In early March, the domestic ABS market showed weak consolidation, with most spot prices of various grades experiencing a narrow decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11162.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.54% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Since early March, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has been narrowly increased, and the load has fluctuated by around 2% to 74% in the first ten days. The average weekly production has increased to over 130000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is 180000 tons, slightly lower than the end of February, but the overall supply of goods remains abundant. The improvement of orders in petrochemical plants is limited, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery, resulting in a high incidence of discounted orders. Overall, the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices within ten days is average.

Cost factor: In early March, the upstream three materials of ABS showed weak trends, which did not provide good support for the cost side of ABS. The price of acrylonitrile has fallen to touch the theoretical production cost line, and the market downturn has slowed down recently. The high load of 89% in the industry has put pressure on the supply side, and the company’s profit situation is showing losses. Combined with the follow-up of new production capacity in the future, the rebound of acrylonitrile market still lacks momentum.

The butadiene market continued to fluctuate and show a weak trend within the next ten days. The overall market supply is relatively loose, and holders are unable to raise prices. The downstream synthetic rubber market trend is still weak, and under the weak supply-demand pattern, the butadiene market continued to delay its weak operation trend this week.

Styrene showed a significant decline in early March. The international oil prices in the remote upstream have fallen, and the support on the raw material side is poor. On the supply side, it is constrained by high port inventory, while downstream demand is hindered by increased production resistance. Currently, styrene continues to decline due to cost and demand constraints, and it is expected to consolidate and operate after a short-term market downturn.

On the demand side: On the terminal side, we will continue the previous flat pattern, and after the downstream buying stagnation in early March. The load increase of the terminal factory in the inquiry is not significant, and the purchasing logic tends to be weak in demand and bottom fishing. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing is sluggish, and the flow of goods is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell in early March. The three upstream materials all fell, providing poor comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly increased, and inventory has been slightly digested but still remains at a high level. The demand side expansion is still slow, and downstream enterprises have insufficient consumption. Business analysts believe that the ABS market has strong supply and weak demand, and is under pressure from a decrease in cost value. In the short term, the market will continue to be dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market has been consolidating and operating recently, with a downward trend in price focus. The spot price of aniline in East China is 9100-9200 yuan/ton, with an acceptance price of 9250 yuan/ton. It is reported that international oil prices have weakened due to concerns about the impact of US tariffs on global growth and oil demand. The supply and demand support for pure benzene is weak, and the US Gulf price continues to fall below the price of pure benzene in South Korea, leading to bearish market sentiment. The production of aniline on the supply side is stable, but downstream demand has entered the market. Due to the decline in pure benzene prices and insufficient market information, some factories have slightly lowered their prices. The cost side is bearish, and there is insufficient follow-up from the demand side. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market experienced a weak decline in early March. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8366 yuan/ton. On March 6th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59%.

Loose supply leads to weak decline in domestic adipic acid market

In early March, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid continued to weaken, with sluggish demand in the terminal industry. The supply of adipic acid in the market was loose, and the prices of adipic acid manufacturers and traders continued to decline. The market transaction volume was average, and the sales were poor. The average market price of adipic acid has dropped to 7750-8100 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid March, due to poor demand in the terminal industry and a weak decline in raw material prices, the adipic acid market will continue to decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic lithium carbonate operated weakly in early March. As of March 5th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 76700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.66% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 28.58% from 107400 yuan/ton in the same period last year; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 74500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.49% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 24.29% from 98400 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

The destocking cycle has ended, and the situation of oversupply is difficult to change

At present, the operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is about 45%, which has increased compared to before the holiday. The inventory of lithium carbonate has ended and continues to accumulate, resulting in a serious overall supply-demand imbalance.

Downstream demand is improving, but overall growth rate is slowing down

The production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate has increased after the holiday. Although the first quarter was a low season for energy storage demand, some battery cell factories stocked up in advance, driving up the demand for lithium carbonate and increasing the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate enterprises.

Market forecast: The situation of oversupply of lithium carbonate is difficult to change, and it is difficult for the demand side to balance the pressure on the supply side. The upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly in the short term.

The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the price of isooctanol was 7666.67 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 1.71% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on February 1st; Compared to February 15th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 4.37% to 8016.67 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the demand for isooctanol has decreased due to restocking; With the end of replenishment, the price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen, and the demand for isooctanol has decreased, increasing the downward pressure on isooctanol.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices first rose and then fell in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the DOP price was 8326.25 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.92% compared to the DOP price of 8576.25 yuan/ton on February 1st. After the holiday, the inventory will be replenished, and the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise; With the end of replenishment, the price of plasticizers fluctuated and fell; The production of plasticizer DOP enterprises has fallen, and the supply of plasticizer DOP has tightened; The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, and the downward pressure on isooctanol increased.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, the downstream demand for isooctanol increased first and then decreased in February, and the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. In the future, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises will decrease, the production of plasticizers will decrease, and the demand for isooctanol will decrease. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future.