41e was 22500 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3305e is 22800 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3308e is 23800 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of Nandi nitrile 1052 is 23600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 1051 is 24000 yuan / ton.

Ex factory price of domestic nitrile rubber as of May 31

Enterprise, Nitrile brand, Ex factory price

Lanzhou Petrochemical, N41., twenty-two thousand and five hundred

Lanzhou Petrochemical, 3305., twenty-two thousand and eight hundred

Lanzhou Petrochemical, 3308., twenty-three thousand and eight hundred

Zhenjiang Nandi, 1051., twenty-four thousand

Zhenjiang Nandi, 1052., twenty-three thousand and six hundred

Sipur, Russia two thousand six hundred and sixty-five twenty-two thousand

Sipur, Russia three thousand three hundred and sixty-five twenty-two thousand and four hundred

In May, the price of raw butadiene rose sharply, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated slightly, and the cost side was supported. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, the price of butadiene was 11274 yuan / ton, up 14.86% from 9816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 31, the price of acrylonitrile was 11460 yuan / ton, down 0.87% from 11560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business club believe that the supply and demand side is weak, but the cost side is supported. It is expected that the price of NBR will continue to fluctuate in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 2, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 8588 yuan / ton, down 0.05% from the previous trading day and up 23.69% year-on-year. The main contract of domestic staple fiber futures closed at 8246 in the morning, down 1.46% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the settlement price today was 8250. Short fiber raw material futures closed down today, with PTA main force down 0.53% and ethylene glycol main force down 0.24%.

The international oil price corrected overnight and continued its decline today. US oil fell nearly 2%, hitting a four-day low of US $113 / barrel. As the sixth round of EU sanctions against Russia failed to pass as scheduled, and the Biden government expressed that it still hopes to contact Saudi Arabia, the market will take this as a concrete measure for the government to actively reduce energy costs. Pay special attention to the results of the OPEC ministerial meeting this evening. The decline of oil price dragged down the polyester industry chain, and PTA, ethylene glycol and staple fiber all fell today. PTA unit load decreased and continued to be removed from the warehouse. Recently, the price continued to be adjusted at a high level and the downstream was cautious. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol have improved recently, but the surplus expectation is difficult to change. Short fiber supply is expected to increase in the near future. The startup rate of pure polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets declined, and the downstream maintained the focus on just needed procurement. The enterprise’s shipping psychology was dominant, and the transaction was negotiated on a preferential basis. Affected by the epidemic blockade and economic downturn, the demand recovery of terminal fabric garment industry is difficult in the short term.

It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber will show a strong trend of shock under the support of strong cost.

On June 1, the acetic anhydride market was strong and stable temporarily

According to the monitoring data of business club, the price of acetic anhydride was strong and stable temporarily on June 1, and the market of acetic anhydride was stable temporarily. On June 1, the price of acetic anhydride was 8550.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of acetic anhydride of 8550 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The price of acetic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the overall market of acetic anhydride is stabilizing at a high level.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fluctuated and rose, the price of methanol fluctuated and fell, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride was strongly adjusted, some acetic acid enterprises started to operate stably, the supply of acetic acid was stable, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, the sales of acetic anhydride was poor, the downstream just needed to purchase, the customer’s willingness to purchase was general, the main thing was to wait and see, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline was weakened, and the upward momentum was large.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for rising costs is poor, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride is still strong. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be adjusted by strong shocks in the future.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major local refiners in China in May was 5172.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4812.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 359.75 yuan / ton during the month and a monthly decrease of 6.96%.

On May 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 374.31, down 6.43 points from yesterday, down 8.41% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (May 11, 2022), and up 459.59% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in May, the price of locally refined petroleum coke fluctuated and rose, and the market trading was general. In late May, the imported coke was concentrated in Hong Kong, and the petroleum coke market supply increased. The refinery actively reduced the price and shipped the coke actively.

Upstream: in May, international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke fell as a whole in May; Metal silicon market fell; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated. As of May 31, the price was 20760.00 yuan / ton. Downstream carbon enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood and mainly purchase on demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business agency predicted that: the international crude oil price is high, and the price cost of petroleum coke for local refining is supported; However, recently, the inventory of imported coke has increased, the supply of petroleum coke in the market has increased, the refinery has actively shipped, and the downstream carbon enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly on demand. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may continue to decline in the near future.