According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, the recent mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has been adjusted. On the 7th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8191.67 yuan/ton, and on the 14th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8225.00 yuan/ton, up 0.82%. The price fell 8.86% year on year.

 

styrene

 

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Styrene market price retreated this week. It can be seen from the above figure that recently, the price of styrene has mainly fallen in shock, and this week, the price has slightly warmed up. The main reason is that the price of styrene has reached a low level, the domestic supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is strong, which has played a certain role in supporting the price of styrene, and the spot price of styrene has bottomed out.

 

In terms of raw materials, this week’s pure benzene fluctuated. On November 4, the price of pure benzene was 6900-7050 yuan/ton (the average price was 6967 yuan/ton). On Friday (November 11), the price of pure benzene was 6900-7050 yuan/ton (the average price was 6976 yuan/ton). The average price was 0.13% higher than last week and 8.34% lower than the same period last year. Crude oil fell, and the downstream market was poor. The fundamentals of pure benzene were weak, and the center of gravity was weak. In the second half of the week, pure benzene rose slightly due to the rise of crude oil and styrene and the improvement of downstream purchasing.

 

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell at different levels this week. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10100 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10066 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The raw material surface continues to vibrate in the box, the on-site trading atmosphere is not good, the downstream procurement is lack of interest, the merchant shipping resistance still exists, and the firm offer is flexible and profitable.

 

EPS prices fell this week. Overall transaction weakened month on month. On the 7th, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11025 yuan/ton, and on the 14th, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 10950 yuan/ton. The buying enthusiasm was not high, the EPS market price was weak, and the terminal demand was sluggish. The manufacturer lowered the price in order to maintain the shipment.

 

The domestic ABS market fluctuated slightly in early November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic ABS was 12000 yuan/ton on November 7 and 12050 yuan/ton on November 14, with a weekly increase or decrease of+0.42% and – 26.75% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the load of ABS industry is high, and the plant commencement is generally maintained at a high level of 80% to 90%, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. The market competition is strengthened, the pressure on suppliers is highlighted, and petrochemical plants have reduced the factory price to take delivery.

 

In the near future, the pure benzene inventory is still at a high level, and the market is hardly expected to rise sharply. The demand side performs well. The domestic styrene will maintain normal production, and the styrene market is expected to rise slightly.

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Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

 

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It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 17.81% year on year.

 

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX’s external market has declined slightly. As of October 10, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 974-976 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 992-994 dollars/ton CFR China. The decline of external market price is bad for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has slightly increased. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has increased, and the domestic market trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

 

The price of crude oil fell slightly this week. As of the 10th day, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States had reached 86.47 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures had reached 93.67 dollars/barrel. The oil demand forecast in Asia is still uncertain. With the US mid-term election looming, market concerns about demand have depressed oil prices. In addition, the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday was negative, and the growth of crude oil inventory last week exceeded expectations. The price of crude oil declined slightly, and the domestic market price of paraxylene was temporarily stable due to this impact.

 

The downstream PTA market price fell slightly this week, and the average PTA market price was 5700-5750 yuan/ton as of the 11th day. The commissioning of new devices has been the main negative factor to suppress the PTA price in recent months, which has been partly reflected in the price. With the implementation of new devices, the supply of PTA has gradually increased. The current PTA operating rate is around 74.5%, and the supply is more relaxed than the previous period. At present, it is in the traditional peak season of the textile industry. As the temperature gradually drops, there is a potential demand for periodic bargain hunting. Domestic orders for cold proof and warm insulation textiles and clothing fabrics in autumn and winter have improved on a month on month basis. The purchase volume in Europe and other places has rebounded. The purchase of blankets and electric blankets in Yiwu has been significantly boosted. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is maintained at around 57%. However, on the whole, terminal orders are mainly small and medium-sized orders. On the whole, the downstream market has not changed much. Affected by this, the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

 

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is a long short game, and the short-term price will remain volatile. The downstream commencement of the terminal has little change. Although the overall demand is maintained, the overall supply of PTA may gradually increase, and the price has downward pressure. It is expected that there may be a small decline in the market price of dimethylbenzene in the later period.

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Zinc price rose continuously in November

 

According to the data monitoring of the business community, after the continuous fall of the zinc price, the zinc price rose in November. As of November 8, the zinc price was 24668 yuan/ton, up 6.61% from 23138 yuan/ton on November 1. The continuous fall of zinc price stimulated the turnover and accumulation of zinc market. The inventory of zinc market fell sharply and the supply of zinc was tight. In November, the zinc price rose for five consecutive times.

 

The inventory of zinc ingots in the zinc market dropped sharply

Statistical table of zinc futures inventory in Shanghai futures market

Time, futures inventory, increase and decrease

October 10., 12865., – 1251

October 11., 12638., – 227

October 12, 13041, 403

October 13., 13165., 124

October 14., 16329., 3164

October 17, 42,080, 25,751

October 18, 45164, 3084

October 19., 44990., – 174

October 20., 40900., – 4090

October 21., 38815., – 2085

October 24., 37087., – 1728

October 25.,, 32335., – 4752

October 26., 30228., – 2107

October 27, 27,460., – 2768

October 28., 22669., – 4791

October 31., 17,935., – 4734

November 1, 11318, – 6617

November 2., 5347., – 5971

November 3., 1396., – 3951

November 4., 842., – 554

November 7., 644., – 198

November 8., 644., 0

It can be seen from the zinc ingot inventory table of Shanghai futures market that since the middle of October, the demand of zinc market is expected to recover, and the inventory of Shanghai futures market has declined, while the continuous drop of zinc price at the end of October has further stimulated the enthusiasm of zinc market. By November, the zinc inventory had dropped 6617 tons on the first day, and the zinc market’s inventory had no way to drop, and the zinc price had risen.

 

Zinc ingot inventory in London futures market

Time, futures inventory, increase and decrease

October 3., 53,625., 0

October 4., 53425., – 200

October 5., 53350., – 75

October 6., 53325., – 25

October 7., 53475., 150

October 10., 53300., – 175

October 11., 53,275., – 25

October 12,. 53100., – 175

October 13,. 51,925., – 1175

October 14., 51500., – 425

October 17, 51350, – 150

October 18., 51225., – 125

October 19., 51200., – 25

October 20., 50925., – 275

October 21., 50600., – 325

October 24., 50575., – 25

October 25., 49825., – 750

October 26., 48925., – 900

October 27., 48175., – 750

October 28., 47400., – 775

October 31., 45525., – 1875

November 1., 44825., – 700

November 2., 44225., – 600

November 3., 44175., – 50

November 4, 44050, – 125

November 7, 43850., – 200

November 8., 43675., – 175

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

It can be seen from the zinc ingot inventory table in London futures market that since October, the zinc ingot inventory in London market has been declining continuously, and the speed has reached the peak around November. The supply of zinc ingots in the international market is insufficient, and the inventory of zinc market continues to decline. At the end of October, the continuous fall of zinc price stimulated the purchasing enthusiasm of zinc market, and the inventory of zinc ingots dropped significantly. However, with the continuous increase of zinc price, the purchasing enthusiasm of zinc market declined. The reduction of zinc ingot inventory slowed down.

 

Future market forecast

 

According to the data analysts of the business community; The general background of weak supply and demand in the zinc market has not fundamentally changed. The demand in the zinc market in October did not perform as expected, and the zinc price fell continuously. However, the falling zinc price stimulated downstream customers’ desire to copy the bottom, and the zinc ingot inventory plummeted. The supply of zinc is temporarily in short supply, and the price of zinc has risen continuously in November. However, the overall balance of supply and demand in the zinc market has not been broken. With the decline of zinc ingot inventory, the rise of zinc price has slowed down. It is expected that the future zinc price will fall slightly in the short term, and the medium and long term zinc price will be adjusted in a wide range.

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According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 3930 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 16.38% year on year.

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

This week, the price trend of the domestic ammonium nitrate market was temporarily stable. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal. The goods on the site were generally shipped. The manufacturer’s inventory was not high. The price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal rose. In addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly. The price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal, but the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started to work. Recently, the price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

 

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2333.33yuan/ton, unchanged from the price at the beginning of the week. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2150 yuan/ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid in the market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market is normal. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the market remains stable, the price of raw nitric acid supports the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

 

The price of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week. As of October 7, the price of liquid ammonia was 4330 yuan/ton, 5.27% higher than the price of 4113.33 yuan/ton on October 31. Domestic dealers generally reported high, with an increase of more than 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the supply pressure in this region is not large, the inventory pressure of large factories is relieved, the self consumption is increased, and the export volume is reduced. Since this week, the large factories in Shandong have generally raised the price twice, with a range of more than 100 yuan. Downstream demand is mainly supported by demand. After the urea market rebounded at the end of last month, the supply and demand in this region are basically balanced, and the mainstream price in the market is 4250-4350 yuan/ton. The rising price of upstream liquid ammonia has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

 

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry may gradually start, the price of liquid ammonia market will rise, the price trend of nitric acid will be temporarily stable, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate will be normal. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the later period.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of mixed xylene fell by a narrow margin this week, and the price in South China was temporarily stable. The price was 8230 yuan/ton on October 28; On Friday (November 4), the price was 8060 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week and up 22.68% from the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and review

 

The demand for downstream chemical products remains weak, the demand for terminal gasoline becomes weak, the demand side of mixed xylene performs poorly, and the price drops weakly. However, the supply of mixed xylene continued to be tight, and the enterprise’s inventory was low, supporting the price. The decline was limited within the week.

 

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market rebounded after falling this week. On Thursday (November 3), South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $952.5 per ton, a year-on-year drop of US $36 per ton, or 3.64%.

 

In terms of crude oil, the economic data performed better than expected. Superimposed on the decline of the US dollar, the US crude oil and gasoline stocks declined. OPEC+promoted production reduction. The demand of the oil market may improve. The overall international oil price rose this week. As of November 4, Brent prices this week rose by 2.8 dollars/barrel, or 2.92%, compared with last week; WTI rose $4.71 per barrel, or 5.36%.

 

In terms of downstream, in terms of PX, domestic PX fell broadly this week. On October 28, the price was 9300 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 8600 yuan/ton, 7.53% lower than last week, and 17.81% higher than the same period last year.

 

In terms of OX, the price of OX in East China fell this week. On October 28, it was 9600 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 9300 yuan/ton, down 3.12% from last week and up 27.05% from the same period last year.

 

In terms of gasoline, gasoline rebounded slightly after falling this week. On October 28, the price was 8329 yuan/ton, and on November 4, it was 8179 yuan/ton, 1.8% lower than last week, and 1.33% higher than the same period last year.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

In terms of crude oil, in the later stage, the macro and supply and demand sides are still good for the oil market, and the oil price may be stronger in the future. However, before the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia comes into effect, the oil market is still uncertain due to the disturbance of geopolitical factors. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

 

Although there is still support on the supply side, the demand side has depressed the mixed xylene market. In general, mixed xylene still continues to operate in a weak position. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory, and external market on the price of mixed xylene.

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